Betting Bet of the weekend
- Thread starter Aidan O' Neill
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Obviously they're not a great team Neal as they're down near the bottom but they brought in a few new players around Xmas and have improved. I've probably lost as many bets on them since Xmas as I've won but the prices I've won on have included a 16/1 (away at Swindon) a couple of 4/1's, a 5/1 and one or two others.
They are 2/1 at home to Notts Co this weekend which is a huge game as they are both in serious trouble and both on 47 points. My initial thought is that it's a very good price for Crawley as they have home advantage and Notts County @ 6/4 looks wrong to me. I'll check the injury/suspension news (this afternoon) and see if the 2/1 Crawley still appeals.
It was a 7 fold and I had Boca Juniors and Corinthians left on it. Boca won just before I went to bed, Corinthians were on at 2, checked it this morning and they drew 0-0. Bastards.
I never put much on, and mainly do it for the entertainment, but shit like that is still annoying.
There's a few games on tonight. Don't think I'll bother, but there's good odds on Dundalk, Standard Liege and Middlesbrough. Port Vale don't look bad either, but the last two are more your area of expertise!
I might risk a small bet on Port Vale to beat Preston @ 9/2. They're (Port Vale) not a terrible team but struggle to score goals. I am usually ultra-cautious at the stage of the season because IMO betting becomes even more like a lottery than ever.
In an average betting week the main criteria in figuring out how yer going to win money is to work out who has the best players, manager, tactics etc and factoring in such things as injuries and suspensions. At this stage of the season you have to add in which teams have something to play for and which don't AND which players in each team react well to this pressure and which won't! It's almost impossible to be certain about anything once you get past Easter.
I won't be betting big tomorrow at all.
The 2 that I will probably have some involvement in are Crawley (who IMO should be 6/4 and not 2/1) and Exeter at the same price at home to Southend.
The biggest problem with Crawley (as with about half the teams in the top 4 divisions) is their manager Dean Saunders. He makes odd team selections, strange substitutions and his after-match comments make you wonder if he's deluded or blagging-it.
If fit Crawley need to have Marv Elliott and Anthony Wordsworth in CM and Bradley & Wood at CB; if I see those 4 names in the starting 11 I'll have a dabble.
How much emphasis would you put on being the home team?
Obviously it's an advantage, and I hate betting on an away team, but the odds can be too much to pass up sometimes. Middlesbrough at 3/1 away to Norwich tonight for example.
Sorry C/O the wife is out tonight and I had a crying baby to sort out before I settled down to the football. I couldn't agree more about the Boro price, I was surprised when I logged in a couple of minutes before kick off to see Boro @ 7/2 and Norwich (marginally) odds-on. I did a small lay of Norwich which is looking good and got £5 on George Friend 1st goal @ 110/1. Own goals don't count so the 1st goalscorer bet is still "live".
Good shout. Might put a bit on a score draw.
A couple of major brain farts won me a very nice bet last night.
I was walking to the park with my dog at about 7:30 and was going to follow the game on twitter. I checked the team news and saw "Dawson" in the Hull team, my ancient brain cells informed me that this must be Andy Dawson (a player who played in the lower leagues with Hull for many years but left them 2 years ago!). My brain also incorrectly informed me that he scored against us last season!
As I figured we would be vulnerable at set pieces as usual i logged into my betting account to bet on him for the first goal. When I got onto betfair I saw MICHAEL Dawson and realised my mistake. I was just about to log out but then thought....."Sod's law, I won't put a bet on and the other Dawson will score" so I stuck £5 on at 100/1 🙂
And this morning I've just realised that the player I was thinking of all along (who scored against us last season FOR Crystal Palace) was Damien Delaney who used to play for Hull many years ago beside Andy Dawson.
For once my senility has proved most beneficial.
I was walking to the park with my dog at about 7:30 and was going to follow the game on twitter. I checked the team news and saw "Dawson" in the Hull team, my ancient brain cells informed me that this must be Andy Dawson (a player who played in the lower leagues with Hull for many years but left them 2 years ago!). My brain also incorrectly informed me that he scored against us last season!
As I figured we would be vulnerable at set pieces as usual i logged into my betting account to bet on him for the first goal. When I got onto betfair I saw MICHAEL Dawson and realised my mistake. I was just about to log out but then thought....."Sod's law, I won't put a bet on and the other Dawson will score" so I stuck £5 on at 100/1 🙂
And this morning I've just realised that the player I was thinking of all along (who scored against us last season FOR Crystal Palace) was Damien Delaney who used to play for Hull many years ago beside Andy Dawson.
For once my senility has proved most beneficial.
Jaysus that must hurt like a kick in the nuts :-(
A few kicks actually. Especially after getting the draw correct, as I rarely go for a draw. I just had a feeling about it.
Where is that price available?
I backed him at 5s!
Betfair. I would have thought 5/1 would be the maximum price for a lone striker playing for the strong favourites.
I not risking much these days on match betting because picking winners this late in the season is very difficult. By the time you factor in which teams have something to play for, which players can/can't handle the pressure, which players are "already on the beach" etc picking the winner become even more of a lottery than ever.
This weekend I will be focussing entirely on 1st goalscorer bets in the EPL.
Yeah it's well tough this time of year to predict results.
We may sort out a first goalscorer for next season for a forum syndicate.
Preferably a defender again.
Caulker was profitable for a while but playing with those useless shits didn't help.
Yeah but we need to spot the value. Seeing Terry and Ivanovic at 24/1-26/1 doesn't tempt me at all but a few years ago you could regularly get Ivanovic at 33/1-36/1 prices. Similarly with Caulker, he was widely available at 40/1 in the early days and now he's usually under 30/1 despite the fact he hasn't scored in ages.
I had numerous successes on McAuley at prices like 90/1, 50/1 and 40/1 but then everyone cottoned on to him and he was 30/1-ish. He's had a bit of a goal drought now so he's back over 40/1 regularly so I've started backing him again.
Mike Williamson of Newcastle is always worth a couple of quid as he's regularly over 100/1 due to the fact he's scored 1 goal for the Toon in 150 games. If you overlook the fact that he is a very poor defender and look at his goalscoring record before he joined Newcastle, he scored something like 15 goals in 150 games (pretty much all from set-pieces). I do think he's long overdue a goal and with a bit of luck it'll be a first goal.
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