Betting 3% a day challenge 2012

[Pesam]

[quote author=Pesam link=topic=46433.msg1389305#msg1389305 date=1314542092]
£80 Lay Arsenal winning at United to win £10

Bank @ £142 against a target for Monday 30th of £130.
[/quote]

Oops, I thought I was marginally ahead of target but have just slipped behind - Bank at £137 against a target of £138.

 

[danwms]

Ok im sorted to give it a go.

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=danwms link=topic=46433.msg1391596#msg1391596 date=1314802511]
Ok im sorted to give it a go.
[/quote]

Good luck, hopefully should be some decent "certainties" on some of the international games this weekend and Bryndaloo should provide us with some good tips during the rugby world cup.

 

[bryndaloo]

Bank at £19.66.

Handy win on the T20 this evening - pretty simple. Wait for an England wicket to fall, back England. Wait for a few fours to go over the rope, Lay England - Hey Presto, profit!

 

[danwms]

Clean sheet for Holland against San Marino tomorrow?

San Marino have not scored for ages.

 

[Pesam]

Okay, so below I have listed the weekly target for 3% (per day) but i have also listed the weekly target for 1% & 2% also as both still represent a very healthy profit if you can keep winning.

-------------------3%------------------------2%--------------------1%

Starting bank
£100

Week 1-------£123-----------------------£115-----------------£107
Week 2-------£151-----------------------£131-----------------£115
Week 3-------£186-----------------------£152-----------------£123
Week 4-------£228-----------------------£174-----------------£132
Week 5-------£281-----------------------£200-----------------£142
Week 6-------£346-----------------------£230-----------------£152
Week 7-------£426-----------------------£264-----------------£163
Week 8-------£523-----------------------£303-----------------£174
Week 9-------£643-----------------------£348-----------------£187
Week 10------£792----------------------£400------------------£201

Week 50-----£3,111,426------------£102,400-------------£3253

 

[Pesam]

So my target for the end of week 2 i.e. tomorrow is £151 and due to a few days inactivity I am behind on £137.

 

[bryndaloo]

Bank at £20.51 following backing Leigh to score first try in the game against Dewsbury last night.
Stupid, risky bet really and regretted it as soon as I put it on - especially given that I was ahead of target and didn't need to chase the money.

Still, it won, so am currently £2.97 ahead of a target of £17.54.

Need to get to £40.12 by the end of the month to keep on track.

 

[danwms]

[quote author=Pesam link=topic=46433.msg1391492#msg1391492 date=1314794242]

Quite simply, if you start with £10 and win 3% everyday after one year your balance is near enough £500,000. It looks easy enough in principle, after all a bet on United beating Arsenal would have increased your bank by 40%, but eventually you will fall prey to a freak result or two and it's almost impossible to keep up with the target. Last season I got £100 up to about £350 before stumbling (I start with £100 rather than £10 because I get bored easily).

What I am keeping in mind too is that at 2% per day you can still win over £12,000 from a £10 start and even 1% per day will lead to £360+. So my target is 3% per day but if the end of the year I'm up 1% per day on average I'd be thrilled. As things stand I'm still just ahead of the 3% target but it's early days and as I said yesterday I'm quite sure I'm doomed to fail.
[/quote]

Are you aiming to keep up with the target as a result of all bets you make or are you treating this completely separate, i.e. other bets you make do not affect your target for this.

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=danwms link=topic=46433.msg1393489#msg1393489 date=1314976657]
[quote author=Pesam link=topic=46433.msg1391492#msg1391492 date=1314794242]

Quite simply, if you start with £10 and win 3% everyday after one year your balance is near enough £500,000. It looks easy enough in principle, after all a bet on United beating Arsenal would have increased your bank by 40%, but eventually you will fall prey to a freak result or two and it's almost impossible to keep up with the target. Last season I got £100 up to about £350 before stumbling (I start with £100 rather than £10 because I get bored easily).

What I am keeping in mind too is that at 2% per day you can still win over £12,000 from a £10 start and even 1% per day will lead to £360+. So my target is 3% per day but if the end of the year I'm up 1% per day on average I'd be thrilled. As things stand I'm still just ahead of the 3% target but it's early days and as I said yesterday I'm quite sure I'm doomed to fail.
[/quote]

Are you aiming to keep up with the target as a result of all bets you make or are you treating this completely separate, i.e. other bets you make do not affect your target for this.
[/quote]

Completely separate. It's not realistic to expect the 3% challenge to end in success whereas I do expect to make a decent profit on my regular bets as I have done for the last 6 seasons.

 

[danwms]

So if you are only starting with a tenner do you only stake the minimum required to hit your target?

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=danwms link=topic=46433.msg1393499#msg1393499 date=1314977652]
So if you are only starting with a tenner do you only stake the minimum required to hit your target?
[/quote]

No. If you feel really strongly about something you can stick your whole bank on it and try and get ahead of target. For instance, if you stick your entire bank on over 3.5 goals in the Holland game tonight you'd make (if it's succesful) an 11% profit which would put you comfortably ahead of schedule.

 

[Pesam]

£6 lay of Belarus winning at home to Bosnia to win £4.

Also, £30 on over 1.5 goals in the Cyprus v Portugal game to win £7

 

[Pesam]

£2 Gareth Evans 1st goalscorer @ 16

 

[Pesam]

£20 lay of brentford winning at walsall to win £10

 

[Pesam]

£2 on Rob Jones Sheff Wenesday 1st goalscorer @ 48/1

 

[bryndaloo]

[quote author=Pesam link=topic=46433.msg1391636#msg1391636 date=1314805418]
[quote author=danwms link=topic=46433.msg1391596#msg1391596 date=1314802511]
Ok im sorted to give it a go.
[/quote]

Good luck, hopefully should be some decent "certainties" on some of the international games this weekend and Bryndaloo should provide us with some good tips during the rugby world cup.
[/quote]

Got up to £40 by lumping my entire bank on Warrington to beat Wigan last Sunday - I've withdrawn that money now as I'm struggling to find time to keep on top of this now.

As for tips for the RWC:
Argentina are currently around 7.0 to beat England - whilst I don't think they'll beat them, that price is too steep. Back now and lay in play.
Similar for Wales v SA.
Also you can get Wales +13.5 points against SA at around 1.9 - The last three games have had SA winning by 5, 3 and 3 so 13.5 is plenty.

Longer term, back Argentina and Scotland to win the tournament at 290 and 330 respectively and Lay once which ever one qualifies from the group.

But don't blame me if you lose money on these tips!

 

[Pesam]

Ok I resisted the temptation to get overly involved in the International nonsense last week which means that my bank, which should be on £186 by tomorrow, is a paltry £124.

I have a feeling the best course of action tomorrow will be to take the 19% profit on offer with a Man City win over Wigan. It will hopefully get me back on track and the plan then will be back level with the target by next weekend. I'll confirm this bet before 3pm.

 

[bryndaloo]

[quote author=bryndaloo link=topic=46433.msg1396096#msg1396096 date=1315506458]
[quote author=Pesam link=topic=46433.msg1391636#msg1391636 date=1314805418]
[quote author=danwms link=topic=46433.msg1391596#msg1391596 date=1314802511]
Ok im sorted to give it a go.
[/quote]

Good luck, hopefully should be some decent "certainties" on some of the international games this weekend and Bryndaloo should provide us with some good tips during the rugby world cup.
[/quote]

Got up to £40 by lumping my entire bank on Warrington to beat Wigan last Sunday - I've withdrawn that money now as I'm struggling to find time to keep on top of this now.

As for tips for the RWC:
Argentina are currently around 7.0 to beat England - whilst I don't think they'll beat them, that price is too steep. Back now and lay in play.
Similar for Wales v SA.
Also you can get Wales +13.5 points against SA at around 1.9 - The last three games have had SA winning by 5, 3 and 3 so 13.5 is plenty.

Longer term, back Argentina and Scotland to win the tournament at 290 and 330 respectively and Lay once which ever one qualifies from the group.

But don't blame me if you lose money on these tips!
[/quote]

Bet 1 successful - Backed £20 on Argentina at 8.0 before the game, just layed at 4.0 giving me a clear £20 profit regardless of the result. Tidy.

 

[Pesam]

Good work Bryn. I've decided not to bet on the Rugby though, as you know, my knowledge is limited.

 

[Pesam]

Changed my mind, need to risk a bit more tomake back the deficit..........layed Accrington winning at Gillingham £124 to win £40.

 

[Pesam]

Current score Birmingham 1-0 Millwall..........£21 lay of 1-0 final score to win £6

And £21 on Norwich NOT keeping a clean sheet against WBA to win £6.

 

[Pesam]

£2 @ 12.0 on David Goodwillie 1st goalscorer v Fulham

 

[Pesam]

Fairly successful weekend giving me a chance of meeting next weekends target to £228.

Bank @ £174 (after all commissions). £25 bet on over 1.5 goals in QPR v Newcastle game to win £11

 

[Pesam]

£142 on Barca not losing to Milan (currently losing 0-1) to win £31

 

[Pesam]

Barca equaliser so sold the bet for a profit of £21 if Barca don't lose. No liability now on Milan victory.

 

[Pesam]

Bank on £170, chasing a target for Saturday of £228.

 

[Pesam]

Against my better judgement I've decided to bet on the rugby........£10 on Georgia to beat Scotland with a 17.5 point handicap - to win £9.00

 

[bryndaloo]

[quote author=Pesam link=topic=46433.msg1398802#msg1398802 date=1315985544]
Against my better judgement I've decided to bet on the rugby........£10 on Georgia to beat Scotland with a 17.5 point handicap - to win £9.00
[/quote]

Easy money!

 

[Pesam]

[quote author=bryndaloo link=topic=46433.msg1398841#msg1398841 date=1315991077]
[quote author=Pesam link=topic=46433.msg1398802#msg1398802 date=1315985544]
Against my better judgement I've decided to bet on the rugby........£10 on Georgia to beat Scotland with a 17.5 point handicap - to win £9.00
[/quote]

Easy money!
[/quote]

As you know my knowledge of the game is limited but history tells me that Ireland, Scotland and Wales rarely thrash the weaker nations.

Any tips for the next few games?

Bank @ £179