Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?
- Thread starter manwithnoname
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You misunderstand, I did not suggest you need someone to cough in your face. When someone coughs there is a locally high concentration of virus in that location. It will eventually be diluted by various mechanisms. Obviously once it is diluted then it is below the "viral load", or else everyone would be dropping dead at this stage. So the infection is only transmitted when you pass through a relatively concentrate cloud of cough droplets. I'm not saying that's instantly after someone coughed in your face. That could be 20, 30, 60 minutes that it takes for the cloud to effectively diffuse. Not all of the droplets descend to the ground, plenty will be buoyant enough to remain in the air indefinitely.
As you go about your day, the majority of the air will be safe, again everyone would be dropping dead if that were not the case. So it's only on sporadic occasions you'll be unfortunate enough to pass through a sufficiently concentrated cloud of droplets. For that to coincide with the moment you inhale your 500ml of air would be another bit of misfortune. I'd take those chances. If you have a mask on, then whilst walking around you are building up more and more droplets on the mask, concentrating them on the fibres. I wouldn't take those chances because you risk getting infected even if you haven't walked through a concentrated cloud of droplets.
I think this graph is from the Taiwanese government (who have reported 0 new cases again today):
Population 24 million. Total deaths 6.
They don't know what they're on about
Well you did say that the chance of transmission was zero without someone coughing. However the logic in this post of yours is sound except for that concerning the 'mask'. Because the mask effectively reduces the chance you'll become infected even further.
If we use the graphic Rurik posted on the previous page you can see that possible infection by a non-carrier in the proximity of a carrier is reduced from a theoretical 100% to 70% by a non carrier wearing a mask and that if both people wear masks that transmission rate is down to 1.5%.
That alone would seem to indicate that everyone should be wearing a mask (especially so since around 20% of people with CV-19 are asymptomatic and likely wouldn't know they are carrying the virus, greatly increasing the chance of transmission if neither are wearing masks).
I think I said that in reference to if nobody had symptoms and therefore nobody coughed then there would be no transmission. That could still be wrong, that video you posted showing the droplets you spit out just by talking might be just as bad as a cough.
The stuff in Rurik's post is pretty obvious I'm not disagreeing with it. Having the population wear masks will obviously decrease the transmission and save lives. Wearing a mask when you're in close proximity to a carrier will also obviously decrease the risk. If you are in close proximity to another person then that's on your head, if you die you die. I'm talking about wearing a mask when you're out and about doing your shopping, going for a jog, walking to your car, waiting on the rooftop for your boss to walk into your line of sight. In those situations for the reasons/assumptions I've made, you're better off without the mask.
I mean I'm worried about the 1.5% chance. You're worried about the 70% chance. In that situation you're already dead man, it's 70% for fucks sake. The way to reduce that is to not be there in the first place, the mask isn't going to do shit. When you make the smart choice to not be there, you don't want to get fucked by the 1.5% process, which is why you're probably better off without the mask.
Err no. My point was that masks work and that if everyone was wearing them (the debate started with Doc saying some in the medical profession didn't agree with the average person wearing them) then the chance of transmission would be greatly reduced - which the 1.5% quote (if Taiwan is correct) underlines.
I don't think anyone was trying to argue that going somewhere with a mask was safer than not going without the mask.
Those probabilities are for people who are in close proximity, where transmission is either by coughing or just spitting whilst talking. It is a given that you should under no circumstances be standing near to people or talking to them. Unless you're with the NHS or you don't know how to ride a bike or drive a car, there's no reason for it.
The 1.5% if you accept it is true, is a good proxy for you being infected by air containing only a moderate concentration of the virus (the containing effect of the mask would trap a high percentage of the droplets). I don't consider 1.5% safe. It is nowhere near safe for my liking. So the debate we're or rather I'm having is if I should go without the mask, then I think that falls to 0.5%. Froggy, Taiwan, Rurik and the rest of you think it will rise to 5%. That's a huge difference. Of course if everyone goes without a mask, then the 70% will come into play and the conversation is moot. I'm just talking about my own personal risk of death.
The 1.5% if you accept it is true, is a good proxy for you being infected by air containing only a moderate concentration of the virus (the containing effect of the mask would trap a high percentage of the droplets). I don't consider 1.5% safe. It is nowhere near safe for my liking. So the debate we're or rather I'm having is if I should go without the mask, then I think that falls to 0.5%. Froggy, Taiwan, Rurik and the rest of you think it will rise to 5%. That's a huge difference. Of course if everyone goes without a mask, then the 70% will come into play and the conversation is moot. I'm just talking about my own personal risk of death.
I'm down but the bird with the mask on has stolen captain blacks eyebrows and general creepinessI think this graph is from the Taiwanese government (who have reported 0 new cases again today):
And this is where you're mistaken. You need to think society-wide, because your personal risk of death is primarily determined by other people's choices (not an easy concept to accept for a libertarian, I know). The virus would disappear literally in 2 weeks if EVERYBODY stayed home; since this is not possible you want to bring the transmission rate down as much and as quickly as possible; then within a short period of time you actually won't need to worry about not leaving the house anymore and everyone can pretty much live their life as normal. But you need everyone to follow the rules to get to that point and this is where the success of countries like Taiwan comes from – people have high levels of obedience and social trust; their government is generally honest and competent. EVERYONE wears masks in public, so that 70% transmission scenario simply never comes into play – the virus has to feed on scraps, is therefore easily tracked and eliminated. This is why while I'm sitting holed up in my apartment in New York, my wife feels safe going to movies and restaurants in Taipei.
We will all either learn to work better together as a society or perish – if not physically, then economically.
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I'm good with most of my responsible neighbors but there's a lot of loony cunts like you milling around. My neighbor is one of them, if I go out in a mask he starts loudly talking to his son about how the sky is falling. He also probably has a pet name for trump. If only edgy strident opinions fought the corona virus.
I think this graph is from the Taiwanese government (who have reported 0 new cases again today):
I'm sure that - due to the sudden social media explosion of epidemiology and virology expertise - this will be dismissed or ridiculed, like the whole "But but de handwashing fings don't work because of de alcohol levels and i kno this becoz i like alcohol", and yes, the type of masks worn and how they are worn makes a difference, but SURELY it's clear that wearing a mask, even if it's made out of dantes's socks, is going to be of some use in reducing the transfer of particulates?
Anyone else enjoying the fawning adulation of super-smart socialist wimmens in charge, Jacinda Whatever, like she's some kind of Marvel fucking superhero for managing to contain the spread of Corona in fucking New Zealand.
THE MOST ISOLATED LAND MASS IN THE WORLD, with a lower population density than a Wetherspoons quiz night and where people are outnumbered by sheep.
Yeah, well done love.
THE MOST ISOLATED LAND MASS IN THE WORLD, with a lower population density than a Wetherspoons quiz night and where people are outnumbered by sheep.
Yeah, well done love.
I guess such comparisons are my fault for no longer having the will to remind you of how smart I really am.
Imagine being bullied by your own neighbours
Imagine responding to someone saying inaccurate shit purely intended to... oh fuck.
They've still had a very impressive low level of infections and deaths.
It's just occurred to me that the off-limits island in the indian ocean with that cannibal tribe, they will be all that is left of our species when the pandemic ends. I wonder what they will do. I for one would propose that I go there, offer Boris's newborn son as a sacrifice to let me take my place as their deity, and through my teachings they can at least preserve the scientific knowledge of the last thousand years so that it is not wasted.
The Sentinelese!
I love those crazy fuckers, firing arrows at flying metal monsters and eating retarded documentary film-makers
They must already be immune, given that their diet probably makes the Wuhan Clan look like Escoffier
Was that the lad who wanted to go teach them about Jesus or something? What a fucking moron.
They locked down quickly and decisively - the point being, she’s shown leadership - and not for the first time in the recent past - unlike other leaders who have faffed around and regularly soiled themselves on live TV.
She’s done a good job and should rightly be applauded.
In the same way that Scott Morrison after a disastrous handling of the bushfires and a terrible start to CV-19 is doing a much better job
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Dante's wouldn't want to teach them about Jesus. It would be all about Big D, capitalism and losing court cases.
Their diet is likely fish and stuff that grows on the island, which sounds fairly healthy. Not a bat or pangolin in sight.
You refer to the Holy Dantes Trinity.