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Chinese "Devil Virus" - anyone worried?

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Yeah, as far as I understand it herd immunity is the only solution.

Of course nobody likes to explicitly talk in terms of how many deaths are "worth" suffering, but it's still the inevitable question.

I think people under 40 (as long as they can avoid more vulnerable people) should be told to go back to their normal routine. Effectively they should be encouraged to spread the virus among themselves. Try it for a couple of weeks and see what happens.

Then gradually extend to older people.

I just don't think the total lockdown is achieving anything now, other than delaying the inevitable.
 
In case you haven't accepted it yet, we're fucked, nothing can change that now. The actual important discussion was whether delaying the lock down because you wanted the infection to spread widely enough to result in herd immunity, might not have been the best idea after all. But what do I know compared to the brilliant captain pantsdown? I'm only the greatest living mind on the planet, which is now at risk of death thanks to captain galactically stupid over at imperial college.
 
peterhague said:
Yeah, as far as I understand it herd immunity is the only solution.

Of course nobody likes to explicitly talk in terms of how many deaths are "worth" suffering, but it's still the inevitable question.

I think people under 40 (as long as they can avoid more vulnerable people) should be told to go back to their normal routine. Effectively they should be encouraged to spread the virus among themselves. Try it for a couple of weeks and see what happens.

Then gradually extend to older people.

I just don't think the total lockdown is achieving anything now, other than delaying the inevitable.
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[article]
Scientists say a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus could be more contagious than original

Scientists have identified a new strain of the coronavirus that has become dominant worldwide and appears to be more contagious than the versions that spread in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a new study led by scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory.
The new strain appeared in February in Europe, migrated quickly to the East Coast of the United States and has been the dominant strain across the world since mid-March, the scientists wrote. In addition to spreading faster, it may make people vulnerable to a second infection after a first bout with the disease, the report warned.
The 33-page report was posted Thursday on BioRxiv, a website that researchers use to share their work before it is peer-reviewed, an effort to speed up collaborations with scientists working on COVID-19 vaccines or treatments. That research has been largely based on the genetic sequence of earlier strains and might not be effective against the new one.

https://www.latimes.com/california/...rus-has-emerged-more-contagious-than-original
[/article]

Yeah, what can possibly go wrong with a herd immunity solution? After all, human-pangolin biology is barely any different from the three input factor nodes put into the pandemic simulation model.
 
That clickbait is on about what we've been dealing with for three months Dantes. Check your fake news dude
 
Gerry_A_Trick said:
Isn't a vaccine and/or a cure another solution than herd immunity?
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Exactly. Vaccine, cure, or containment (not possible worldwide, but still possible in individual countries with heavy travel restrictions). Herd immunity might not be a solution at all as it's not yet clear whether immunity to re-infection exists and if it does, how long it lasts.
 
So, the best thing to do is make sure as few people die before that vaccine is ready, which is best done by reducing transmission rates, which is best done by effective lockdown measures.
 
rurikbird said:
You are right, the herd immunity is usually referred to in the context of a vaccine. Going for it by allowing everyone to contract the actual deadly disease, is kind of unheard of.
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That's actually the narrative behind it, that once enough of the population have it, there'll be an immunity (which is debatable in itself, as it dependant on only being able to catch it once). Why not call it developing a vaccine, which is something everyone understands, it seems weird to start calling it herd immunity, when in fact it's a vaccine.
 
Herd immunity is the term that has been used for the general population. This usually only happens when there's a vaccine for something and it means that the 95% of people who are vaccinated for something help protect those of us who for medical terms can't recieve the vaccine for a particular disease. This was the reason why there hadn't been any cases of measles in the UK for ages, until the anti-vax crowd stopped vaccinations and it came back.
 
Gerry_A_Trick said:
That's actually the narrative behind it, that once enough of the population have it, there'll be an immunity (which is debatable in itself, as it dependant on only being able to catch it once). Why not call it developing a vaccine, which is something everyone understands, it seems weird to start calling it herd immunity, when in fact it's a vaccine.
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Because the anti-vaxxers will increase their membership by several orders of magnitude as soon as the nature of the vaccine was explained.
 
dantes said:
Because the anti-vaxxers will increase their membership by several orders of magnitude as soon as the nature of the vaccine was explained.
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Yeah, vaccine is "unnatural" and can have harmful side-effects for a certain % of people. Whereas the actual virus is 100% natural. Let's all get immunized the natural way!
 
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Athens said:
Herd immunity is the term that has been used for the general population. This usually only happens when there's a vaccine for something and it means that the 95% of people who are vaccinated for something help protect those of us who for medical terms can't recieve the vaccine for a particular disease. This was the reason why there hadn't been any cases of measles in the UK for ages, until the anti-vax crowd stopped vaccinations and it came back.
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I'm pretty sure when people talk about herd immunity in this case it just refers to people having caught it in large numbers and therefore it being unable to spread among the general population.

Obviously a vaccine is one route to herd immunity.

But it doesn't make any sense that people would be talking about herd immunity as a potential strategy (say, as opposed to lockdown) if all they meant was delivering a vaccine.

Obviously a vaccine is the ideal solution. It would be bizarre to talk about it in the context of competing, highly flawed, strategies.
 
Gerry_A_Trick said:
So, the best thing to do is make sure as few people die before that vaccine is ready, which is best done by reducing transmission rates, which is best done by effective lockdown measures.
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That's, er, pretty fucking debatable.

Fuck only knows what state we could be in after a year long depression.

I don't 'just' mean the economy, either. The levels of austerity that could follow that would be genuinely grim.

Thousands would be bound to die just from cuts to the health service alone.
 
peterhague said:
I'm pretty sure when people talk about herd immunity in this case it just refers to people having caught it in large numbers and therefore it being unable to spread among the general population.

Obviously a vaccine is one route to herd immunity.

But it doesn't make any sense that people would be talking about herd immunity as a potential strategy (say, as opposed to lockdown) if all they meant was delivering a vaccine.

Obviously a vaccine is the ideal solution. It would be bizarre to talk about it in the context of competing, highly flawed, strategies.
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Yeah, most people seem to think exactly that.

I have no idea why though, but I'm no expert.
 
rurikbird said:
Exactly. Vaccine, cure, or containment (not possible worldwide, but still possible in individual countries with heavy travel restrictions). Herd immunity might not be a solution at all as it's not yet clear whether immunity to re-infection exists and if it does, how long it lasts.
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Herd immunity for the UK would mean near enough 40 million people (based on the 60% supposedly required for Herd Immunity) having either been infected or being asymptomatic. This would then also require that there is no introduction from overseas (as if) and that the virus didn't mutate (again as if - they supposedly mutate hundreds of times a year).

There are, by the way, 3 distinct versions of the CV-19 already (named A, B and & C type). This shows that Italy, for example, has Type C (the only country in Europe where this is dominant) and that can ony have come from Singapore (obviously also Type C, China has A & B).

We don't have Herd Immunity to another respiratory virus, the common flu, which has been around more than long enough to develop one - if such as thing was even possible. It sounds more than unfeasible and so a vaccine that needs updating annually (such as that for Flu) seems to be the only real option.
 
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keniget said:
There was a good article on theregister about it... basically sounds like it's not a viable solution technically and if you do commit to using it, they can use / sell your data.

So that's a definite no download for me.
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There's not a fucking chance I install it, it's ineffective, badly designed, will almost certainly destroy your battery (I suspect the workaround they speak of to use Bluetooth will be to wake the device up at regular intervals based upon movement & other inputs) & the company that designed it are almost impossible to get real & solid information on, but what you can find out flashes massive warning signs.

On top of that they've already said they will store your data & it will be shared with organisations other than the NHS.

The alternative, the Google/Apple api, guarantees that won't happen, & actually works. Plus would have been MUCH cheaper to develop.

Actually, this debacle is a good summary for the UK's approach to this whole fucking pandemic.

Too late, massively expensive, will costs thousands of deaths, there's tried & trusted alternatives readily available, but all that will be ignored & the media will tell us how great this all is compared to what those nasty foreigners are doing.
 
Athens said:
Herd immunity is the term that has been used for the general population. This usually only happens when there's a vaccine for something and it means that the 95% of people who are vaccinated for something help protect those of us who for medical terms can't recieve the vaccine for a particular disease. This was the reason why there hadn't been any cases of measles in the UK for ages, until the anti-vax crowd stopped vaccinations and it came back.
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Exactly.
 
peterhague said:
That's, er, pretty fucking debatable.

Fuck only knows what state we could be in after a year long depression.

I don't 'just' mean the economy, either. The levels of austerity that could follow that would be genuinely grim.

Thousands would be bound to die just from cuts to the health service alone.
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Some sort of redistribution of wealth, maybe, to cover a funding shortfall in critical services?

My income hasn’t been affected so far- I kind of expect to have to chip in more via tax at some point.

There are many businesses that have flourished- think I read Bezos’ wealth had increased $15b last month.

There’s enough capital and wealth out there that critical services needed be cut significantly - and I don’t know a discussion on redistributing wealth would be less palatable than what levels of death would be acceptable.
 
Redistribution of wealth plus UBI being implemented would solve the majority of the western worlds problems in a very short period of time.

Sadly that's very unlikely (at least in the UK) cos the general public are utterly selfish dickheads.
 
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