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Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?

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manwithnoname said:
Cruise market is quite old anyway, so maybe the next generation will have enough time to recover/ forget?

It's a horrible situation for the entire travel/ tourism/ aviation market really, because they have almost zero cash reserves, and so many local and non-local interdependencies that all need eachother, and all need cash flowing - from the airlines, through to the hotels in Spain, to the fella selling melons on the beach in Denia.

I reckon 25% of the industry could disappear, at least in 2020.
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When looking at carbon emissions and the likes, eventually eliminating the cruise industry would be a big step. Obviously planes are need for getting people around the world and cargo ships are necessary but cruise ships are massive pollutants. Also I can't think of any holiday I'd hate more than going on a cruise.
 
Aidan O' Neill said:
When looking at carbon emissions and the likes, eventually eliminating the cruise industry would be a big step. Obviously planes are need for getting people around the world and cargo ships are necessary but cruise ships are massive pollutants. Also I can't think of any holiday I'd hate more than going on a cruise.
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I heard that the cruise ships have two different types of fuels, one is a cleaner diesel which they use when they're coming into port, and then whenever they're out at sea a bit more they use the dirtiest cheap fuel that they can get.
 
the count said:
Actually one woman was protesting so she could get her roots done.
Seriously.
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levi-crop.jpg
 
Aidan O' Neill said:
It's nuts isn't it? I have nothing against them being brought in if they can't get Irish workers to pick, but they need two weeks hotel isolation at minimum before allowing them to start work.
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That's what's happening though is it not? I may have imagined it, but think they said they'll all be isolated for 14 days?
 
Mors said:
I do wonder if this will be the straw that broke the camels back for some european members that were already getting itchy feet about coming out.
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For Italy it might be.

The ECB response to Italy was go fuck yourself. We're not here to help.

Why a lawyer with no grasp of economics is head of the ECB is a mystery but not surprisingly she's a disaster.

The stand off on the debt mutualisation is probably what will cause a serious EU split though
 
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Athens said:
Although Austria shut the borders to Italy. And I think some other countries also closed borders.
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The German - Czech - Austria - Swiss borders were closed too. And probably any others Germany had common borders with. Not sure about Austria but with Slovenia & Hungary likely.
 
Switzerland will allow hairdressers, beauty salons and some other businesses to re-open from 27 April, followed by shops and schools next month.
 
Richey said:
To be honest I am very much hoping that hairdressers are high on the reopening list here too when the time comes!
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Garden equipment shops have reopened here this week .... I'll send you a pair of garden shears. Actually come to think of it, pet store are still open here too ... would you prefer sheep shears perhaps ?
 
Frogfish said:
Garden equipment shops have reopened here this week .... I'll send you a pair of garden shears. Actually come to think of it, pet store are still open here too ... would you prefer sheep shears perhaps ?
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It hasn’t QUITE come to that yet, but anything is better than giving in to my wife’s increasing offers/threats to cut my hair (despite having no qualifications to do so, and presumably with kitchen scissors).
 
Rosco said:
For Italy it might be.

The ECB response to Italy was go fuck yourself. We're not here to help.

Why a lawyer with no grasp of economics is head of the ECB is a mystery but not surprisingly she's a disaster.

The stand off on the debt mutualisation is probably what will cause a serious EU split though
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I foresee them leaving the euro. Which would be pretty good for their stock market upon its revaluation in lira.
 
dantes said:
I foresee them leaving the euro. Which would be pretty good for their stock market upon its revaluation in lira.
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I know fuck all about economics but there's a former Irish Central Bank economist who is a bit of a public figure on economics in Ireland called David McWilliams. He's interesting to listen to because he can see through the bullshit.

Anyway back before Ireland made any decisions one the crisis he said the best and most effective thing the Dept of Finance could do was "helicopter money". Bypass the banks and simply deposit money in citizens accounts so there is still a cashflow in the economy.

About a week later we did the wage guarantee for employees - which is effectively the same thing.

A couple of weeks later he said if our central bank had any cop on they would take advantage of the ECB making funds available at minus interest rates. Basically by forcing the banks to refinance all mortgages with the new funding available and putting all existing mortgages on 1% finance (as opposed to around 3% as it is now). It would reintroduce 1.5 billion into the economy immediately at no cost, and provide an ongoing benefit for years.

Still no action on that front though.
 
Rosco said:
I know fuck all about economics but there's a former Irish Central Bank economist who is a bit of a public figure on economics in Ireland called David McWilliams. He's interesting to listen to because he can see through the bullshit.

Anyway back before Ireland made any decisions one the crisis he said the best and most effective thing the Dept of Finance could do was "helicopter money". Bypass the banks and simply deposit money in citizens accounts so there is still a cashflow in the economy.

About a week later we did the wage guarantee for employees - which is effectively the same thing.

A couple of weeks later he said if our central bank had any cop on they would take advantage of the ECB making funds available at minus interest rates. Basically by forcing the banks to refinance all mortgages with the new funding available and putting all existing mortgages on 1% finance (as opposed to around 3% as it is now). It would reintroduce 1.5 billion into the economy immediately at no cost, and provide an ongoing benefit for years.

Still no action on that front though.
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Only started listening to him a month or two ago, he's on the ball. Seems to have a solid take on everything economic.
 
Rosco said:
I know fuck all about economics but there's a former Irish Central Bank economist who is a bit of a public figure on economics in Ireland called David McWilliams. He's interesting to listen to because he can see through the bullshit.

Anyway back before Ireland made any decisions one the crisis he said the best and most effective thing the Dept of Finance could do was "helicopter money". Bypass the banks and simply deposit money in citizens accounts so there is still a cashflow in the economy.

About a week later we did the wage guarantee for employees - which is effectively the same thing.

A couple of weeks later he said if our central bank had any cop on they would take advantage of the ECB making funds available at minus interest rates. Basically by forcing the banks to refinance all mortgages with the new funding available and putting all existing mortgages on 1% finance (as opposed to around 3% as it is now). It would reintroduce 1.5 billion into the economy immediately at no cost, and provide an ongoing benefit for years.

Still no action on that front though.
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The problem with doing that is money is a commodity in essence (just like oil or wheat) and it needs to be transacted in a free market to set its price (interest rate). When the ECB or Fed want to change the interest rate, they don't do it by just declaring it so, they have to follow through by going into the market and buying enough short term and long term bonds to get the rate where they say they want it to be. Helicopter money bypasses that part of the transaction totally, meaning that the price of money is no longer good, and people are not idiots they will proceed to sell the fuck out of your currency if they don't believe its price is correct.

However, central banks are growing less and less in touch with reality with each recession. With this bail out now, it is absolutely enormous compared to before, and even then it's still not going to be enough. The amount of money they are printing is nowhere near enough to cover the loss in gdp. What is worse, this time when they go into the free market to buy bonds... they no longer care about the rating of those bonds. Last time they only bought government and investment grade bonds which are "safe". What they are doing this time is buying junk bonds as well. Think sub prime. They give zero fucks. They just want to own the world as far as I can see and are using coronavirus as an excuse. So that debt that was already sky high, is not only going to get higher, but is now going to include junk bonds.
 
Gerry_A_Trick said:
That's what's happening though is it not? I may have imagined it, but think they said they'll all be isolated for 14 days?
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Apparently they are based is Termonfeckin which is about 10 miles from me. The local gossip is that they have been out in the village and Drogheda & Dundalk in numbers today.
 
dantes said:
The problem with doing that is money is a commodity in essence (just like oil or wheat) and it needs to be transacted in a free market to set its price (interest rate). When the ECB or Fed want to change the interest rate, they don't do it by just declaring it so, they have to follow through by going into the market and buying enough short term and long term bonds to get the rate where they say they want it to be. Helicopter money bypasses that part of the transaction totally, meaning that the price of money is no longer good, and people are not idiots they will proceed to sell the fuck out of your currency if they don't believe its price is correct.

However, central banks are growing less and less in touch with reality with each recession. With this bail out now, it is absolutely enormous compared to before, and even then it's still not going to be enough. The amount of money they are printing is nowhere near enough to cover the loss in gdp. What is worse, this time when they go into the free market to buy bonds... they no longer care about the rating of those bonds. Last time they only bought government and investment grade bonds which are "safe". What they are doing this time is buying junk bonds as well. Think sub prime. They give zero fucks. They just want to own the world as far as I can see and are using coronavirus as an excuse. So that debt that was already sky high, is not only going to get higher, but is now going to include junk bonds.
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But the value of money is only decreased if inflation occurs.

So it's just a matter of keeping a reign on inflation. Which should be easy right now
 
Jack D Rips said:
Apparently they are based is Termonfeckin which is about 10 miles from me. The local gossip is that they have been out in the village and Drogheda & Dundalk in numbers today.
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It could be worse.

Armed gardai will be monitoring whether a Traveller funeral tomorrow morning will be the focus of breaching strict coronavirus regulations and if violence could break out in the aftermath of it.

The funeral in north Dublin is due to go ahead after the death of a highly respected member of the Traveller community aged in his late 70’s who is understood to have died earlier this week from complications linked to Covid-19.

Senior sources expressed “grave concern” after gardai received intelligence that “up to 70 members” of the deceased man’s family were planning to travel from the UK to attend the funeral
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Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said on Friday there has never been a cover-up of the coronavirus outbreak in China because the government does not allow any cover-ups.

Zhao told reporters at a daily briefing that the revision of the case toll in Wuhan, where the epidemic first emerged in late 2019, was the result of a statistical verification to ensure accuracy and that revision is a common international practice.

Wuhan's health authority earlier on Thursday revised up its cumulative death toll by 50% to 3,869 to rectify what it called incorrect reporting, delays and omissions.
 
You can believe Zhao Lijian, because he's heavily pushing the line that the US Military brought the virus to China.

And that's what me and Mors have said all along.
 
Rosco said:
But the value of money is only decreased if inflation occurs.

So it's just a matter of keeping a reign on inflation. Which should be easy right now
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The value of commodities is priced in dollars. So inflation is out of your hands when the rest of the world decides to offload the pound.

We can try to hold the exchange rate constant by using up our own foreign currency reserves. But eventually that pot runs dry and the currency tanks. Which is how Soros became a billionaire.
 
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Rosco said:
You can believe Zhao Lijian, because he's heavily pushing the line that the US Military brought the virus to China.

And that's what me and Mors have said all along.
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Hey hey hey, easy now, I said lets not rule it out
 
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