• You may have to login or register before you can post and view our exclusive members only forums.
    To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?

I might be being stupid here, but with a widespread lockdown, aren't you just postponing the damage rather than dealing with it? When you come out of it, cases are going to rise and you're just going to end up being locked down again? It's going to be a perennial case of lockdown, two weeks out, lockdown...

Well - it all depends on how you manage things once you get the numbers down.

Australia is strictly controlling entry to the country - not only by quarantine, but by the actual amount allowed to land.

Perth for example, is only allowing something like 20 people a day in from overseas.

From our perspective over here - I watched on in horror at what happened in Europe after the first lockdown finished - when everyone was given freedom to roam around Europe on holiday - it seemed inevitable that any good work controlling the virus would be undone.

Australia went further and closed borders for interstate travel - Melbourne even further, with the 5km from home restriction and the “ring of steel” to prevent people travelling out of Melbourne to other parts of the state.

Apart from Victoria- every other state has reopened, with restrictions on hospitality - but in a way you can trade.

Test & Trace is in place and there has been no major spikes - all the clusters have been managed.

I mentioned the “K rate” earlier - which is more about how the virus spreads in clusters - so you mitigate against the scenarios that create clusters or “super spreading” events.

Loss of Tourism revenue is offset by people holidaying domestically more.

Stricter protocols in place for ages care, etc - which has to be funded and backed up by government.

The travel industry is ruined- but if other areas of the economy are ticking along - then aid can be focused on the areas that most need it.

I mean, there are geographical reasons why Australia can manage this - but the UK’s approach seems to be to do too little, too late and change direction frequently, all the while making sure that the interest groups key to them get supported.
 
First of all you have to actually get cases down to a manageable number. You can only do that by a very rigorous lockdown, done early enough. Once you fuck this thing up in the beginning, it's MUCH harder to recover from it, because going from tens of thousands of cases a week via lockdown, to the amount that you can feasibly trace, is very difficult, especially if you have no experience with it. The US never bothered trying. The UK did a half assed lockdown, with middling compliance, ended it early to reduce the economic damage, had confused messaging, didn't do track and trace properly, then didn't react to the cases rising again.

It also creates a sentiment that the lockdown was for nothing, or valorizes the braying of a bunch of assholes who worked against public health by being selfish. If it hadn't been done the hospitals would have been overwhelmed, especially early. But leave it bouncing around your country in enough numbers and you are just waiting for a vaccine and keeping deaths down to some number that we can all become numb to since it's a daily drip.
 
Many of the pubs have been focusing on food for delivery.

Some are producing packs with stuff part cooked along with wine etc

I know a cocktail bar that is vac-packing hand made cocktails and boxing them up for home delivery.

Local brewpub is pushing their products into cans for retail.

Might keep them ticking over until we can re-open things.

You considered retraining in Cyber in the interim..?? asking for friend..
 
Not that I really know anything about it, but it also seems to have not worked in loads of countries too, doesn't it?

I'm not defending the government, more just asking whether it's really as effective a policy as some claim. I mean, half of Europe seems to be in a second wave/ lockdown type situation.

There's also the point that track and trace is STILL effectively just a delaying tactic, albeit much more sophisticated and less damaging. And I'd have thought while it's in place it's still pretty hard to get back to the kind of normality that'll ultimately save jobs and businesses.

The really essential point seems to me to be whether we're going to get a vaccine and if so, how quickly. Well that, and whether herd immunity is even possible, given the reinfections.

It hasn't worked at all in Europe.
 
Shame I couldn't make it, it was my turn to volunteer licking the doorknobs in care homes, but it's good to see the kids are totally buying into the govt message.

Fair enough, you can always get your eyes tested another time.
 
Hahahahaha the one crumb of joy to be had in all this is the plight of students, sticking each others swabs down their mouths, being charged £10k under the fake promise of a social life and actual lectures, only to be locked up in their halls with infrequent deliveries of "food" that even your dog wouldn't touch. They've been fucked to god damn tears, it's hilarious. Hopefully they get the message and understand the reality of their place in the higher education sector.

Some of them even had the temerity to ask about refunds or discounts on their tuition fees. Hahahaha bless their poor hearts.
 
Based on what? If lockdowns weren't done in population dense areas, what do you imagine would have happened?

All of the countries in the midst of the second wave.

In Ireland half the people who were identified as close contacts of confirmed cases refused to attend for a test, so track and trace was not effective.
 
Hahahahaha the one crumb of joy to be had in all this is the plight of students, sticking each others swabs down their mouths, being charged £10k under the fake promise of a social life and actual lectures, only to be locked up in their halls with infrequent deliveries of "food" that even your dog wouldn't touch. They've been fucked to god damn tears, it's hilarious. Hopefully they get the message and understand the reality of their place in the higher education sector.

Some of them even had the temerity to ask about refunds or discounts on their tuition fees. Hahahaha bless their poor hearts.

Stress test next week or so with Reading week coming up. Usually an opportunity for students to nip home for a few days.
Wonder how that will go.
 
All of the countries in the midst of the second wave.

In Ireland half the people who were identified as close contacts of confirmed cases refused to attend for a test, so track and trace was not effective.


Right, but I'm saying, you are saying that lockdown is only useful if the end result is Taiwan or New Zealand.

That's a preferable result, however if you aren't limiting movement or doing the things necessary to get there, which would include a massive wartime propaganda effort to get everyone onboard, then it doesn't logically follow that lockdown failed.

If lockdown wasn't done, what do you think would have happened, given rampant community spread?

You'd have more people dying at a time when medical infrastructure was less capable of assisting, and you'd have that happening at the same time as hospitals were way over capacity. Lockdowns still save lives even if further waves happen.
 
Right, but I'm saying, you are saying that lockdown is only useful if the end result is Taiwan or New Zealand.

That's a preferable result, however if you aren't limiting movement or doing the things necessary to get there, which would include a massive wartime propaganda effort to get everyone onboard, then it doesn't logically follow that lockdown failed.

If lockdown wasn't done, what do you think would have happened, given rampant community spread?

You'd have more people dying at a time when medical infrastructure was less capable of assisting, and you'd have that happening at the same time as hospitals were way over capacity. Lockdowns still save lives even if further waves happen.

No I'm saying that half arsed lockdowns and poorly implemented track and trace provide the worst of both worlds.
 
No I'm saying that half arsed lockdowns and poorly implemented track and trace provide the worst of both worlds.

Yeah... but what's the alternative? No lockdown, no nothing?

The real problem is shit government, economy that is too dependant on people going out and buying shit and a population that doesn't have a sense of personal responsibility - worst of all worlds.
 
Stress test next week or so with Reading week coming up. Usually an opportunity for students to nip home for a few days.
Wonder how that will go.

If they had any sense, they'd stay home and use the remainder of their loans to buy bitcoin.
 
isn’t it strange that pubs serving food can stay open? Who would benefit?



Anyone would think that Boris has any friends in the pub industry that also supported Brexit that he could reward.
 
Dr David Nabarro, the WHO's Special Envoy on COVID-19, told The Spectator: "We in the World Health Organisation do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus.

“The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganise, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it.”
 
Dr David Nabarro, the WHO's Special Envoy on COVID-19, told The Spectator: "We in the World Health Organisation do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus.

“The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganise, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we’d rather not do it.”

So what? It ought not be the primary means of controlling the virus, that's pretty uncontroversial. What is more controversial is the inaccute use of this quote by people who won't fucking wear masks.
 
All of the countries in the midst of the second wave.

In Ireland half the people who were identified as close contacts of confirmed cases refused to attend for a test, so track and trace was not effective.

Is that still the case? When they're only tracing about 1/3 of contacts as it is that doesn't bode well.
 
The thing we’re finding is that test & trace relies on full disclosure.

Curtailing the virus means doing the right thing.

We had a cluster in Melbourne that broke out in a butchers in s shopping centre a few weeks back - linked to cleaning staff.

Person living with the infected cleaner, that is a tyre salesman, didn’t isolate after the cleaner tested positive - has a permit to travel outside of Melbourne for work - so headed off.

Stops to have breakfast in a cafe about 50km north of Melbourne - when he not supposed to have a sit in meal - creates infection cluster. Salesman provides details to Test & Trace

2 weeks later - infection cluster gets picked up in a town a further 100km north.

Salesman then admits he attended sites where the new cluster has broken out - hadn’t told Test & Trace - so the virus could have been spreading in the local community for almost 2 weeks.

400+ people are now self isolating with thousands of tests being performed.
 
The thing we’re finding is that test & trace relies on full disclosure.

Curtailing the virus means doing the right thing.

We had a cluster in Melbourne that broke out in a butchers in s shopping centre a few weeks back - linked to cleaning staff.

Person living with the infected cleaner, that is a tyre salesman, didn’t isolate after the cleaner tested positive - has a permit to travel outside of Melbourne for work - so headed off.

Stops to have breakfast in a cafe about 50km north of Melbourne - when he not supposed to have a sit in meal - creates infection cluster. Salesman provides details to Test & Trace

2 weeks later - infection cluster gets picked up in a town a further 100km north.

Salesman then admits he attended sites where the new cluster has broken out - hadn’t told Test & Trace - so the virus could have been spreading in the local community for almost 2 weeks.

400+ people are now self isolating with thousands of tests being performed.

I thought the whole point was to track people's phones? So the disclosure is automatic?
 
The good news for Melbourne though is that the rolling daily average over a fortnight is number under 10 people - so we might see some restrictions being relaxed.

Let me repeat that so it can sink it - residents of Melbourne, population just under 5 million (similar population to Ireland, about 5 times the size of Liverpool) are hoping they might be allowed out for longer than 2 hours and further than 5kms from their front door to visit something other than a food supermarket because the TOTAL AMOUT of new infections is less than 10.

It’s taken almost 3 months to get the numbers down - we went into lockdown as cases started to rise over 200 per day.

Liverpool are reporting more than 400 new cases a day - in a city of under 1 million.

That’s insane.
 
I thought the whole point was to track people's phones? So the disclosure is automatic?

That’s one way of doing it - if everyone downloads an Ap, the Ap works or the Government hacks your phone and keeps tabs on you.

Melbourne was using a paper based system until a few weeks ago.

There’s QR code scanning or registering when you enter a venue, including the supermarkets. The missus has just informed me of this - apparently it’s optional - I had no idea - but it’s more if the venue gets pinged they can hit their list or hand it over to the government.

We just closed most things to avoid that.

My understanding is that the Health Dept that does the test is then responsible for following up to advise the patient what steps to take and to gather info on where they’ve been to pass to Track & Trace people to... I dunno... track down people who have been in the venue.

I mean... I suppose you could go out without your phone or cover it in tinfoil like they do in films.
 
Back
Top Bottom