Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?

[peterhague]

That's not really what I mean.

The 15 minute thing is an estimate. It's not like you spend 14 minutes with someone and there's zero chance, and 15 minutes is 100%. 15 minutes is where the percentage likelihood goes above something, let's just assume 50% likely of passing it on. At 10 minutes it's maybe 20%, at 1 minute it's maybe 1%.

So, lots of short interactions with infected people, will increase your chances of getting it. Which is pretty intuitive.

The original question was, does the actions of others impact the risk of you getting it. If their actions increase their likelihood, then it will obviously increase yours.

To use the R value example, without restrictions, this has an R of about 3.0. Meaning that each person will, on average infect 3 people, that rolls into approx 59,000 people in 10 days. For reference, common flu has a, without restrictions, R of about 1.3, which after 10 days means one person infects 14 people
Wiith restrictions, we get Covid down to 1.0 or below, so it's either stable or regressing depending on that number. If people don't follow restrictions, that number can obviously explode and affects everyone's chances of getting it.

Well like I said, it's just a practical matter of whether fleeting, practically unavoidable interactions are actually risky to some extent. If they are, then that's a bit of a problem for the idea of allowing people to bear risk at their own cost. If not, then to me it seems like the risk of catching it from strangers is something a person can control for.

Even being close to someone for as little as a minute is something someone can easily avoid if they want to.

 

[dantes]

The 15 minute thing is an estimate. It's not like you spend 14 minutes with someone and there's zero chance, and 15 minutes is 100%. 15 minutes is where the percentage likelihood goes above something, let's just assume 50% likely of passing it on. At 10 minutes it's maybe 20%, at 1 minute it's maybe 1%.

You, personally, as an individual, have a significant chance of getting infected inside 15 seconds. It depends upon the physics and chemical engineering of the environment. The timings you think are scientific, are estimated by scientists who don't understand physics, they've just bunged all the data of the entire population into excel, and plotted a bell curve, then read off the confidence intervals. Unless throughout your day, your interactions occur in a sample of environments and physical conditions that represent all the environments across the UK for everyone who lives here, then it's utterly irrelevant and will not predict the risk you are actually at in any way shape or form. You're kidding yourself.

The best way to manage your risk is to trust your brain, which has evolved to keep you alive by downloading and processing the information about the environment you're actually in at the present time. If you trust the scientific advice, you'll die.

 

[keniget]

Well like I said, it's just a practical matter of whether fleeting, practically unavoidable interactions are actually risky to some extent. If they are, then that's a bit of a problem for the idea of allowing people to bear risk at their own cost.

It's clear that they are.

If someone isn't wearing a mask and coughs and splutters in your face then it doesn't matter whether it took 1 second or 15minutes.

 

[peterhague]

It's clear that they are.

If someone isn't wearing a mask and coughs and splutters in your face then it doesn't matter whether it took 1 second or 15minutes.

True enough.

 

[Rosco]

 

[StevieM]

So the lockdown worked in Europe but some of the restrictions shouldn’t have been eased in July, is probably what I take from that.

It’s now too late for a lockdown to get numbers under control by Christmas as the numbers are so high.

If temperature has a part to play in this - even if it’s just colder weather pushing people inside into poorly ventilated spaces where the virus is more likely to spread - Europe is facing a huge problem.

The US - the numbers might spike up sharply from that point as well.

 

[StevieM]

That's not really what I mean.

The 15 minute thing is an estimate. It's not like you spend 14 minutes with someone and there's zero chance, and 15 minutes is 100%. 15 minutes is where the percentage likelihood goes above something, let's just assume 50% likely of passing it on. At 10 minutes it's maybe 20%, at 1 minute it's maybe 1%.

So, lots of short interactions with infected people, will increase your chances of getting it. Which is pretty intuitive.

The original question was, does the actions of others impact the risk of you getting it. If their actions increase their likelihood, then it will obviously increase yours.

To use the R value example, without restrictions, this has an R of about 3.0. Meaning that each person will, on average infect 3 people, that rolls into approx 59,000 people in 10 days. For reference, common flu has a, without restrictions, R of about 1.3, which after 10 days means one person infects 14 people
Wiith restrictions, we get Covid down to 1.0 or below, so it's either stable or regressing depending on that number. If people don't follow restrictions, that number can obviously explode and affects everyone's chances of getting it.

I think the R rate can be misleading because it is just an average.

Many people are getting it but not infecting others because of the part environmental factors play in transmission.

You could have 1 infected person walking around the streets of London on a busy weekend and as long as they don’t cough or splutter in your face, it doesn’t matter - there’s less chance of an outbreak.

However you go and sit in a packed poorly ventilated pub and 1 infected person coughs and splutters away by themselves in the corner and you’ve got a much higher chance of a clustered outbreak happening.

So - you can protect yourself on the street by staying away from people, wearing a mask help a little - it’s probably not going to make that much of a difference, but neither will it do any harm.

You can protect yourself by not going to the pub - but social distancing is going to be harder, you won’t be wearing a mask and you can not mitigate in the same way for someone else entering that environment who is infected. Heck, they might even be asymptomatic and don’t even know the have it.

I think there’s a case in S Korea where one infected person attended an indoor religious rally, or something like that, and created a 20,000 person cluster.

 

[MomoWASright]

So the lockdown worked in Europe but some of the restrictions shouldn’t have been eased in July, is probably what I take from that.

It’s now too late for a lockdown to get numbers under control by Christmas as the numbers are so high.

If temperature has a part to play in this - even if it’s just colder weather pushing people inside into poorly ventilated spaces where the virus is more likely to spread - Europe is facing a huge problem.

The US - the numbers might spike up sharply from that point as well.

Christmas is fucked. The second it started rising education should’ve been scrapped. Fucking virus spreaders.

 

[peterhague]

Is there anything meaningful to be drawn from Sweden's continuing near zero daily death numbers? They've been like that for about 10 weeks now.

Cases there started to rise about a month ago so it'll be interesting to see whether deaths eventually follow. It could just be that they're now properly shielding care homes. I dunno, it's definitely something to keep an eye on.

 

[StevieM]

Hurrah.

From midnight I can travel 25kms, stay outside longer than 2 hours, play tennis or golf and even swim in an outdoor pool.

Another 2 weeks and pubs will be allowed 20 people inside with 50 in outside areas.

 

[Halmeister]

What happens when things open up properly? Won't the numbers just go up again?

 

[dantes]

What happens when things open up properly? Won't the numbers just go up again?

It depends on how good you are and how fast you act. If 100 people still have it upon opening up, and it doubles every day, then 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200, 6400 have it by the end of the week. If you can cope with tracing and isolating 6000 people a week, or you can get on the case in less than a week, then you can keep the numbers stable. If you can't trace shit, and it takes you two weeks to even realise a number is going up because your scientific advisors were sick the day that they taught arithmetic in school, then you're screwed.

 

[StevieM]

What happens when things open up properly? Won't the numbers just go up again?

Not necessarily.

Victoria is the only state to have suffered a second lockdown- so all other states have opened business (albeit with restrictions) and been able to maintain low numbers.

That’s been achieved by a mixture of social distancing, easy access to and quick results from testing, a solid track and trace system to contain clusters, limiting interstate travel, limiting international travel and requiring 2 week quarantine to anyone coming in.

NZ’ers have just been allowed to fly to Sydney - but not directly to other states - creating a travel bubble with a country with few active cases.

These figure are from today I think.

 

[warnerles]

Not necessarily.

Victoria is the only state to have suffered a second lockdown- so all other states have opened business (albeit with restrictions) and been able to maintain low numbers.

That’s been achieved by a mixture of social distancing, easy access to and quick results from testing, a solid track and trace system to contain clusters, limiting interstate travel, limiting international travel and requiring 2 week quarantine to anyone coming in.

NZ’ers have just been allowed to fly to Sydney - but not directly to other states - creating a travel bubble with a country with few active cases.

These figure are from today I think.

View attachment 1754

God, there’s always one.

 

[The Nomad]

Not necessarily.

Victoria is the only state to have suffered a second lockdown- so all other states have opened business (albeit with restrictions) and been able to maintain low numbers.

That’s been achieved by a mixture of social distancing, easy access to and quick results from testing, a solid track and trace system to contain clusters, limiting interstate travel, limiting international travel and requiring 2 week quarantine to anyone coming in.

NZ’ers have just been allowed to fly to Sydney - but not directly to other states - creating a travel bubble with a country with few active cases.

These figure are from today I think.

View attachment 1754

That 1 will become 2... 2 will become 4..

It's too early man.. tooooooooo early!!

 

[MomoWASright]

Michael Gove on Mayors getting involved in the tier system

[article]“Instead of press conferences and posturing, what we need is action to save people’s lives.”[/article]

No, you absolute cretin, we needed an effective track and trace system since the summer when numbers were low to save people’s lives. Instead, your lot boxed off your mates and robbed from the people of this country simultaneously sending them to their death beds.

 

[Atlas]

Michael Gove on Mayors getting involved in the tier system

[article]“Instead of press conferences and posturing, what we need is action to save people’s lives.”[/article]

No, you absolute cretin, we needed an effective track and trace system since the summer when numbers were low to save people’s lives. Instead, your lot boxed off your mates and robbed from the people of this country simultaneously sending them to their death beds.

I think it's a real struggle to figure which of the current crop of politicians I dislike the most.

Hancock
Patel
Johnson
Raab
Mogg
Francois

Ooh man that list is lengthy... But Gove is absolutely very close to the top of that list.

 

[darkstarexodus]

We were fortunate in Manitoba with a low case count on the first wave. After a brief lockdown things opened up and were back to near-normal and then everything fell apart. We are rivalling some of our neighboring American states for case counts now and government is completely shutting the bed. Testing and tracing resources are inadequate. Looks like we are progressing back towards lockdown now.

I'm away from home working in a rural community until Xmas though so mostly passing me by.

 

[The Nomad]

I think it's a real struggle to figure which of the current crop of politicians I dislike the most.

Hancock
Patel
Johnson
Raab
Mogg
Francois

Ooh man that list is lengthy... But Gove is absolutely very close to the top of that list.

Surely Hancock is top? He's in a stratosphere of his own on my list.

 

[The Nomad]

Manchester being forced into lockdown.. wouldn't accept the same deal fat joe took. Don't know the ins and outs. I thought it would be done on 'per head' so not sure why Manchester thought they deserved more?

 

[Aidan O' Neill]

Manchester being forced into lockdown.. wouldn't accept the same deal fat joe took. Don't know the ins and outs. I thought it would be done on 'per head' so not sure why Manchester thought they deserved more?

Doesn't seem they thought 'they' deserved more. Seems like they thought everyone did but they pushed back a bit.

 

[MomoWASright]

Didn’t they ask for evidence that the conditions that were being placed actually would impact the infection rate?

 

[dantes]

Didn’t they ask for evidence that the conditions that were being placed actually would impact the infection rate?

Think they asked for the scientific advice the government refer to in passing now and again to be disclosed. A reasonable rhetorical request.

 

[StevieM]

Think they asked for the scientific advice the government refer to in passing now and again to be disclosed. A reasonable rhetorical request.

I though part if the problem is that the Labour Party are asking the Government to follow the advice of its own Scientific Advisory Group, but the Government is basically trying to avoid its own advice in order to have this confusing half-arsed thing they seem to want to introduce instead.

Besides haven’t they got to make sure their mates have time to set up new companies to be awarded tender-free contracts to squirrel away all the public money - rather than it actually being used to support the people and businesses that need it.

 

[StevieM]

Although.... let’s face it - if anywhere was going to have a large amount of self-entitled pricks that expect to be given more money than anyone else, that this is all a conspiracy against them and that the world is against them while denying them what’s rightfully theirs - Manchester is a dead cert.

 

[dantes]

The government just want to transfer money to their paedophile friends. Whilst they work on that, they have to occasionally make up and chat shit about the fictional work they are doing to prevent people dying.

Manchester are merely pissed off that the fictional work will cost them more jobs and lives. They'd rather just point out it's fictional and not suffer for the sole reason that pig fucking nonces need a cover story to make it appear they are actually governing, rather than making bank transfers to purchase more pigs.

 

[The Nomad]

The government just want to transfer money to their paedophile friends. Whilst they work on that, they have to occasionally make up and chat shit about the fictional work they are doing to prevent people dying.

Manchester are merely pissed off that the fictional work will cost them more jobs and lives. They'd rather just point out it's fictional and not suffer for the sole reason that pig fucking nonces need a cover story to make it appear they are actually governing, rather than making bank transfers to purchase more pigs.

Now if Burnham actually said that word for word, I'd probably want him to be the next PM.

 

[StevieM]

DANTES FOR PM!!!!!

It starts here.

I’m in.

Of course - I’m in Australia - so it’s a spectator sport for me.

Can I do a postal vote?

Without being the electoral fraudster his hero reckons I’ll be?

 

[Woland]

https://www.thesocial.com/bullshit-john-crump/

 

[StevieM]

Today Melbourne posted ZERO new cases and ZERO deaths, with a rolling fortnightly average of 3.6 new daily cases per 4.9 million people and a total of 7 cases of unknown source.

We’re still in lockdown.

I’m beginning to feel like Yoda did when he realised his “exile” to Degobah wasn’t going to be “for a few months till things calmed down with the senate”.

Starting to look and move like him too.