@King Binny In your opinion is this guy really worth £70m or would you rather we paid around £30m for Leon Goretzka?
Price wise, it's really hard to gauge how worthy/logical it is in today's crazy market. Nathan Ake, who has only 30 starts in top flight football went for £20m and Renato Sanches left for £30m + add ons on the back of his debut season with 22 starts. On the other hand, Corentin Tolisso who had 3.5 seasons of solid Ligue 1 footing cost £35 million + add ons. There are so many factors involved - players current ability, player's potential, role/importance to selling club, time left on contract contract, buying club's need + player's suitability to its playing style etc.
From Leipzig's point of view - it doesn't make sense to sell the player if the fee is similar/lesser than that of his release clause which kicks in next yr (£48m?). Then, there's also ambition for CL progression and league position consolidation.
For us, we have to consider if paying above our valuation for him is worthwhile if it helps us steal a march on our rivals who may jump at the the opportunity to activate the clause. Logically speaking, he will only get better so his valuation will only continue to rise. Who's to say he won't sign an improved contract with a higher buy out fee (since he needn't worry about being short of takers)? Will we regret on the missed opportunity by then? How many players in his position of his age and calibre are ready to come into the starting XI now the way he can? Having excelled in RB Salzburg and Leipzig's style of play gives him an added advantage too. Thus, I'll have Keita over Goretzka at the suggested prices.
Unlike spending £32.5m on Benteke and £36m Carroll, both of whom majority of us had major doubts for, this is a different type of 'concern' over transfer fee. Just like how money 'saved' from not spending in the Jan transfer window can be rolled over, I don't think it will hurt to spend subsequent transfer windows' budgets 'in advance' - provided that the player is right for us. The likes of Mane, Coutinho, Salah, Firmino, Matip, Clyne are all around 25. Imagine IF we get van Dijk and Keita (turning 26 and 23 respectively), there wouldn't be urgent need to invest heavily on starting XI players for various key positions.
Meanwhile, let's not forget that making the top 4 will only get increasingly difficult (besides the other 'Big 5' sides, even the likes of Everton and Bournemouth are splashing the cash and will continue to do so ). I think we all agreed how crucial it was to make it to the top 4 last season and that this transfer window is one of the most important ones in recent years which we have to capitalize on. Not that it's mutually exclusive, but between overpaying within our means to enhance our immediate chances of challenging for top honours vs. landing 2nd/3rd choice alternatives and end up failing to consolidate our league position and push for growth, I'll definitely go for the former.
