And... if it does mutate and you can get it twice, this is life forever.
Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?
- Thread starter manwithnoname
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I’d rather trust a Greggs app to handle my data better than the track and trace app.
I think it's definitely questioned just how effective immunity by antibodies currently is, but in principle you could achieve it through natural infection.
They should just put everyone with Covid into a nightingale hospital, absolutely everyone who tests positive. The less sick ones can take care of the really sick ones and if someone dies then they can put the bodies into a furnace to be burnt to produce electricity to keep the lights on. Have it all live-streamed and the bookies can offer odds on who goes next. It'll be good for the environment and the economy, it'll be a win-win.
What's going on with China then? Are they fudging the numbers? Have they defeated the virus? Or they just further down the road and we'll follow behind? Do they have a secret vaccine they're not telling everyone about? Are we grossly inflating the numbers over here? Is it a combination of some of the above? Is it something else?
Either way, something doesn't add up.
Either way, something doesn't add up.
I've been keeping an eye on the university numbers, they are starting to get out of control in a few places.
Northumberland/Newcastle are over 1000 as in Manchester Uni.
[article]Newcastle University said 1,003 students and 12 members of staff were confirmed to have Covid-19 in the past week, compared with 94 last Friday.
There were also 619 new cases at Northumbria University, which last week said 770 people had contracted the illness since mid-September[/article].
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-54468127
But why are we not seeing similar numbers amongst school populations? is it not reported as much? are younger ones not getting the tests done as much etc?
Northumberland/Newcastle are over 1000 as in Manchester Uni.
[article]Newcastle University said 1,003 students and 12 members of staff were confirmed to have Covid-19 in the past week, compared with 94 last Friday.
There were also 619 new cases at Northumbria University, which last week said 770 people had contracted the illness since mid-September[/article].
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-54468127
But why are we not seeing similar numbers amongst school populations? is it not reported as much? are younger ones not getting the tests done as much etc?
No idea how accurate estimates are, but I've seen natural herd immunity needing 50% infection, which would mean about 500k - 2m deaths in the US, and that's only if it doesn't mutate. It's a risky game.
But, honestly no idea what can be done, besides hoping that they get the quickest vaccine ever produced and confirmed, which doesn't feel like a great hope either.
The scientific opinion I've heard seems quite bullish about that actually. One can't be sure obv.but I'd like to think the medics and virologists concerned wouldn't be giving hostages to fortune over this if they didn't really think there was reason for optimism.
Well the idea would be to obtain it via younger people, among whom the virus is much less deadly.
I think the survival rate for under 50s averages roughly at 99.985%. I think, don't quote me.
If we say that under 50s are roughly half the population, then you'd need 0.25x 65m in the UK to catch it to achieve herd immunity among THAT population only, which is 16.25m people. The deaths under 50 assuming the above survival rate would therefore be around 2,500.
Now obviously that's all very 'back of a fag packet' and just theoretical, but that's the basic thinking around using the young to achieve immunity while you lock over 70s (or whatever) up for a couple of months (or whatever).
School kids don't tend to get pissed/stoned and spent hours on end in the same small dormitories.
Clearly you've not heard about my son's primary school.
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That'll be an exception rather than a rule..
Day 1,000,345,234 of hard lockdown in Victoria. We have a 14 day rolling average of <10 cases a day 🙁
Victoria has less cases than the White House.
Sooo, this closing hospitality thing in the UK is clearly bollocks, I think it's a way of getting people adjusted to lockdown again by taking away 90% of their free time again.
They keep saying 30% of cases come from hospitality. That's an alleged quote from David whittty in a leak.
PHE published their figures two days ago, which I've attached, which show them at just 4%, & education at 36%.
There's also a pie chart, created by someone else, using those same PHE figures.
I'll link the document itself too, for those of you who are sceptical:
https://t.co/8WKYvWC3G8
Now the fact this document is in the public domain, verified, yet the press keep reporting this 30% unverified figure to back up the closures, is what bothers me as much as anything else.
They keep saying 30% of cases come from hospitality. That's an alleged quote from David whittty in a leak.
PHE published their figures two days ago, which I've attached, which show them at just 4%, & education at 36%.
There's also a pie chart, created by someone else, using those same PHE figures.
I'll link the document itself too, for those of you who are sceptical:
https://t.co/8WKYvWC3G8
Now the fact this document is in the public domain, verified, yet the press keep reporting this 30% unverified figure to back up the closures, is what bothers me as much as anything else.
*bites tongue and tries not to go on rant about them being cunts and wanting to control us*
My understanding of the figures that talk about 30% of infections being from hospitality is that this was 30% of people under 30. The % for all ages was lower. Not as low as 4% of course, but also, the information that was used there was excluding educational settings, excluding those living in care homes, excluding patients in hospitals and excluding prisoners.
The reason for this I assume is that the government has doesn’t wish to apply restrictions to these areas, and the presentation that is being quoted is looking at areas of the community that might be considered for restrictions. It doesn’t wish to close schools, people in care homes and hospitals obviously need to be in hospitals and care homes and most people in prison need to remain in prison.
There are obvious issues with it beyond that. I am not saying it is perfect by any means. Apart from anything else, I would guess that track and trace usage is higher in pubs and restaurants than it is in shops.
whether it is getting people slowly used to the idea of lockdown, I don’t know. I do know that the government desperately doesn’t want to do a full lockdown. There are some individuals in government who are extremely strongly against it, which is why the compromise of the 10pm closures came in.
One thing that did occur to me though was that cutting down on people drinking might also be a way to try to free up hospital capacity. As things stand, bed capacity in the NHS is not so bad. It is way, way below the 19000 Covid cases in hospitals that were there during the first peak. When the first wave ended though, bed occupancy was extremely low for a little while, as NHS trusts had done all that they could to keep people out of hospital. That is a little easier in the Spring and Summer months. Given the number of admissions that are alcohol related in normal times, I wonder if stopping people from drinking is partly to remove many of those admissions.
The reason for this I assume is that the government has doesn’t wish to apply restrictions to these areas, and the presentation that is being quoted is looking at areas of the community that might be considered for restrictions. It doesn’t wish to close schools, people in care homes and hospitals obviously need to be in hospitals and care homes and most people in prison need to remain in prison.
There are obvious issues with it beyond that. I am not saying it is perfect by any means. Apart from anything else, I would guess that track and trace usage is higher in pubs and restaurants than it is in shops.
whether it is getting people slowly used to the idea of lockdown, I don’t know. I do know that the government desperately doesn’t want to do a full lockdown. There are some individuals in government who are extremely strongly against it, which is why the compromise of the 10pm closures came in.
One thing that did occur to me though was that cutting down on people drinking might also be a way to try to free up hospital capacity. As things stand, bed capacity in the NHS is not so bad. It is way, way below the 19000 Covid cases in hospitals that were there during the first peak. When the first wave ended though, bed occupancy was extremely low for a little while, as NHS trusts had done all that they could to keep people out of hospital. That is a little easier in the Spring and Summer months. Given the number of admissions that are alcohol related in normal times, I wonder if stopping people from drinking is partly to remove many of those admissions.
Yeah - but if the way the virus spreads mostly in confined places, with poor ventilation, where people from different suburbs congregate and spend time talking (loudly) to each other while not wearing masks - then pubs are literally the worst place to be in while this virus is out there.
Pubs don’t really work if you limit numbers and introduce social distancing.
Restaurants are different.
The plan in Australia is to encourage outdoor dining and drinking - which would be fine in summer.
I’ve read a few articles that suggest the K number is what we should be focusing on rather than the R number.
Pubs don’t really work if you limit numbers and introduce social distancing.
Restaurants are different.
The plan in Australia is to encourage outdoor dining and drinking - which would be fine in summer.
I’ve read a few articles that suggest the K number is what we should be focusing on rather than the R number.
Nothing to see here. Just carry on.
It should be astonishing that the press aren't reporting it, however, it really isn't.
That's the worst thing.
Or maybe thee second worst, the worst is I'm not surprised by it, or by this...
That's the worst thing.
Or maybe thee second worst, the worst is I'm not surprised by it, or by this...
I’m working with a FinTech and you should’ve seen the hoops I had to go through selecting them for a paltry £50k. This has to be criminal.