Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?

[Farkmaster]

I don't understand the information that people are bandying about here. I thought the idea was that the track and trace system was a disaster. With low compliance and ineffective usage of a system, I would have thought that institutional cases are overrepresented, whereas more random community spread, like at a boozer, are going to be underrepresented. Why is the information you have so valid if its collection was such a disaster?

Also, what is the state of mask compliance over there, and is it regionally varied?

 

[Richey]

Anderson used to be the school bollocker at my kids school. That was literally his job. Title was school mentor but he was just there to scare naughty kids. From that to mayor and they wonder why he hasn't got a fucking clue. Rotherham is a nice enough dude but he's been on a building site most of his life. Having dickhead mayors didn't really matter until now.

Just read up a bit on Anderson. It seems like he wanted Rotherham's job at the time but was rejected, and then wanted to be an MP but was rejected for that as well.

Never mind though. When he went from being Leader of Liverpool Council and instead became Mayor of Liverpool he more than doubled his salary overnight for doing literally exactly the same job in every single way, so it's not all doom and gloom.

 

[dantes]

I don't understand the information that people are bandying about here. I thought the idea was that the track and trace system was a disaster. With low compliance and ineffective usage of a system, I would have thought that institutional cases are overrepresented, whereas more random community spread, like at a boozer, are going to be underrepresented. Why is the information you have so valid if its collection was such a disaster?

Also, what is the state of mask compliance over there, and is it regionally varied?

The total number of infections represents every transmission route. When you look at that, nothing much happened after hospitality reopened, then it went through the roof after schools reopened. That leads to a pretty solid conclusion, which you really ought to have reached just by thinking it through instead of letting it happen like a retard then going oh no, woe is us, oh no, look what happened, who knew?

The data the government is using is in their words "salami sliced" into highly specific categories and age ranges. Even if you look at that, despite the data being flawed for the reasons you seem to know but our fucking scientists don't, even then the data still bears out that schools are the problem. That's not convenient, so the government have resorted to looking at the speed of change in those salami sliced numbers rather than the change itself, plotting all sorts of different graphs, fiddling about, doing whatever other data analysis bullshit they did in order to conclude that pubs are bad, schools are good.

 

[dantes]

It's sort of like looking at a football match where you lose 7-2, but then taking the stats from that game, slicing them up into minute by minute, player by player, then concluding that in the 57th minute Adrian's kicking stat was above the national average, give the guy a new contract immediately, we've found our new number 1!!

 

[peterhague]

I don't understand the information that people are bandying about here. I thought the idea was that the track and trace system was a disaster. With low compliance and ineffective usage of a system, I would have thought that institutional cases are overrepresented, whereas more random community spread, like at a boozer, are going to be underrepresented. Why is the information you have so valid if its collection was such a disaster?

Also, what is the state of mask compliance over there, and is it regionally varied?

Where I am in north Lancs compliance is pretty much across the board, it's rare to see anyone in a shop without one. I've heard it's a completely different story in London, though.

 

[Richey]

Where I am in north Lancs compliance is pretty much across the board, it's rare to see anyone in a shop without one. I've heard it's a completely different story in London, though.

I guess it might vary across London. Local to me, everyone wears masks and has done for ages. I was in Central London the other day and everyone was wearing masks in shops, stations etc.

Walking around outside, I have seen more people wearing masks in my area than in Central London, where the streets just look like normal at weekends. To be far, the only rare times when I have a mask on outside is when I have forgotten to take it off.

One variation I have noticed though is the social distancing on pavements and in shops. A few months ago we went to Suffolk, in the town had a rule of one-way pavements, which was obviously annoying. Some areas seem to vary in terms of numbers in shops and insistence on hand sanitiser when you walk in etc. In Central London there is none of that. People aren't really queuing to get into shops, there is no one-way system on the pavements and there isn't really even much in the way of hand sanitser everywhere.

 

[Woland]

Fucking hell. Just looking at the arts council grants. Circus got 365k. They don't even have a venue do they? It's just yousef booking his mates to play in a club in town once a quarter.

 

[Woland]

Officially jealous. I wish I was an art

 

[StevieM]

In Melbourne - we just closed most of the shops, unless you’re buying food or booze.

Some shops do click & collect - where you order online, park in a designated spot outside & they bring whatever you buy out.

Australia Post can’t keep up with home deliveries.

Mask wearing outside your own home (in the 2 hours your allowed out) is compulsory at all times - or you’ll be fined.

You’ll also be fined if you’re more than 5km from home unless you have a work permit or it’s fir care giving / medical reasons.

Victoria Police have banked about AU$20m in fines over the last few months.

It’s taken us 3 months to get the numbers down to where other Australian states are - hopefully we’ll get a relaxation of the rules at the end of the week.

The scary thing is - the UK’s numbers are higher now than we were at our peak.

So it depends what you want in the UK - if you want to keep infections low - you’re only going to achieve that by locking down harder than anything you’ve done before and for longer - and that’s only to get things to a level where test & trace is effective against clustered outbreaks.

What the UK seems to be doing is fannying around again - you can properly shield vulnerable groups and go about life as per normal, while the virus is rampant.

Have they started testing waste water for the virus in the UK yet?

Once you get numbers down to manageable levels, the restrictions on activities that involve enclosed, poorly ventilated, “loud” spaces with people are in close proximity and doing things that could promote droplet contamination - so pubs, clubs, churches, gyms, concerts, big indoor social events, etc

The second wave started in Melbourne because of the Hotel Quarantine disaster, but then spread via religious/social gatherings and then into Aged Care - where it spread like wildfire and most of the deaths occurred. The most recent clusters have been tied to hospitality, healthcare and contract cleaning services - but now we’re talking about clusters of under 10 - it’s much easier to test, trace & isolate those affected.

It’s a pain in the balls though - my money is on the UK being in hard lockdown over Christmas.

You won’t be the only ones.

 

[dantes]

Nah I'm sure it'll be fine, we have Boris at the wheel.

 

[MomoWASright]

I’ve already accepted that I will only see my family over Christmas by standing at the end of their garden.

Work kept asking when I expect to go back into work and I always answered spring 21. I’ll be fucked if I go back in the next 12 months.

We are completely fucked.

 

[MomoWASright]

Nah I'm sure we’ll be dead soon, we have Boris at the wheel.

Fixed

 

[peterhague]

In Melbourne - we just closed most of the shops, unless you’re buying food or booze.

Some shops do click & collect - where you order online, park in a designated spot outside & they bring whatever you buy out.

Australia Post can’t keep up with home deliveries.

Mask wearing outside your own home (in the 2 hours your allowed out) is compulsory at all times - or you’ll be fined.

You’ll also be fined if you’re more than 5km from home unless you have a work permit or it’s fir care giving / medical reasons.

Victoria Police have banked about AU$20m in fines over the last few months.

It’s taken us 3 months to get the numbers down to where other Australian states are - hopefully we’ll get a relaxation of the rules at the end of the week.

The scary thing is - the UK’s numbers are higher now than we were at our peak.

So it depends what you want in the UK - if you want to keep infections low - you’re only going to achieve that by locking down harder than anything you’ve done before and for longer - and that’s only to get things to a level where test & trace is effective against clustered outbreaks.

What the UK seems to be doing is fannying around again - you can properly shield vulnerable groups and go about life as per normal, while the virus is rampant.

Have they started testing waste water for the virus in the UK yet?

Once you get numbers down to manageable levels, the restrictions on activities that involve enclosed, poorly ventilated, “loud” spaces with people are in close proximity and doing things that could promote droplet contamination - so pubs, clubs, churches, gyms, concerts, big indoor social events, etc

The second wave started in Melbourne because of the Hotel Quarantine disaster, but then spread via religious/social gatherings and then into Aged Care - where it spread like wildfire and most of the deaths occurred. The most recent clusters have been tied to hospitality, healthcare and contract cleaning services - but now we’re talking about clusters of under 10 - it’s much easier to test, trace & isolate those affected.

It’s a pain in the balls though - my money is on the UK being in hard lockdown over Christmas.

You won’t be the only ones.

I keep going back and forth on what's the best approach, and then I read something like this and every fibre of me is just like 'this is fucking mental'.

You have to wear a mask outdoors? Even if you're by yourself?

 

[StevieM]

I keep going back and forth on what's the best approach, and then I read something like this and every fibre of me is just like 'this is fucking mental'.

You have to wear a mask outdoors? Even if you're by yourself?

Until last week one person per household was allowed out to do the shopping at the supermarket.

So unless you were out doing your one hour of Permitted exercise (which you could do as a household) - you were on your own.

You can now be out for 2 hours - the missus and I went to the Supermarket together for the first time in months

We had an 9pm curfew until a few weeks ago - as in - you weren’t allowed out after 9pm - so any business that we’re open we’re closing at 8pm - supermarkets, etc

And yes... you’re expected to wear your mask if you take the dog out for a walk round your own neighbourhood.

Not that I have a dog and the cat wouldn’t seen dead dragging me round at the end of a lead.

I once put the bins out after 9pm without wearing a mask - pushed the boundaries a bit there.

The Missus can’t see her best mate, our family because they live more than 5km away.

But.... we’re down from a peak of 700+ new cases a day to a 2 week average of about 12 - with most from known sources.

800+ people dead - but it’s down to 1 or 2 a day and I believe there’s no-one in Intensive Care with COVID.

Melbourne had less new cases than Sydney today - which isn’t in lockdown - has restrictions in place - but you can still go to the pub.

If Australia maintains the 2 week quarantine of people coming into the country and we continue to shut down clustered outbreaks quickly while operating under the new norm - then it’ll have been worth it.

Probably.

 

[Atlas]

How have people taken to it generally then? Are most compliant.

And is there any financial support?
Like businesses must be closing down and people completely out of pocket.
Plus the whole issue of mental health of being stuck around at home all day every day.

I'm mentally prepared for the full lockdown here. Can see the whole country getting to tier 3 within the next 6 weeks

 

[Richey]

How have people taken to it generally then? Are most compliant.

And is there any financial support?
Like businesses must be closing down and people completely out of pocket.
Plus the whole issue of mental health of being stuck around at home all day every day.

I'm mentally prepared for the full lockdown here. Can see the whole country getting to tier 3 within the next 6 weeks

I was about to ask a similar question! If we had that kind of lockdown over here people would have got massively fed up with it by now and politicians and the media would have been arguing about the rights and wrongs of it.

The economy must have taken one hell of a hit too.

 

[FoxForceFive]

They could just scrap HS2 here & give everyone 100% of the salaries.

A high speed rail link between London & Birmingham was of so little benefit to start with, & now so many work remotely it's even more of a waste of an absurd amount of cash.

 

[dantes]

They could just scrap HS2 here & give everyone 100% of the salaries.

A high speed rail link between London & Birmingham was of so little benefit to start with, & now so many work remotely it's even more of a waste of an absurd amount of cash.

It's not a waste of cash. It's going to private contractors, the railway is just a side issue and missing the point of those contracts.

 

[peterhague]

They could just scrap HS2 here & give everyone 100% of the salaries.

A high speed rail link between London & Birmingham was of so little benefit to start with, & now so many work remotely it's even more of a waste of an absurd amount of cash.

That is a very good idea.

 

[MomoWASright]

It's not a waste of cash. It's going to private contractors, the railway is just a side issue and missing the point of those contracts.

Don’t both have the same effect? It’s just one doesn’t rip through countryside and makes you actually reach Birmingham quicker.

 

[Atlas]

They could just scrap HS2 here & give everyone 100% of the salaries.

A high speed rail link between London & Birmingham was of so little benefit to start with, & now so many work remotely it's even more of a waste of an absurd amount of cash.

I'm feeling this post, especially now that everyone meets online nowadays anyway.

Create some proper high speed internet across the country
Stop spaffing billions on essentials projects to ya mates and other lame private orgs.

 

[Halmeister]

I might be being stupid here, but with a widespread lockdown, aren't you just postponing the damage rather than dealing with it? When you come out of it, cases are going to rise and you're just going to end up being locked down again? It's going to be a perennial case of lockdown, two weeks out, lockdown...

 

[FoxForceFive]

I might be being stupid here, but with a widespread lockdown, aren't you just postponing the damage rather than dealing with it? When you come out of it, cases are going to rise and you're just going to end up being locked down again? It's going to be a perennial case of lockdown, two weeks out, lockdown...

Yep.

The idea was lockdown, create track & trace & proper testing facilities, then when you reopen & cases start appearing you shut them down through contact tracing & self isolation.

It's worked in loads of country's, all those ones where they didn't give billions to people to do fuck all with.

Corrected idiotic typo.

 

[peterhague]

Yep.

The idea was lockdown, create track & trace & proper testing facilities, then when you reopen & cases start appearing you shut them down through contact tracing & self isolation.

It's worked in loads of country's, all those ones wear they didn't give billions to people to do fuck all with.

Not that I really know anything about it, but it also seems to have not worked in loads of countries too, doesn't it?

I'm not defending the government, more just asking whether it's really as effective a policy as some claim. I mean, half of Europe seems to be in a second wave/ lockdown type situation.

There's also the point that track and trace is STILL effectively just a delaying tactic, albeit much more sophisticated and less damaging. And I'd have thought while it's in place it's still pretty hard to get back to the kind of normality that'll ultimately save jobs and businesses.

The really essential point seems to me to be whether we're going to get a vaccine and if so, how quickly. Well that, and whether herd immunity is even possible, given the reinfections.

 

[StevieM]

Few things -

There is support for businesses closed and people furloughed - whether it’s enough, I don’t know.

This is where it’s hard for me to give any insight - because COVID hasn’t impacted the Missus and I negatively, financially - she’s a Paramedic and I can work from home with ease.

The company I work for - is booming - my own little section is trading at double last year.

So, I’m not experiencing economic hardship, luckily.

The Suppliers I deal with - some are coping, some are barely surviving, a couple have gone under, some are doing well.

It’s focused people to re-evaluate their business models, I guess and play in different areas than they usually do.

 

[peterhague]

I'm not sure there's any amount of focus that can save a business dependent on people going out and enjoying themselves when everyone's stuck inside.

 

[StevieM]

Mental health - it’s a double edged sword.

Some people are going nuts.

Some people are enjoying the chance to work from home and spend more time with their family - those with young kids particularly.

Some lessening of restrictions needs to happen soon because it’s getting harder and harder to comply for, it seems, most people.

Again... my own situation- all I’m avoiding is a 25km, 45 min trip each way, 5 days a week - we barely do during the week any way.

The missus does shift work - so half the time we don’t do much at weekends.

Most of the things I like doing at weekends involves going to wine & beer festivals - so I’ve brought them to me every weekend instead (see beer taps Thread).

I also have no family in Australia and decades of hospitality work has well prepared me for not seeing friends on a regular basis.

 

[StevieM]

I'm not sure there's any amount of focus that can save a business dependent on people going out and enjoying themselves when everyone's stuck inside.

Many of the pubs have been focusing on food for delivery.

Some are producing packs with stuff part cooked along with wine etc

I know a cocktail bar that is vac-packing hand made cocktails and boxing them up for home delivery.

Local brewpub is pushing their products into cans for retail.

Might keep them ticking over until we can re-open things.

 

[peterhague]

Many of the pubs have been focusing on food for delivery.

Some are producing packs with stuff part cooked along with wine etc

I know a cocktail bar that is vac-packing hand made cocktails and boxing them up for home delivery.

Local brewpub is pushing their products into cans for retail.

Might keep them ticking over until we can re-open things.

Let's hope.

 

[StevieM]

Let's hope.

Yeah - I’m pretty thankful I got out of hospitality just over a year ago.

I mean, the basic principle is - if you can’t have the people come to you - you take yourself to the people.

I read somewhere that in Singapore people are paying to get Singapore Airlines Business class packs delivered to their house (and also paying to sit on a grounded plane and get served food from the first class menu).

In Melbourne - if you can only service a 5kms radius for pickup and delivery - there are opportunities to ramp up home deliveries (most pubs had started to go on to Uber Eats anyway).

It’s different in all states - but many pubs here have a licence that allows them to sell booze for consumption “off premise” - Many don’t use it, but they can effectively re-set themselves to trade in that way while they can’t have customers.

It’s not ideal - but I think that’s where they can then claim support from Government to keep people in employment.