Simon Mignolet - signing confirmed
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After 8 years service at the club, it appears that Pepe Reina will leave and return to Spain. Despite being one of the senior members of the squad, in the prime of his career and generally regarded as a top class keeper, Liverpool do not appear overly discontented to see him leave. In fact, given that Valdes looks likely to stay at Barcelona for one more season (widely regarded as Reina's destination), it is reasonable to assume that Reina would have been happy to stay one more year until the goalkeeping position opened up at the Nou Camp.
However, if media speculation is to be believed that Reina's move to Barcelona is only a matter of time then Liverpool must act immediately. Reina served Liverpool for 8 years, largely with distinction. Before that, Dudek was the No.1 for 4 seasons. Finding the right man is imperative as a good goalkeeper could be the foundation of a defence for 5-10yrs. For that reason, with Simon Mignolet's reputation rising and with only 2 years left on his contract at Sunderland, Liverpool are acting now to secure his services rather than waiting another year and taking a chance with the market in the Summer of 2014 - a summer when prices can easily inflate by 50-100% should a player impress at the World Cup.
Goals Conceded
In terms of the basics - goals conceded - the 2 players stack up as follow;
Reina conceded 34 goals in 31 games and kept 14 clean sheets. On average, he conceded 1.1 goals per game.
Mignolet conceded 54 goals in 38 games and kept 11 clean sheets. On average, he conceded 1.42 goals per game.
Activity Levels
On the face of it, Reina's stats above are the more impressive. However, it is worth noting that being the last line of defence for Liverpool & Sunderland during the course of last season were very different experiences. Sunderland conceded the 2nd most shots in league last season at 16.8 shots per game (though a long way behind Reading in 1st place at 18.6 per game). Liverpool were 4th best in this stat conceding 11.4 per game*. Note that these shots include those that were off-target and were blocked by defenders so they did not necessarily require saving. However, the diversity in activity levels are there to see.
Reina averaged 1.35 saves per game
Mignolet averaged 3.26 saves per game
*From stats available, Liverpool block 3 shots per game, conceded 1.1 goal per game with Reina saving 1.35 per game. By deduction 5.5 shots were off-target which seems reasonable.Part of the reason that Sunderland were subject to such a high number of shots on goal was that Sunderland averaged the 2nd lowest amount of possession at just 43.1% whilst Liverpool were 3rd best at 57.2%. Combined with this, the league table said that Liverpool's players were better than Sunderland's by 10 places - 7th vs 17th. On the face of it, between the 2 teams, Sunderland's players were not as good and also allowed the opposition plenty of the ball. As such, it is not surprising that Mignolet was the busier last season.
Trying to bring some more perspective to the stats - where did these shots originate from;
Liverpool 5% in 6yard box, 42% in the rest of the penalty area, 53% outside the area
Sunderland 7% in 6yard box, 45% in the rest of the penalty area, 48% outside the area
With the above in mind (higher number of shots faced by Mignolet and higher proportion of shots were closer to goal), the following stat is worthy of consideration. How many saves did each keeper pull off on average before they eventually conceded. The stats say that it took nearly twice as much to beat Mignolet as it did Reina.
Reina averaged 1.27 saves per goal conceded
Mignolet averaged 2.48 saves per goal conceded
A popular argument against such stats - and its a valid one - is that keepers at top clubs are required to have impeccable concentration. They may not be called on alot to make many saves, but when they are called upon and they show up, they win their team points. As such, I thought it worthwhile to see how Reina's stats in terms of saves-per-goal were commensurate with a keeper at a Top 4 club. As seen below, his stats (1.27) still rate as low.
De Gea 3.09 saves per goal
Cech 1.85 saves per goal
Szcesny 1.75 saves per goal
Hart, whom it is widely believe had a poor season, averaged 1.41 saves per goal.
Distribution / Passing
This aspect of Reina's game is considered one of his strongest. In fact, Reina was superior to all other keepers in the league. In terms of distribution (goal kicks, kicks from hand, throw outs and general passes);
Reina's success completion rate was 75%
Mignolet's success completion rate was 46%
The difference in the stats can largely be explained from the approach of the 2 teams. Sunderland ranked 17th in terms of the number of short passes they play per game at just 295. In comparison, Liverpool rank 4th in this stat and average 475 short passes per game. Consequently, if a team is not set up to play a passing game, the keeper is more likely to seek a 'percentage pass' - the longer ball to the oppositions final third to allow the team compete for the ball closer to the oppositions goal. The average distance of each player's 'distribution' is as follows;
Reina 36 meters
Mignolet 51 meters
The following graphic shows the distribution of both keepers when Liverpool and Sunderland played each. The difference in approach is quite clear between the players, but that, I would argue, is more down to the manager's instruction than the player's own tendancy. This aspect of Mignolet's game is one that would require work on the training ground i.e. being available as an outlet and confident enough to attempt 30 yard passes from his box out to the full backs.
![URL]](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2F%5BURL%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Ffiles.roryfitz9.webnode.com%2F200000121-85447860a9%2FDISTRIBUTION%2520COMPLETE.PNG%5B%2FURL%5D&hash=88296e1b91179b7bcee68f58e616701e)
The longer the 'pass', the higher the risk, the less chance of success. For comparison, keepers that were 2nd and 3rd in these stats were at teams that promote a possession-based game;
Szezcsny 69% completion rate with average distance of 40 meters
Vorm 66% completion rate with average distance of 38 meters
Crosses
One of the main issues Liverpool fans had with the defence this season was the ability to deal with balls being crossed into the box and more pointedly, the lack of effort in trying to stop crosses. In terms of the latter, this issue was looked at here: http://www.roryfitz9.com/news/villa-expose-liverpools-weaknesses/
In terms of the former, Liverpool have been caused problems by teams that look to play an aerial game. Neither Skrtel nor Agger were dominant aerially last season and Reina rarely came out past his 6 yard box to claim crosses. The graphic below is a comparison of Reina & Mignolet but also shows the keepers at the teams that finished top 3. Reina does not compare well with the other keepers in this list. However, rather than focus on Reina, Mignolet came for 170 crosses over the season, catching 128, punching 39 and failing to deal with just 3. Thats an average of 4.5 crosses per game he competed for and generally won. If Rodgers is indeed restructuring the defence with a view to getting an aerially dominant defender - complementing such defender(s) with a keeper willing to come from his line could alleviate some of the stress the defence suffered last season.
![URL]](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2F%5BURL%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Ffiles.roryfitz9.webnode.com%2F200000120-3268b33621%2FMignolet%2520comparison.PNG%5B%2FURL%5D&hash=33a2714ffb70e4152eb5b36893f104e9)
Shot Zones
![URL]](/proxy.php?image=http%3A%2F%2F%5BURL%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Ffiles.roryfitz9.webnode.com%2F200000119-90efb91e9d%2FGOAL%2520AREA%2520-%2520COMPLETED.png%5B%2FURL%5D&hash=b95f143bb24942c6699380d07e226b97)
Very little can be taken from such graphic. The distribution of goals against Mignolet is 37% left, 26% central and 37% left. As for Pepe, its 53% right, 21% central and 25% left. One particular quadrant stands out, almost 50% of goals have been to Reina's bottom right. Is there a possible weakness here ? I have seen Pepe Reina make many fine saves in every area of the goal. Unfortunately for goalkeepers, the mistakes are memorable. Some of Pepe's worst mistakes have been close to his body as he moved to his right. I include this information as a by-the-by rather than pointing to a deeper underlying issue - it was just something that came to mind when I saw such a high proportion of goals in 1 area.
- Defeat at Fulham 1-0 in December 2011 when Dempsey converted an average shot from Murphy that Reina spilled,
- Home draw vs Arsenal in August 2010 when he spilled the ball into the net in injury time
- Away defeat at City in January 2012 when Aguero's shot from outside the box dipped under his body as he went down to his right
- Home draw vs Hearts in August 2012 when he spilled a shot that was right of center.
- Error at Steau Bucharest in December 2010 was neither right-nor-left, just an under-the-leg blunder.
Other
Above, I mentioned one of the main issues with the defence was our susceptibility from crosses. One of the other issues with our defending is our aggressive positioning when in possession. When our play breaks down, we leave gaps. In this instance, Reading moved the ball quickly and took Lucas & Gerrard out of the game (both of which are aggressively positioned). As defenders can't realistically come past the halfway line (as the striker would get a head start from an onside position), we pressed in an area of the pitch that didn't allow the defence to squeeze up. In the end, Reina saved point-blank from Noel Hunt. Whilst this is a different discussion, its an example of how our play requires a good shot stopper as we leave gaps by generally trying to win back possession.
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Conclusion
When Pepe Reina came to Liverpool in the Summer of 2005, the club was on the rise and Reina was a key cornerstone winning the Golden Glove in his first 3 seasons (05/06, 06/07 and 07/08). He played in an FA Cup Final in 2006, then the Champions League Final in 2007, a Champions League semi-final in 2008 and a quarter final in 2009 whilst helping the team run United close in the title challenge that same season. In Rafa Benitez's last season, Reina was voted Liverpool's Player of the Season 2009/10. It is largely at this juncture that Liverpool fans point to a change in form.
In January 2013, Pako Ayestaran was on SkySports La Liga programme discussing Casillas being dropped at Real Madrid. It was put to him that the Spanish captain was dropped because he got too comforable. Pako was of the opinion that such an occurance was not all that unusual and specifically cited Pepe Reina at Liverpool saying that he felt '....Reina dropped a level at Liverpool in the past 2 years'.
There is no doubting Reina's pedigree, but as Liverpool's fortunes have declined, so too have the performances of Reina (and yes, I agree that they are not mutually exclusive). At Liverpool, Reina has proved himself beyond doubt and is a senior member of the squad that is guaranteed his starting place each week. It may be felt in some quarters that Reina needs a different challenge to give him a jolt to help him regain the form that made him such a success at Liverpool in his first 5 years.
As for Mignolet, he would be joining Liverpool at a relatively young age for a goalkeeper (25). Positively, he is experienced in the Premier League so the degree of aerial play should not phase him. On the contrary, he appears to deal quite well with a high ball. When Reina first joined Liverpool, Benitez ordered him to punch, rather than catch, the high balls. David De Gea is also an example of someone that came from Spain and initally suffered. For this reason alone, shopping in the Premier League can bring this advantage and Mignolet seems comfortable in this department and could help improve our defensive capabilities in this area.
His ability as a shot stopper has seen his profile rise in the Premier League over the last season. This aspect of his game should not be an issue. As Liverpool were relatively open last season (which is unlikely to be fully tightened this coming season), Mignolet is likely to be active in open play. Having a keeper that is quick to come off his line to close the angles and make saves is another area that could be improved upon from last season - something we had from the pre-2010 Reina.
One of the biggest aspects of his game that would require work is how he would operate as a member of the team when we are in possession ? The modus operandi is simple and easy to understand - retain possession - but the work would come with understanding the ability of the new keeper to control the ball, take touches and then his passing accuracy along the ground and also, over the heads of opposition to find Enrique and Johnson on the touchline. As a player that has played at all under-age levels for Belgium and is an international goalkeeper, I would expect him to be comfortable but perhaps won't have the variety of successful distribution with ball at feet as Reina.
If we are going to lose Reina, I would have no issues with replacing him with a young goalkeeper with Premiership experience (3yrs) and a growing reputation. Mignolet could be a better shot stopper based on recent evidence, he is most likely not as good when in possession but he is strong in coming out to help his defenders under a high ball and at almost 2 inches taller than Reina, he may not have the leadership qualities of a seasoned pro but he can lead by example in the box, perhaps behind a radically different defence of like mind when it comes to competing in the air.
http://www.roryfitz9.com/news/simon-mignolet-vs-pepe-reina/
I can only see 1 picture, can you ? Have the settings on the board changed ?
I would stick with pepe even though he is on big wages. Iike Pepe, he is a good player.
Reina is on the decline and isn't gonna get any better. Better to sell him.
I wasn't too impressed with this transfer, but then I heard this:
View: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qt9yAjXmXso
View: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qt9yAjXmXso
Yeah okay okay you beat me to it. No one likes a show off.😀
I'd have preferred Begovic.
Nah. Overrated.
I feel like we would have to give him intense therapy to un-Stoke him and improve his distribution.
If they knew that all they had to do was take a shot at him from almost anywhere, it coukd have been at the least 10-6
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