Shot on Target = Goal?

[Halmeister]

Watford (A) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 3

Hoffenheim (A) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 1

Crystal Palace (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 0

Hoffenheim (H) Shots on target - 3
Goals - 2

Arsenal (H) Shots on target - 0
Goals - 0

Man City (A) Shots on target - 10
Goals - 5

Sevilla (H) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 2

Burnley (H) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 1

Leicester (A) Shots on target - 5
Goals - 2

Leicester (A) Shots on target - 7
Goals - 2

Spartak (A) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 1

Newcastle (A) Shots on target - 5
Goals - 1

Man Utd (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 0

Maribor (A) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 0

Spurs (A) Shots on target - 6
Goals - 4

Huddersfield (H) Shots on target - 0
Goals - 0

Maribor (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 0

West Ham (A) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 1

Sevilla (A) Shots on target - 6
Goals - 3

Chelsea (H) Shots on target - 3
Goals - 1

Stoke (A) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 0

Brighton (A) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 1

Spartak (H) Shots on target - 5
Goals - 0

Everton (H) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 1

West Brom (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 0

Bournemouth (A) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 0

Arsenal (A) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 3

Leicester (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 1

Burnley (A) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 1

Everton (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 1

Man City (H) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 3

Swansea (A) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 1

West Brom (H) Shots on target - 3
Goals - 3



Total Shots on Target - 99
Total Goals Conceded - 53

Percentage of shots on target = goals - 53.5%

Compare those figures with that of Manchester United:

Total Shots on Target - 147
Total Goals Conceded - 24

Percentage of shots on target = goals - 16.3%



If you managed to get this far, congratulations. Now, obviously we all have eyes and we can all see that our defence is shite, but the stats would suggest that our defence does a decent job of restricting shots against our goal. They certainly stop more than Man Utd's defence do. However, of course, such is the problem with such stats, that this particular metric doesn't indicate the type of shots either team faces on goal. Still, it's interesting. Just look at the difference in those figures.

Is it as simple as saying "our defence is shite and the way we play leaves us vulnerable at the back"? There's certainly an element of truth in that, but we concede less shots on target than the much-lauded Utd defence. Of course, they have the wonderful De Gea in goal.

Is it as simple as saying "both of our keepers are shite, and if we had De Gea we'd be amazing"? Well, obviously the first part of that statement is correct, but as suggested before, is it our system of playing that gives opposition strikers clear opportunities, or is it solely down to a poor defence? There's most likely both at play here, but what is for certain is the fact that if the opposition manages an effort on target, they have a better than 50% chance of scoring a goal. That's outrageous.

None of this is particularly new or surprising information, but seeing the figures laid out up there is quite striking, no pun intended. I honestly don't know how best we solve this situation.

 

[moron]

Watford (A) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 3

Hoffenheim (A) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 1

Crystal Palace (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 0

Hoffenheim (H) Shots on target - 3
Goals - 2

Arsenal (H) Shots on target - 0
Goals - 0

Man City (A) Shots on target - 10
Goals - 5

Sevilla (H) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 2

Burnley (H) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 1

Leicester (A) Shots on target - 5
Goals - 2

Leicester (A) Shots on target - 7
Goals - 2

Spartak (A) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 1

Newcastle (A) Shots on target - 5
Goals - 1

Man Utd (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 0

Maribor (A) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 0

Spurs (A) Shots on target - 6
Goals - 4

Huddersfield (H) Shots on target - 0
Goals - 0

Maribor (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 0

West Ham (A) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 1

Sevilla (A) Shots on target - 6
Goals - 3

Chelsea (H) Shots on target - 3
Goals - 1

Stoke (A) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 0

Brighton (A) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 1

Spartak (H) Shots on target - 5
Goals - 0

Everton (H) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 1

West Brom (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 0

Bournemouth (A) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 0

Arsenal (A) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 3

Leicester (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 1

Burnley (A) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 1

Everton (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 1

Man City (H) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 3

Swansea (A) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 1

West Brom (H) Shots on target - 3
Goals - 3



Total Shots on Target - 99
Total Goals Conceded - 53

Percentage of shots on target = goals - 53.5%

Compare those figures with that of Manchester United:

Total Shots on Target - 147
Total Goals Conceded - 24

Percentage of shots on target = goals - 16.3%



If you managed to get this far, congratulations. Now, obviously we all have eyes and we can all see that our defence is shite, but the stats would suggest that our defence does a decent job of restricting shots against our goal. They certainly stop more than Man Utd's defence do. However, of course, such is the problem with such stats, that this particular metric doesn't indicate the type of shots either team faces on goal. Still, it's interesting. Just look at the difference in those figures.

Is it as simple as saying "our defence is shite and the way we play leaves us vulnerable at the back"? There's certainly an element of truth in that, but we concede less shots on target than the much-lauded Utd defence. Of course, they have the wonderful De Gea in goal.

Is it as simple as saying "both of our keepers are shite, and if we had De Gea we'd be amazing"? Well, obviously the first part of that statement is correct, but as suggested before, is it our system of playing that gives opposition strikers clear opportunities, or is it solely down to a poor defence? There's most likely both at play here, but what is for certain is the fact that if the opposition manages an effort on target, they have a better than 50% chance of scoring a goal. That's outrageous.

None of this is particularly new or surprising information, but seeing the figures laid out up there is quite striking, no pun intended. I honestly don't know how best we solve this situation.

This is brilliant piece of analysis - I think it's down to the quality of chances that fall to the opposition, they are much easier to score from than most. But I think one thing we could try to avoid this type of thing happening is not try and pass ourselves out of the situation - just kick the ball out of the danger area. Also much of these situations arise due to a lack of concentration at key moments, finally the exhaustion factor after a press kicks in when they have to run back and defend - the mind and the legs may just not be at 100% when the mindset turns from attack to defense.

 

[Fabio]

Excellent post hal

Excuse me though, I'm going to slit my wrists

 

[keniget]

That’s horrific.

It is a combination of the keeper and the defence. We seem to give up high quality chances.

 

[Ijg]

The BBC have a certain statistic but I can’t remember what it’s called but it takes in to account the % chance of actually scoring from the shot on target.

It’d be interesting to see how many of those we concede.

 

[manwithnoname]

Watford (A) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 3

Hoffenheim (A) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 1

Crystal Palace (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 0

Hoffenheim (H) Shots on target - 3
Goals - 2

Arsenal (H) Shots on target - 0
Goals - 0

Man City (A) Shots on target - 10
Goals - 5

Sevilla (H) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 2

Burnley (H) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 1

Leicester (A) Shots on target - 5
Goals - 2

Leicester (A) Shots on target - 7
Goals - 2

Spartak (A) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 1

Newcastle (A) Shots on target - 5
Goals - 1

Man Utd (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 0

Maribor (A) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 0

Spurs (A) Shots on target - 6
Goals - 4

Huddersfield (H) Shots on target - 0
Goals - 0

Maribor (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 0

West Ham (A) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 1

Sevilla (A) Shots on target - 6
Goals - 3

Chelsea (H) Shots on target - 3
Goals - 1

Stoke (A) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 0

Brighton (A) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 1

Spartak (H) Shots on target - 5
Goals - 0

Everton (H) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 1

West Brom (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 0

Bournemouth (A) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 0

Arsenal (A) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 3

Leicester (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 1

Burnley (A) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 1

Everton (H) Shots on target - 1
Goals - 1

Man City (H) Shots on target - 4
Goals - 3

Swansea (A) Shots on target - 2
Goals - 1

West Brom (H) Shots on target - 3
Goals - 3



Total Shots on Target - 99
Total Goals Conceded - 53

Percentage of shots on target = goals - 53.5%

Compare those figures with that of Manchester United:

Total Shots on Target - 147
Total Goals Conceded - 24

Percentage of shots on target = goals - 16.3%



If you managed to get this far, congratulations. Now, obviously we all have eyes and we can all see that our defence is shite, but the stats would suggest that our defence does a decent job of restricting shots against our goal. They certainly stop more than Man Utd's defence do. However, of course, such is the problem with such stats, that this particular metric doesn't indicate the type of shots either team faces on goal. Still, it's interesting. Just look at the difference in those figures.

Is it as simple as saying "our defence is shite and the way we play leaves us vulnerable at the back"? There's certainly an element of truth in that, but we concede less shots on target than the much-lauded Utd defence. Of course, they have the wonderful De Gea in goal.

Is it as simple as saying "both of our keepers are shite, and if we had De Gea we'd be amazing"? Well, obviously the first part of that statement is correct, but as suggested before, is it our system of playing that gives opposition strikers clear opportunities, or is it solely down to a poor defence? There's most likely both at play here, but what is for certain is the fact that if the opposition manages an effort on target, they have a better than 50% chance of scoring a goal. That's outrageous.

None of this is particularly new or surprising information, but seeing the figures laid out up there is quite striking, no pun intended. I honestly don't know how best we solve this situation.

There is little doubt that this stat will be Hanserned, and someone will say that - despite the fact that the data states every time the opposition has a shot, they are more likely score than not score - what this *actually* suggests is that we are set up defensively so that we limit goal attempts to those chances that are just more likely to score, and don't allow the opposition enough space to take random, desperate potshots (like they do against United).

Something like that anyway. just wait.

 

[Fabio]

There is little doubt that this stat will be Hanserned, and someone will say that - despite the fact that the data states every time the opposition has a shot, they are more likely score than not score - what this *actually* suggests is that we are set up defensively so that we limit goal attempts to those chances that are just more likely to score, and don't allow the opposition enough space to take random, desperate potshots (like they do against United).

Something like that anyway. just wait.

That's exactly it

We're set up to concede piss easy chances, because our defence is mostly shite that easy chances just happen
Teams don't have to try to break us down, because we're a fucking crumbling bit of digestive
It's rare there's a wondergoal against us nowadays

 

[ibromurph]

It's a hard one to get our head around.

Swansea had one decent chance and scored.

Stoke (against United) had 3 or 4 big chances and didn't score. Similarly against Arsenal, United conceded 5 or 6 huge chances and only conceded 1.

I think having a world class GK capable of wondersaves will help. Not only as he can make a great save, but his presence seems also panic opposition CFs into feeling that they need to do something special to score.

I'd like to see how many "big chances" we concede compared to our rivals. That would be quite telling.

 

[Woland]

Those keeper stats Rurik put up the other day suggest De Gea is twice as likely to make a save as Ming. Which is obvious just from watching.

But you do have to factor in the way we play. If you play a high line and pressing game then the chances you give away are often 2 on 1 and much easier than against a Rafa kinda team.

 

[Mors]

If your keeper is letting in worldies every game, then all you can do is hold your hands up. But unfortunately for us, it's a combination of them letting in shots straight at them, or the near post, and the defence letting attackers get shots off in the worst types of places. I think before he came, mongolet looked great, because the defence were letting him get pummeled by shots that he should be saving, at a bit more of a distance etc. Our defence doesn't offer that sort of protection, so mongolet looks even worse than he already is.
If you had stats for 1vs1's on the keeper, you'd expect the stats to be high, skewed towards the striker. Whereas shots for 30+yards would be skewed the other way. The team have got to stop letting people getting shots in dangerous places, and the keepers not to do the basics, or fuck off.

 

[Insignificance]

When it has got far enough for the VAR to even sympatize with Ming and offer him protection, I think we don't need anymore proof about our goalie situation.

 

[Best Believe It]

Those keeper stats Rurik put up the other day suggest De Gea is twice as likely to make a save as Ming. Which is obvious just from watching.

But you do have to factor in the way we play. If you play a high line and pressing game then the chances you give away are often 2 on 1 and much easier than against a Rafa kinda team.

Oddly, for a team ethic (ie coherent, unified pressing/counter-pressing approach), Klopp's system does seem to be reliant on individually very good players in order for it to be effective. It doesn't seem to be a greater than the sum of its parts set-up, which seems strangely at odds with him as a manager.

 

[Tinto]

This shot-on-target=goal-conceded isn't new for us. Reina started this whole thing when he got fat.

We had similar stats for shots allowed verses goals conceded under Rodgers too. It's a reason why Rodger's replaced Reina with Ming as Ming was supposed to be the superior shot stopper.

 

[juniormember]

Oddly, for a team ethic (ie coherent, unified pressing/counter-pressing approach), Klopp's system does seem to be reliant on individually very good players in order for it to be effective. It doesn't seem to be a greater than the sum of its parts set-up, which seems strangely at odds with him as a manager.

Looking at his record against sides with far more money and better players all round (and deeper squads), I’d say he manages to get his teams playing way above the sum of its parts. Same at Dortmund.
If only our midfielders weren’t so shit.. and the goalies. And defence.