Betting Bet of the weekend
- Thread starter Aidan O' Neill
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Yup, Juve would be slight favourites to go through now.
Is anyone putting anything on tonight? Bayern at 4/1 looks tasty, but I can see it being a draw myself.
Torino at home to Empoli tonight also. Empoli had a good win against Napoli recently, but they're safe so won't be as up for it as Torino, who are on good form themselves (beat Juve recently) and are in the fight for Europe.
Torino -1 is going for 12/5, although you can probably get better odds elsewhere, I haven't had time to check.
This game starts at 2.00 by the way.
Maybe if we get @Roopy in time, he can give a more experienced opinion on the above game?
Is anyone putting anything on tonight? Bayern at 4/1 looks tasty, but I can see it being a draw myself.
Torino at home to Empoli tonight also. Empoli had a good win against Napoli recently, but they're safe so won't be as up for it as Torino, who are on good form themselves (beat Juve recently) and are in the fight for Europe.
Torino -1 is going for 12/5, although you can probably get better odds elsewhere, I haven't had time to check.
This game starts at 2.00 by the way.
Maybe if we get @Roopy in time, he can give a more experienced opinion on the above game?
I strongly fancy Barca tonight but, as mentioned previously, have backed them to go through over the 2 legs rather than back them just tonight.
I know nothing about Torino or Empoli so have no opinion on it. I'm looking forward to getting my teeth into some play off bets and should have time tomorrow to give my opinions on how each of the 3 divisional play off might pan out.
Hey mate sorry just saw this post.
I would have suggested to put money on a draw ... Empoli winning 1-0 at the moment after 25'
Torino have done well this season, but Empoli are no easy beats either. Unbeaten in 3 and they beat Napoli in their previous match.
Also I have the following bets for the Barca/Munich match:
$10 @ 2.50 on Luis Suarez to be 'Anytime Goalscorer'
$10 @ 13.00 on Barcelona to win 3-1
Haha yea, not looking good! But I only stuck them on a €1 acca, so not too worried.
Good luck on your bets, and you should post more in here! We can never have too much advice!
Pesam's play off guide..........
Play off caveat: picking the winners of play offs is very difficult as; the teams are usually well matched, these are cup games so luck can play a big part and regularly the best team doesn't win.
Championship
Norwich 9/5
Middlesbro 5/2
Brentford 4/1
Ipswich 5/1
I can see why Norwich are favourites and they do have a very strong team BUT less than 2/1 for a team who have a tense local derby to overcome and then the final against another good team does not represent value. They have lots of decent options up front, their midfield is good too but nowhere near as good as Bournemouths and their defence is adequate.
Ipswich should be nowhere near the playoffs, Mick McCarthy has done an amazing job and their main strength is their teamwork. Murphy & Sears are a very useful double act. Skuse, Tabb and Parr in midfield are very ordinary players and the defence is nothing special. I'm looking forward to seeing Mings and Bishop who are their "bright young things" but haven't overly impressed me on the couple of occasions I've seen them.
Middlebro should beat Brentford BUT Brentford have 3 excellent attacking midfielders in Pritchard, Judge and Jota all of whom have been excellent this season. Gray up front shows a lot of promise but I need to see him a few more times before I make up my mind about him.
Diagoraga and Douglas in CM are the work horses, I like both players but they're decent at this level and not capable of stepping up to the EPL.
Defensively Brentford are nothing better than OK and both CB's Tarkowski and Dean are whole-hearted players but capable of moments of madness.
If Middlesbro play an expansive game they should beat Brentford over the 2 legs but they need to pick their strongest 11 which frustratingly they rarely do. Ayala and Gibson at CB are both very reliable and Clayton & leadbitter in CM are significantly better than Brentford's 2 of Douglas & Diagoraga.
If all 4 teams were priced at 3/1 I'd plump for Norwich.
I can't see any value in these prices and as a result won't be betting on the overall winner. If I had to have a bet I'd lay Norwich just because they have to overcome a dogged local rival, then another decent team and they're not good enough to be such strong favourites.
First division to follow...........................
Play off caveat: picking the winners of play offs is very difficult as; the teams are usually well matched, these are cup games so luck can play a big part and regularly the best team doesn't win.
Championship
Norwich 9/5
Middlesbro 5/2
Brentford 4/1
Ipswich 5/1
I can see why Norwich are favourites and they do have a very strong team BUT less than 2/1 for a team who have a tense local derby to overcome and then the final against another good team does not represent value. They have lots of decent options up front, their midfield is good too but nowhere near as good as Bournemouths and their defence is adequate.
Ipswich should be nowhere near the playoffs, Mick McCarthy has done an amazing job and their main strength is their teamwork. Murphy & Sears are a very useful double act. Skuse, Tabb and Parr in midfield are very ordinary players and the defence is nothing special. I'm looking forward to seeing Mings and Bishop who are their "bright young things" but haven't overly impressed me on the couple of occasions I've seen them.
Middlebro should beat Brentford BUT Brentford have 3 excellent attacking midfielders in Pritchard, Judge and Jota all of whom have been excellent this season. Gray up front shows a lot of promise but I need to see him a few more times before I make up my mind about him.
Diagoraga and Douglas in CM are the work horses, I like both players but they're decent at this level and not capable of stepping up to the EPL.
Defensively Brentford are nothing better than OK and both CB's Tarkowski and Dean are whole-hearted players but capable of moments of madness.
If Middlesbro play an expansive game they should beat Brentford over the 2 legs but they need to pick their strongest 11 which frustratingly they rarely do. Ayala and Gibson at CB are both very reliable and Clayton & leadbitter in CM are significantly better than Brentford's 2 of Douglas & Diagoraga.
If all 4 teams were priced at 3/1 I'd plump for Norwich.
I can't see any value in these prices and as a result won't be betting on the overall winner. If I had to have a bet I'd lay Norwich just because they have to overcome a dogged local rival, then another decent team and they're not good enough to be such strong favourites.
First division to follow...........................
Shite.................I had nearly finished my 1st division post and my computer crashed and I lost everything I'd typed :-(
I can't be arsed typing it again so here's a synopsis.
Preston 2/1
Sheffield United 11/4
Swindon 3/1
Chesterfield 11/2
Chesterfield have a good midfield but that's it and even if they manage to shock Preston I can't see them then also shocking either of the other 2 in the final. Gary Roberts of Chesterfield is a lower league legend and always worth a watch, Morsy likes a tackle (too much sometimes), Ryan is decent and Clucas is a useful goalscoring midfielder.
Preston to win over 2 legs but make hard work of it.
Ignore the fact that Preston finished 10 points ahead of Swindon who finished 8 points ahead of Sheff Utd....all 3 teams are very evenly matched. Preston are rightly favourites due to the fact that they play Chesterfield whereas Sheff Utd and Swindon have to play each other.
Swindon have 3 excellent midfielders in Kasim, Luongo and Gladwin but nothing special up front or defensively.
I would love to say Sheff Utd are the best value as they have some excellent players including Coutts, Done, Davies, Flynn, Baxter etc but as their results show the can (and have) beat Bristol City, MK Dons and Swindon but then lose to Crewe, Yeovil and Port Vale.
My gut feeling is that whoever wins the Sheff Utd v Swindon tie will beat Preston in the final.
Chesterfield 1-0 Preston
Preston 3-1 Chesterfield
Sheffield United 2-1 Swindon
Swindon 1-2 Sheff Utd
Preston 1-2 Sheff Utd
I'm not going to bet on the overall winner on this but might bet on Chesterfield to cause an upset in the first leg v Preston
I'll do 2nd division tomorrow..............
I can't be arsed typing it again so here's a synopsis.
Preston 2/1
Sheffield United 11/4
Swindon 3/1
Chesterfield 11/2
Chesterfield have a good midfield but that's it and even if they manage to shock Preston I can't see them then also shocking either of the other 2 in the final. Gary Roberts of Chesterfield is a lower league legend and always worth a watch, Morsy likes a tackle (too much sometimes), Ryan is decent and Clucas is a useful goalscoring midfielder.
Preston to win over 2 legs but make hard work of it.
Ignore the fact that Preston finished 10 points ahead of Swindon who finished 8 points ahead of Sheff Utd....all 3 teams are very evenly matched. Preston are rightly favourites due to the fact that they play Chesterfield whereas Sheff Utd and Swindon have to play each other.
Swindon have 3 excellent midfielders in Kasim, Luongo and Gladwin but nothing special up front or defensively.
I would love to say Sheff Utd are the best value as they have some excellent players including Coutts, Done, Davies, Flynn, Baxter etc but as their results show the can (and have) beat Bristol City, MK Dons and Swindon but then lose to Crewe, Yeovil and Port Vale.
My gut feeling is that whoever wins the Sheff Utd v Swindon tie will beat Preston in the final.
Chesterfield 1-0 Preston
Preston 3-1 Chesterfield
Sheffield United 2-1 Swindon
Swindon 1-2 Sheff Utd
Preston 1-2 Sheff Utd
I'm not going to bet on the overall winner on this but might bet on Chesterfield to cause an upset in the first leg v Preston
I'll do 2nd division tomorrow..............
2nd Division
Southend 2/1
Plymouth 3/1
Wycombe 3/1
Stevenage 9/2
This is the most open of all 3 play off as IMO all 4 teams are equally capable of winning it. This makes a bet on Stevenage a no-brainer for me because the 9/2 on them is much better value than the 2/1 on Southend.
None of these teams are particularly good by division 2 standards but all capable of stringing a few results together (Southend won 7 in a row recently).
Southend have a very good target man in Barry Corr a decent midfield and solid defence. Stevenage are a very enthusiastic bunch and always give 100%. Their most creative players are Lee, Whelpdale and Andrade but I've noticed Whelpdale wasn't in their last squad so might be injured.
Plymouth's form is ridiculously erratic, great one week awful the next........their main strength is their defence as evidence by the fact they've conceded less than anyone bar Shrewsbury and their goalie McCormick is probaby the best in the division. I'm not overly knowledgeable about their midfield or front but Reuben Reid is a very reliable goalscorer who has been around for years Lewis Alessandra will create lots of chances and Blizzard in CM does the donkey work.
Wycombe have 2 excellent young CB's in Mawson and Pierre and, if everyone is fit, are definitely in with a shout. Sam Saunders is a lovely player to watch and Paul Hayes is a lower-league Teddy Sheringham (creates as well as scores). Over the last 6 or 7 weeks their form has tailed off badly but they've had injuries and I'm led to believe most will be fit for the playoffs.
Stevenage 2-1 Southend
Southend 2-1 Stevenage
Stevenage to squeak thru on penalties
Plymouth 2-1 Wycombe
Wycombe 2-0 Plymouth
Wycombe 2-2 Stevenage
Maybe Stevenage winning on penalties.
My main bet is a lay of Southend winning overall @ 1/2 (1.5 on Betfair)
Southend 2/1
Plymouth 3/1
Wycombe 3/1
Stevenage 9/2
This is the most open of all 3 play off as IMO all 4 teams are equally capable of winning it. This makes a bet on Stevenage a no-brainer for me because the 9/2 on them is much better value than the 2/1 on Southend.
None of these teams are particularly good by division 2 standards but all capable of stringing a few results together (Southend won 7 in a row recently).
Southend have a very good target man in Barry Corr a decent midfield and solid defence. Stevenage are a very enthusiastic bunch and always give 100%. Their most creative players are Lee, Whelpdale and Andrade but I've noticed Whelpdale wasn't in their last squad so might be injured.
Plymouth's form is ridiculously erratic, great one week awful the next........their main strength is their defence as evidence by the fact they've conceded less than anyone bar Shrewsbury and their goalie McCormick is probaby the best in the division. I'm not overly knowledgeable about their midfield or front but Reuben Reid is a very reliable goalscorer who has been around for years Lewis Alessandra will create lots of chances and Blizzard in CM does the donkey work.
Wycombe have 2 excellent young CB's in Mawson and Pierre and, if everyone is fit, are definitely in with a shout. Sam Saunders is a lovely player to watch and Paul Hayes is a lower-league Teddy Sheringham (creates as well as scores). Over the last 6 or 7 weeks their form has tailed off badly but they've had injuries and I'm led to believe most will be fit for the playoffs.
Stevenage 2-1 Southend
Southend 2-1 Stevenage
Stevenage to squeak thru on penalties
Plymouth 2-1 Wycombe
Wycombe 2-0 Plymouth
Wycombe 2-2 Stevenage
Maybe Stevenage winning on penalties.
My main bet is a lay of Southend winning overall @ 1/2 (1.5 on Betfair)
It'll be tough now that Sheff Utd lost the home leg but play off history is littered with stories of teams losing the home leg but still going thru. I even remember one year Yeovil lost 0-2 at home to Leeds and went and won 0-3 away and went on to win at Wembley.
Good luck C/O, it's tricky making money on the play offs but I'm reasonably confident about my lay of Southend on the overall market.
There was no liquidity on the 1st goalscorer markets for last night's games but there should be for tonights. If Stuart Dallas is anything near 20/1 I'll have a dabble or Jota if he's about 12/1 - 14/1.
Yeah, I think it's gone now. Sheff Utd's recent form hasn't been great either so it was a bit of a punt anyway.
Really looking forward to Brentford v Middlesbro....both teams have picked the starting 11 I would have hoped for and both are playing 4-2-3-1.....The six attacking midfielders on show are all excellent......Pritchard, Jota, Judge, Adomah, Tomlin and Forshaw.
I've no idea who will win but have backed Jota 1st goal @ 12/1 and George Friend 1st goal @ 80/1.
Edit: just realised that Boro have picked Vossen instead of Forshaw and are going 4-4-2.....I'd have picked Dallas or Forshaw and played Bamford up front on his own but Vossen is decent enough.
I've no idea who will win but have backed Jota 1st goal @ 12/1 and George Friend 1st goal @ 80/1.
Edit: just realised that Boro have picked Vossen instead of Forshaw and are going 4-4-2.....I'd have picked Dallas or Forshaw and played Bamford up front on his own but Vossen is decent enough.
I doubt I'll be risking too much tomorrow but..............
Burnley won't lie down yet and will still think they can stay up.....if they beat Hull tomorrow they'll be 5 points behind them and they'll know that Hull's last 2 games are very difficult whereas theirs are winnable. Obviously I reckon Burnley will eventually go down but I think they could surprise Hull tomorrow. It's a game between 2 poor teams under pressure and I'd rather my money was on the 7/2 shot than the Evens for Hull.
United were shite for the first 6 months of the season but they went on a winning run pretty much as soon as Carrick was fit. Carrick has missed their last 3 games and guess what....United have lost all 3.
Rumour has it Carrick could be out for their last 3 games. If he doesn't play tomorrow I'll lay the crap out of the United win.
Ipswich v Norwich I'll probably stick to a first goalscorer bet on someone like Sears.
You spotted anything worthwhile yet?
Burnley won't lie down yet and will still think they can stay up.....if they beat Hull tomorrow they'll be 5 points behind them and they'll know that Hull's last 2 games are very difficult whereas theirs are winnable. Obviously I reckon Burnley will eventually go down but I think they could surprise Hull tomorrow. It's a game between 2 poor teams under pressure and I'd rather my money was on the 7/2 shot than the Evens for Hull.
United were shite for the first 6 months of the season but they went on a winning run pretty much as soon as Carrick was fit. Carrick has missed their last 3 games and guess what....United have lost all 3.
Rumour has it Carrick could be out for their last 3 games. If he doesn't play tomorrow I'll lay the crap out of the United win.
Ipswich v Norwich I'll probably stick to a first goalscorer bet on someone like Sears.
You spotted anything worthwhile yet?
Not really, brother.
But you make a good point re Utd. Carrick really does make them tick. Might stick Palace/Draw on an acca.
Like yourself, I'll probably just do first/anytime scorers, and I might bet semi big on someone like Everton (spits) if it's still level and half time and the odds look good.
Well I just checked Red Cafe and it looks as if Carrick is definitely out and they're all very worried about the impact his loss will have. I've layed them to win already in case the price changes overnight when Carrick's absence is more widely publicised. It shows how far United have fallen when they become so reliant on a 33 year old who was never world class even when he was at his peak!
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