He's staying.
I personally would take Rooney ahead of Falcao - putting everything but football aside. Ferguson knows what he's going to get from Rooney and, in the league at least, he delivers time and again. Falcao looks amazing but would he deliver in this league - big question.
That said, you could see the mancs opting for a deal that saw a large wedge of cash coming their way as Rooney was waved off. Problem for them is, as already said, Rooney looks like he wants to stay.