Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?

[Woland]

The imperial model has been released.

Analysis from someone at LSHTM who are advising the govt

Half million dead if we do nothing or two years of periodic suppression to get the deaths between 10,000 and 50,000. Those two years can be reduced by

1. Increasing the number of ICU beds (what we are currently doing and are going to start doing big time).
2. A vaccine and enough supply of it being available (They think 18 months for a large enough supply)
3. A Serological test so we can know who has had the virus.
4. Seasonality (but we cannot rely on this)

A bad flu year is 20k for comparison.

 

[Frogfish]

Well, I think the difference between 0000.5 and 70% is quite obviously the difference between the virus being contained (only a small number of people are potentially exposed) and not (everyone is potentially exposed). Europe and the US has missed the chance to contain and until the vaccine is available, measures like social distancing will only be effective enough to slow down the spread at best.

That's where we differ in opinion mate. As the Timeline shows containment came well after the virus was out, by about a month. 75,000 - 150,000 people a day, the highest traffic period of the year, went in/out the airport for a month before they shut it down, that's almost 5 million people. And that's without even trying to calculate the road and train traffic which would easily be a factor of x10 of the airport figure.

I wouldn't put too much faith in the quarantine / social isolation having prevented the virus traveling all over China (which actually it did - it's just that it didn't explode elsewhere for whatever reason) and there was no Wuhan-like quarantine in other major cities (other than those in Hubei province and Wenzhou).

N.B. And not 0000.5% but 0.0005% ! A thousand times lower. 😉

 

[Frogfish]

I thought I would post these here out of interest. These are the logarithmic graphs of virus infections for China, South Korea, Italy and the UK. How the virus infections started off being exponential but then tails off is quite clear. The real reasons to explain this are anything but.

 

[dantes]

The imperial model has been released.

Analysis from someone at LSHTM who are advising the govt

Half million dead if we do nothing or two years of periodic suppression to get the deaths between 10,000 and 50,000. Those two years can be reduced by

1. Increasing the number of ICU beds (what we are currently doing and are going to start doing big time).
2. A vaccine and enough supply of it being available (They think 18 months for a large enough supply)
3. A Serological test so we can know who has had the virus.
4. Seasonality (but we cannot rely on this)

A bad flu year is 20k for comparison.

Their model is shit. Climate models look like Einstein's field equations in comparison.

 

[StevieM]

I thought I would post these here out of interest. These are the logarithmic graphs of virus infections for China, South Korea, Italy and the UK. How the virus infections started off being exponential but then tails off is quite clear. The real reasons to explain this are anything but.

Have you pasted the wrong graph for the UK - it’s a different data set?

 

[Woland]

Seeing the new projections, Cheltenham 2020 will be filed in history somewhere between the atomic bomb tests at Bikini Atoll and the Soviet response to Chernobyl.

 

[Woland]

 

[LeTallecWiz]

good friend of mine, whom i've been working with for 10+ years, is one of the first 4 in Brooklyn to test positive.
he seems to be recovering now but told me it's nasty as fuck

 

[Frogfish]

Have you pasted the wrong graph for the UK - it’s a different data set?

No it's correct - I didn't title them. It's a logarithmic graph not linear. Basically showing the percentage change each day. The UK seems to be following the same trends as the others.

 

[Woland]

We're actually worse. The govt says we're a month behind Italy. That looks like 8 days to me.

 

[Frogfish]

good friend of mine, whom i've been working with for 10+ years, is one of the first 4 in Brooklyn to test positive.
he seems to be recovering now but told me it's nasty as fuck

Just seen some crazy figures as Cuomo states New York approaching 1,000 cases (which in reality probably means 10,000+).

 

[Frogfish]

We're actually worse. The govt says we're a month behind Italy. That looks like 8 days to me.

Really interesting graph. Not sure I would agree with the reasons behind Singapore and Hong Kong having lower figures (they are tiny and the graph shows absolute not relative data) so if you are the size of Anglesey (Singapore) or have small populations (both of them) then naturally they won't figure as high in a graph showing total infections, against countries with much much higher populations.
Literally, with the exception of Japan, all of the countries with high populations are at the top half of the graph and those with small populations in the bottom half - totally logical.

Malaysia and Australia are even lower when population is taken into account, Singapore's preventative measures were in place early (but the population not quarantined), Hong Kong's weren't (in relation to people crossing the border - they only invoked the 14 days quarantine period for all inbounds today) but it seems most warm countries are suffering less & could be a major factor - which would follow the usual trend for flu viruses (MERS being the exceptional - low transmission but 50% death rate - exception). Japan's is very interesting (due to isolating the elderly) ?

Let's see what it looks like in a week's time.

 

[LeTallecWiz]

Just seen some crazy figures as Cuomo states New York approaching 1,000 cases (which in reality probably means 10,000+).

US is beyond fucked.

 

[manwithnoname]

Really interesting graph. Not sure I would agree with the reasons behind Singapore and Hong Kong having lower figures (they are tiny and the graph shows absolute not relative data) so if you are the size of Anglesey (Singapore) or have small populations (both of them) then naturally they won't figure as high in a graph showing total infections, against countries with much much higher populations.
Literally, with the exception of Japan, all of the countries with high populations are at the top half of the graph and those with small populations in the bottom half - totally logical.

Malaysia and Australia are even lower when population is taken into account, Singapore's preventative measures were in place early (but the population not quarantined), Hong Kong's weren't (in relation to people crossing the border - they only invoked the 14 days quarantine period for all inbounds today) but it seems most warm countries are suffering less & could be a major factor - which would follow the usual trend for flu viruses (MERS being the exceptional - low transmission but 50% death rate - exception). Japan's is very interesting (due to isolating the elderly) ?

Let's see what it looks like in a week's time.

Japan is one of the most naturally isolationist countries in the world, with exceptionally limited immigration and a homogenous, educated society that follows orders

 

[dantes]

US is beyond fucked.

Still, in the current situation I'd much rather have their privatised healthcare providers chomping at the bit to increase capacity to make a buck. As opposed to our bozo prime minister asking people to say their goodbyes to elderly grandparents. Give it five months for people to liquidate their real estate and get back into the stock market, and it'll be time to by US healthcare companies and UK funeral companies.

 

[Frogfish]

Japan is one of the most naturally isolationist countries in the world, with exceptionally limited immigration and a homogenous, educated society that follows orders

All true. However they also have a massive tourist industry that they are actively pushing hard - I forget what I read they were trying to achieve when there last December but it's a huge increase on the current numbers. And a high percentage of those tourists are Chinese - it's literally just a hop skip and a jump, 2 hour flight, from Hongqiao Airport (15 mins from my home) to Osaka or Tokyo.


They clearly got it right though by isolating the elderly. Completely logical.

 

[6TimesaRed]

US is beyond fucked.

Less yanks the better imho, shame its New York, if only it was Texas..

 

[Halmeister]

Less yanks the better imho, shame its New York, if only it was Texas..

Could do with it being Connecticut... don't we have a couple of loony posters from there?

Given we have very few yank posters, at least two of which are from Connecticut and both are absolute rems, I think we can extrapolate that and conclude that that entire region of the US is full of mongs.

 

[Halmeister]

I may be mistaken, though.

 

[Karl Hungus]

Less yanks the better imho, shame its New York, if only it was Texas..

I will let all of that slide.


Clearly you are not thinking straight in light of these stressful times. 😉

 

[Rosco]

When was the last time he thought straight ?

 

[Athens]

I will let all of that slide.


Clearly you are not thinking straight in light of these stressful times. 😉

You don't get many yanks in Texas, do you?

 

[6TimesaRed]

I will let all of that slide.


Clearly you are not thinking straight in light of these stressful times. 😉

Depends where the yanks are from..

Though tbf, I've been scarred ever since I was a kid..

A distant relative, son of my Grandads brother or something, not sure where from in the US came to visit relatives, popped in to see my Mum and Dad.

All I can remember was him saying during the whole entire visit was how much bigger USA was than little old England.. he loved to continually point that out..

I can never forget the look on my Dads face when he pointed out the fact, time and time again for like the umpteenth time..

 

[6TimesaRed]

Ooh wow..

IR35 canned..

Postponed for 12 months.. because of the coronavirus

I've just paid for a QDos assessment which deemed me outside anyway..

But this is fantastic news.. for now at least..

 

[Woland]

 

[Y1]

The Cruise Liner Princess (something) cluster is the best data cluster for infections and fatality rate- 4000 on board in a closed environment. Passengers mostly above 70 years old. @Frogfish, what is your findings on this cluster?

 

[Woland]

It was earlier in the thread. About 700 infected, about 10 dead. Half showed no symptoms. Something like that anyways. The researchers somehow came up with a stat of 0.5& people dead who catch it in normal circs, but it's probs quite a bit lower as most young people don't die and like you say, there aren't many young people on cruises. I think the thing that will batter the UK is the lack of beds in a couple of weeks. It'll be carnage for a month or so.

 

[Y1]

UK with a high proportion of septuagenarians and octogenarians is most likely to be at a high risk fatality rate given the shortage of ICU beds.

 

[Dreambeliever]

Fuck this.

The wife's cousin in Italy was 34 and asthmatic. He died today alone in the local hospital. They tried to to get an internet connection via some iPad mini to his closer family which failed. The poor fucker died in full consciousness. He got a 'NCR' sign which means 'non candidate di rianimazione'. That meant he didn't qualify for ventilation. They simply don't have the facilities anymore.

Lads, I'm in tears here. Heaven help us.

RIP, Tommaso.

Forza Atalanta.

Only reading this now. RIP

 

[rurikbird]

NYC mayor is considering shelter-in-place directive within 2 days. Only essential personnel will be allowed to leave their homes.