Salah’s future

[Frogfish]

How many names do you want Froggy - and what do you mean by different / how narrow do you need it to be for your claim to have merit - these are all forwards - a mixture of styles and attributes.

Is Salah a party boy with a history of boozing it up? Does he have a history of injuries? Is he a poor trainer? Does his refuelling habits involve visiting the local chippy regularly? Is he out of shape?

I’m calling you out on the stats thing because I thing you’re bullshitting.

He’s down in some areas - mainly carries and dribbling and his mid range pass completion is a bit off, but I think he’s also receiving the ball less. His assists, goals per minute played (your favourite stat), short and long range passing - they’re all up.

Tackles. Blocks and challenges aren’t noticeably different to his average.

So please, by all means jets get done stats that highlight his decline and let’s dive into them to see what they mean - because, to me they’re not going off a cliff - and that’s also taking into account we’re trying to play to Donkey’s “strengths” as much as Salahs.

Again - we’ve hot issues across the entire front line - all 3 of the positions - madness to try and sort it in one window in my opinion.l and equally, I’m not all in on getting rid of the player that delivers most of our goals and assists just yet.

Names : I don't see the point in naming players that have never relied on pace or on the greatest players of all time. He's not in that argument (GOAT) so pointless comparing. If they drop off they are still light years ahead of most (although Ronaldo clearly struggled at United).

The 'we are trying to play to Nunez's strengths as much as Salah's' is clearly a Red Herring because it doesn't matter who is in the team the majority of our play usually goes down the right.

Let's just have a look at a few of the names you mentioned (Giggs and Henry are from different eras, what is the point of comparing players in physically easier eras) :

You named Aguero : played less than 900 mins in his last 2 seasons (City and Barca) and retired at 33, so he was fucked at 31. Mo's 32 in June.
Ibrahimović : who couldn't be further from Salah in style, pace and energy expended.
Del Piero : played very very few minutes in his last few seasons ... and in Italy.
Benzema : THE exception.
Suarez : He did OK at Atletico but he was basically a bit part player, his last serious season was at Barca (21 starts) at 33. Mo's 32 in June.
Henry : played far fewer minutes in his last serious season in Europe (2009/10), and at 33, than Salah has this season. Mo's 32 in June.
Lewandowski : more akin to Abramovic than Salah.

What does this tell us? That we have to scratch around to find anyone who we can use as an example, and that they weren't playing in the PL. For me the very best example is Binomial's suggestion - Vardy but he spent plenty of time outside of the PL and is obviously a class or two below.

On top of all that we are talking the PL ... not Italy, Germany or Spain where there are plenty of games a player can coast through, and Mo's 32 in June.

Now let's have a mini-precis of how well he works for the team : his pressing is down & his tracking back is down, offering little to the defence (Trent) which means we have to make adjustments to compensate. Is this going to improve with age?

For me it's pretty clear. If we have no option then we have no option (that is both Slot wants him and Mo wants to stay). I won't moan about it (too much) if he stays - he's been brilliant for us. But it'll more than likely be his last season so I don't see the point when we're overhauling the team, to keep him for another year or two.
However, I'd be a lot happier with money in the bank to choose a younger, more energetic, and frankly, just looking at just the PL players in his position (and at inferior teams) that I named, more goals. I want us to look to the future not the past because Mo. won't last past next season (at most) at his early 23/24 season level and this is the last chance to get a decent fee for him.

 

[Frogfish]

How many do you want?

Rush was scoring regularly for us until 33-34, Ian Wright till he was even older at Arsenal.

Genuinely are you trying to say that no player over the age of 32 other than Ronaldo & Messi (which Froggy actually did say) has or is playing at a high level.

Are we limiting it to teams that win the League and champions league in the hope you can say “there’s only a couple”.

This is just doubling down on nonsense.

Haha why not go back to the 1890s?

 

[Frogfish]

It does make me laugh a bit that we are supposed to believe that he'd accept a move to Saudi, and therefore also accept that he can't do it at the top level anymore, yet at the same time we can't possibly keep him because he will insist on playing for us at the top level every week!

Well you're making the assumption that is the reason he'd go there. When I gave a list of the reasons why Saudi would be attractive to him, that wasn't one of them.

 

[rurikbird]

Who the fuck is Abramovic?

 

[Farkmaster]

How many do you want?

Rush was scoring regularly for us until 33-34, Ian Wright till he was even older at Arsenal.

Genuinely are you trying to say that no player over the age of 32 other than Ronaldo & Messi (which Froggy actually did say) has or is playing at a high level.

Are we limiting it to teams that win the League and champions league in the hope you can say “there’s only a couple”.

This is just doubling down on nonsense.

I don't think it never happens, i think it is very rare that a forward is a core player for a top team, especially in England. You've come up with a handful of exceptions that prove the rule, stretching over 3 decades, and several that are stretching. The demands and the fixture congestion of the game has increased massively. Over this 30 year period you've drawn from there were an order of magnitude more times when a player lost a step and was shipped on, being replaced by the next shit hot young striker.

It makes sense for some players more than others, and I think it's even more rare when pace is a significant part of the formula for a player, which I think it is for Salah. I'm not comparing them to Salah to invalidate them, I'm comparing them to Salah to see whether they are instructive.

I'm not using some general rule as a reason not to want Salah by the way. Salah, his performances, and his athleticism are what does that for me, and have for some time. It should be a general reason to look very suspiciously at Salah though, given that he is paid more than anyone, generally falls off during a season massively, and doesn't seem to be interested in reducing his game time.

 

[Frogfish]

Who the fuck is Abramovic?

Haha fuck my spellchecker.

 

[Richey]

Well you're making the assumption that is the reason he'd go there. When I gave a list of the reasons why Saudi would be attractive to him, that wasn't one of them.

I didn't actually have you in mind when I posted that, as (although I disagree with you) you have been consistent in your view.

That said though, you kinda DID list that as one of the reasons. You said that one of the reasons he might wish to go to Saudi is that he'll have noticed his own decline. If not exactly the same, that is similar to him admitting that he can't do it anymore at the top level.

 

[King Binny]

View: https://twitter.com/michael_reid11/status/1785309817105486245

 

[Frogfish]

View: https://twitter.com/michael_reid11/status/1785309817105486245

A clarification here because it makes his record look a lot better in relation to others than it really is.

Of Mo's 5 goals in the PL this year 2 were penalties. So his other 3 goals work out at 1 goal per 204 mins (612 mins played in the PL in 2024). He's had 2 assists in the PL so G/A in 2024 is 1 per 132 mins.

 

[Donavan Ried]

I'm sorry but this is just leaning on his historical highs. Frankly I've no interest in them at this moment. What I want to know is can he continue to be a relevant part of the team, and not just the attack, next season.
And will he leave on a free when we could find his replacement now (which would likely be a better replacement than if he leaves on a free).

Let's be clear, 12 non penalty PL goals is Nunez level. Not elite PL leading goal scorer level.

And the Salah apologists keep avoiding the other pertinent questions :

How about his lost pace?
What of his shooting that has lost power and accuracy
Where has his trickery and dribbling gone?
Where is his pressing and how will the lack of it affect the team?
What of his defensive actions that seem to be non existant?
He'll be 32 to start next season and finish it at almost 33? Are you sure they're isn't going to be a cliff drop in performance?
How much is he worth now compared to the end of the season (zilch)?

Could not agree with this more..
Salah for most of you is like that old armchair.. It is a long way off it's best, creeking, and falling a part,But you don't want rid of it, becuase it is so comfortable
People get rid and get something new, it will only get worse

 

[King Binny]

There are other things to consider too while looking at those stats:
- "in all competitions"
- penalties everyone in the list took during the period of time (Salah 4, Palmer 5, Cunha 2, Isak 4, Haaland 1)
- team's shot conversation


View: https://twitter.com/oilysailor/status/1783249541346513015

 

[StevieM]

I don't think it never happens, i think it is very rare that a forward is a core player for a top team, especially in England. You've come up with a handful of exceptions that prove the rule, stretching over 3 decades, and several that are stretching. The demands and the fixture congestion of the game has increased massively. Over this 30 year period you've drawn from there were an order of magnitude more times when a player lost a step and was shipped on, being replaced by the next shit hot young striker.

It makes sense for some players more than others, and I think it's even more rare when pace is a significant part of the formula for a player, which I think it is for Salah. I'm not comparing them to Salah to invalidate them, I'm comparing them to Salah to see whether they are instructive.

I'm not using some general rule as a reason not to want Salah by the way. Salah, his performances, and his athleticism are what does that for me, and have for some time. It should be a general reason to look very suspiciously at Salah though, given that he is paid more than anyone, generally falls off during a season massively, and doesn't seem to be interested in reducing his game time.

Jesus Christ Farky - they were players off the top of my head - not some in depth analysis - and still you find ways to discredit it like you’re dissecting a post grad thesis.

You keep narrowing the criteria - point has to be a top team… and recently, and then pat yourself on the back when there is only a few and any that do fit the criteria are “exceptions that prove the rule”.

It’s a simple question really - do you think an excellent pro, who looks after his body, is fit, has no history of injuries and has delivered 15+ goals in 7 consecutive seasons might be able to continue doing that past the age if 32.

Everything points to yes.

 

[StevieM]

Names : I don't see the point in naming players that have never relied on pace or on the greatest players of all time. He's not in that argument (GOAT) so pointless comparing. If they drop off they are still light years ahead of most (although Ronaldo clearly struggled at United).

The 'we are trying to play to Nunez's strengths as much as Salah's' is clearly a Red Herring because it doesn't matter who is in the team the majority of our play usually goes down the right.

Let's just have a look at a few of the names you mentioned (Giggs and Henry are from different eras, what is the point of comparing players in physically easier eras) :

You named Aguero : played less than 900 mins in his last 2 seasons (City and Barca) and retired at 33, so he was fucked at 31. Mo's 32 in June.
Ibrahimović : who couldn't be further from Salah in style, pace and energy expended.
Del Piero : played very very few minutes in his last few seasons ... and in Italy.
Benzema : THE exception.
Suarez : He did OK at Atletico but he was basically a bit part player, his last serious season was at Barca (21 starts) at 33. Mo's 32 in June.
Henry : played far fewer minutes in his last serious season in Europe (2009/10), and at 33, than Salah has this season. Mo's 32 in June.
Lewandowski : more akin to Abramovic than Salah.

What does this tell us? That we have to scratch around to find anyone who we can use as an example, and that they weren't playing in the PL. For me the very best example is Binomial's suggestion - Vardy but he spent plenty of time outside of the PL and is obviously a class or two below.

On top of all that we are talking the PL ... not Italy, Germany or Spain where there are plenty of games a player can coast through, and Mo's 32 in June.

Now let's have a mini-precis of how well he works for the team : his pressing is down & his tracking back is down, offering little to the defence (Trent) which means we have to make adjustments to compensate. Is this going to improve with age?

For me it's pretty clear. If we have no option then we have no option (that is both Slot wants him and Mo wants to stay). I won't moan about it (too much) if he stays - he's been brilliant for us. But it'll more than likely be his last season so I don't see the point when we're overhauling the team, to keep him for another year or two.
However, I'd be a lot happier with money in the bank to choose a younger, more energetic, and frankly, just looking at just the PL players in his position (and at inferior teams) that I named, more goals. I want us to look to the future not the past because Mo. won't last past next season (at most) at his early 23/24 season level and this is the last chance to get a decent fee for him.

It was you that brought up Messi & Ronaldo and said you wanted examples of other players that played at top teams into their 30’s.

Now, when you have some, it’s all “different era”, “different type of player”, “nah team isn’t top enough”, and even, “his last good season was when he was 33” - which kind of proves the that not quite 32 yo probably has 1-2 more seasons.

It’s just nuts. You haven’t even looked at the reasons why a top forward could continue into his 30’s and tried to figure out whether Salah meets that criteria - surely that’s the way to do it, no?

Anyway, where are these stats that show everything other than assists are in decline?

 

[Farkmaster]

Jesus Christ Farky - they were players off the top of my head - not some in depth analysis - and still you find ways to discredit it like you’re dissecting a post grad thesis.

You keep narrowing the criteria - point has to be a top team… and recently, and then pat yourself on the back when there is only a few and any that do fit the criteria are “exceptions that prove the rule”.

It’s a simple question really - do you think an excellent pro, who looks after his body, is fit, has no history of injuries and has delivered 15+ goals in 7 consecutive seasons might be able to continue doing that past the age if 32.

Everything points to yes.

Again, the original prompt that began this circular argument was a top team. It's you that threw in peter crouch.

I just don't think most players who succeed when they are older, which is already fairly rare, are players like Salah.

The riposte to this seems to be that Salah is evolving, and that perhaps he will even play in a new role to suit his evolution. I'll refrain from calling this his diminished capacity for the sake of argument. We've seen what he does this season, the good and the bad, from deeper lying positions. He can pick out some devastating passes with runners in front of him. He can also skull fuck our team by losing the ball, because his entire career has been one where you find danger and risk and attack, not one of considering "what if this doesn't come off." He is poor at retaining the ball, and is horribly at hold up play.

So yeah, a new position for Salah. Maybe old dogs are going to learn new tricks with less athletic ability. Doesn't sound risky at all. Pay the man whatever he wants.

 

[StevieM]

I’m

Again, the original prompt that began this circular argument was a top team. It's you that threw in peter crouch.

I just don't think most players who succeed when they are older, which is already fairly rare, are players like Salah.

The riposte to this seems to be that Salah is evolving, and that perhaps he will even play in a new role to suit his evolution. I'll refrain from calling this his diminished capacity for the sake of argument. We've seen what he does this season, the good and the bad, from deeper lying positions. He can pick out some devastating passes with runners in front of him. He can also skull fuck our team by losing the ball, because his entire career has been one where you find danger and risk and attack, not one of considering "what if this doesn't come off." He is poor at retaining the ball, and is horribly at hold up play.

So yeah, a new position for Salah. Maybe old dogs are going to learn new tricks with less athletic ability. Doesn't sound risky at all. Pay the man whatever he wants.

What’s wrong with Crouchy!!!!

 

[Frogfish]

It was you that brought up Messi & Ronaldo and said you wanted examples of other players that played at top teams into their 30’s.

Now, when you have some, it’s all “different era”, “different type of player”, “nah team isn’t top enough”, and even, “his last good season was when he was 33” - which kind of proves the that not quite 32 yo probably has 1-2 more seasons.

It’s just nuts. You haven’t even looked at the reasons why a top forward could continue into his 30’s and tried to figure out whether Salah meets that criteria - surely that’s the way to do it, no?

Anyway, where are these stats that show everything other than assists are in decline?

I excluded Messi and Ronaldo for obvious reasons - not included them.

The 2 x 33 yrs referred to were Suarez who only started 21 games at 33 and Aguero who played 900 mins in 2 years so was effectively fucked at 31. Not shining examples.

And yes we have all looked extensively at the reasons why Mo. may be already shot (so how is that nuts or are you just ignoring the previous 10 pages) - his obvious drop in pace and his obvious lack of pressing and defending (to say nothing of weak shooting), as if half the forum hasn't already noted and mentioned this.

The only questions remaining are : was this past half season a blip and he'll return to his previous highs (difficult to see if his pace has dropped off that much) and whether this lower level Salah is worth retaining and how much it will affect the team as a whole.

Everyone has different opinions on those. I'd rather not take the gamble.

 

[StevieM]

I excluded Messi and Ronaldo for obvious reasons - not included them.

The 2 x 33 yrs referred to were Suarez who only started 21 games at 33 and Aguero who played 900 mins in 2 years so was effectively fucked at 31. Not shining examples.

And yes we have all looked extensively at the reasons why Mo. may be already shot (so how is that nuts or are you just ignoring the previous 10 pages) - his obvious drop in pace and his obvious lack of pressing and defending (to say nothing of weak shooting), as if half the forum hasn't already noted and mentioned this.

The only questions remaining are : was this past half season a blip and he'll return to his previous highs (difficult to see if his pace has dropped off that much) and whether this lower level Salah is worth retaining and how much it will affect the team as a whole.

Everyone has different opinions on those. I'd rather not take the gamble.

It can’t be a blip is it’s pretty much what he’s been doing every season.

The blip is more likely the downturn in goals and assists over the last couple of months - which you can link to AFCON, injury and probably that little dip around Ramadan.

I get slowing down - the pressing is a red herring because he’s never been that good at pressing and the primary press on the right always comes from the RM - Harvey & Slobbers normally - It was Hendo before than.

You say that Suarez only started 21 games aged 33 - yet he played 2000 minutes in the league for Barca that year and then went on to play the same for 2 more years at Atletico. For context’s, that’s how many minutes Nunez this season and more than he logged last season.

It all boils down to whether these last few weeks, where his performances have been rubbish AND his output not great is the norm or not or whether there are other factors.

I think there are other factors / and I’d trust Salah to score more than Nunez next season.

 

[Brizzle]

We should sell-to-buy, and let the wages from Mo along with any transfer fee help Slot build the team he wants. He might want to keep Mo, which is great. But what won't help a manager who we need to give time to 'slot in' is being forced to keep a player in decline who is showing he is developing a toxic mentality from not starting (even when he isn't performing).

 

[keniget]

It can’t be a blip is it’s pretty much what he’s been doing every season.

The blip is more likely the downturn in goals and assists over the last couple of months - which you can link to AFCON, injury and probably that little dip around Ramadan.

I get slowing down - the pressing is a red herring because he’s never been that good at pressing and the primary press on the right always comes from the RM - Harvey & Slobbers normally - It was Hendo before than.

You say that Suarez only started 21 games aged 33 - yet he played 2000 minutes in the league for Barca that year and then went on to play the same for 2 more years at Atletico. For context’s, that’s how many minutes Nunez this season and more than he logged last season.

It all boils down to whether these last few weeks, where his performances have been rubbish AND his output not great is the norm or not or whether there are other factors.

I think there are other factors / and I’d trust Salah to score more than Nunez next season.

I'm wading into an argument I haven't really followed so I don't know what exactly you're arguing about but...

I'd say, yes, Salah will likely be able to continue to put up numbers for the next few years. He appears to looks after himself, isn't particulary injury prone and has an ego that needs feeding.

I'd still strongly consider selling him though along with a couple others.

Suarez - to borrow your example - was still quality in his later years but was noticeably sluggish. Salah is getting to that point now and in a team like ours that can only really "win" by being greater than the sum of it's parts, we may be better off getting a younger model in the long run.

The other issue to consider is that we already pay a luxury tax on the right with TAA. Having an aging Salah ahead of him just further exacerbates the situation and adds too much pressure on the midfield (which has it's own problems).

If we had - or buy - a great young talent for the RW (Doak is not it) then maybe yeah, there is a stronger argument for keeping Salah and rotating the two for another season or two.

 

[Farkmaster]

I'm wading into an argument I haven't really followed so I don't know what exactly you're arguing about but...

I'd say, yes, Salah will likely be able to continue to put up numbers for the next few years. He appears to looks after himself, isn't particulary injury prone and has an ego that needs feeding.

I'd still strongly consider selling him though along with a couple others.

Suarez - to borrow your example - was still quality in his later years but was noticeably sluggish. Salah is getting to that point now and in a team like ours that can only really "win" by being greater than the sum of it's parts, we may be better off getting a younger model in the long run.

The other issue to consider is that we already pay a luxury tax on the right with TAA. Having an aging Salah ahead of him just further exacerbates the situation and adds too much pressure on the midfield (which has it's own problems).

If we had - or buy - a great young talent for the RW (Doak is not it) then maybe yeah, there is a stronger argument for keeping Salah and rotating the two for another season or two.

Would you like that sales pitch as a great young talent at RW?

The issues structurally we have at RW are an opportunity. Fix that and you can unlock a better football team. Szobo for instance, might have better things to do than play right back. Since some assure me that Salah could maintain his scoring in a new position, I wonder whether Szobo could increase his scoring by playing more like how he generally has in his career. This is just one little example of why I don't worry about "lost goals" so much as I worry about how we are playing.

 

[StevieM]

I'm wading into an argument I haven't really followed so I don't know what exactly you're arguing about but...

I'd say, yes, Salah will likely be able to continue to put up numbers for the next few years. He appears to looks after himself, isn't particulary injury prone and has an ego that needs feeding.

I'd still strongly consider selling him though along with a couple others.

Suarez - to borrow your example - was still quality in his later years but was noticeably sluggish. Salah is getting to that point now and in a team like ours that can only really "win" by being greater than the sum of it's parts, we may be better off getting a younger model in the long run.

The other issue to consider is that we already pay a luxury tax on the right with TAA. Having an aging Salah ahead of him just further exacerbates the situation and adds too much pressure on the midfield (which has it's own problems).

If we had - or buy - a great young talent for the RW (Doak is not it) then maybe yeah, there is a stronger argument for keeping Salah and rotating the two for another season or two.

None of that I disagree with and I’ve said before - if he wants to go or the right deal presents itself, then I’d sell too.

However, there’s a case for signing new forwards for all 3 of the forward positions so it’s down to how many we replace and for me the more we replace in one window, the greater the chances are that we drop down the league.

I’d prefer to do it over time and I don’t care if we let him leave on a free if we don’t get a suitable offer.

I also don’t think Salah is done as a top flight player.

 

[keniget]

Would you like that sales pitch as a great young talent at RW?

Depends where I'm coming from, what my options are and where I am in my development.

If I've got offers from other top teams then we'd need to make it more competitive for sure. If I'm 18/19 and like Salah, I might see it as a plus to learn from him.

That said, we don't generally buy from the top shelf anyways... most players we get seem pleased just to be here.

 

[rubans]

We should sell-to-buy, and let the wages from Mo along with any transfer fee help Slot build the team he wants. He might want to keep Mo, which is great. But what won't help a manager who we need to give time to 'slot in' is being forced to keep a player in decline who is showing he is developing a toxic mentality from not starting (even when he isn't performing).

Toxic Mentality because he threw his first real hissy fit for the first time in 7yrs?, at least he gives a shit. I wouldn't say it's a permanent thing ye, Slot will need to sit down and explain how next season looks for him interms of game time and then it will be down to decide next steps.

 

[rurikbird]

View: https://twitter.com/SimonBrundish/status/1786039902519382039

Nunez and Diaz underperformance in front of goal is what really cost us this season.

 

[Frogfish]

View: https://twitter.com/SimonBrundish/status/1786039902519382039

Nunez and Diaz underperformance in front of goal is what really cost us this season.

Oh what bollocks. Of course VAR, Injuries and the defence had nothing to do with it.

 

[rurikbird]

Oh what bollocks. Of course VAR, Injuries and the defence had nothing to do with it.

Obviously there are many factors. But goals change games and every one of these missed big chances was an opportunity to change a close game in our favour that wasn’t taken.

 

[Frogfish]

Obviously there are many factors. But goals change games and every one of these missed big chances was an opportunity to change a close game in our favour that wasn’t taken.

And so was every goal conceded - 14 times going behind?
And VAR cost us wins vs Spurs, Arsenal and City.
With a huge injury list denying us on plenty of other occasions.

It's beyond petty and is agenda driven to say Nunez and Diaz cost us the title.

 

[MomoWASright]

Maybe we went behind by missing chances first.

It’s a complex thing but what is in our control the most was sticking the ball in the net and not missing as many big chances.

 

[rubans]

Maybe we went behind by missing chances first.

It’s a complex thing but what is in our control the most was sticking the ball in the net and not missing as many big chances.

I think other way around, we often went behind early on by starting poorly then prompting us into action. The number of points we gained from come back at points was not normal and unmaintable. We missed plenty too but often that was after we went behind.

 

[MomoWASright]

I think other way around, we often went behind early on by starting poorly then prompting us into action. The number of points we gained from come back at points was not normal and unmaintable. We missed plenty too but often that was after we went behind.

I’m gonna disagree. We remember those games where we went behind proper early (Bournemouth first game and recently Brighton) stick in the memories. Opposite to that we had (well Nunez did) have chances recently against Palace and Atalanta.

I always get that feeling if we miss two chances at nil nil we end up going behind.