WWIII Return of the Ruskie

[Athens]

They'll probably just cut the internet cable further away from the coast.

Either that or even the Russians don't want to be seen killing Irish fishermen thousands of miles away from mother Russia. Usually they go in somewhere under the pretence of protecting ethnic Russians, don't they? I'm not sure they can pull that off in the north Atlantic.

 

[rurikbird]

I'm starting to think that Putin won't dare to authorize an all-out war with Ukraine at this point, particularly as the shipments of Western anti-tank missiles and other advanced weaponry are rapidly changing the risk/reward calculus. At the same time, simply drawing down forces and leaving without achieving any meaningful concessions would be too humiliating. Therefore, I'm thinking he might try to create a major distraction by using his puppet Lukashenko in Belarus to do something crazy against a bordering NATO country, while maintaining plausible deniability. It's like a China/North Korea dynamic, but in Europe. This is what's happening in Belarus right now:



Lithuania should be on high alert...

 

[Judge Jules]

How does the balance of forces look in that theatre? Is Belarus militarised up to the eyeballs or do the Lithuanians have equivalent forces at their disposal?

 

[Woland]

Belarus absolutely hammers Lithuania in every possible measure (600 tanks v none, 200 planes v 10, three times as many troops, twenty times as many reservists) but that gets dwarfed by the fact the Russians have been sending full squadrons and heavy artillery into Belarus for the past month under the guise of 'military exercises'

 

[iseered]

Lithuania is a member of NATO. Belarus/Cryptorussia can invade but that would trigger the "one for all" clause, which would be stupid. They'll probably just stick to their usual below the radar stuff

 

[Rosco]

My sister in law has handed in her notice in her job this week. Her bosses have told her she needs to focus on creating and pushing the narrative for war with Russia. She'd prefer not to, and CNN will just replace her with someone who will push that agenda

 

[redsar]

 

[LeTallecWiz]

Relationship between Ukraine and US built over centuries? Huh?

 

[Judge Jules]

Methinks you've been whooshed there, old pal.

 

[rurikbird]

Tucker is the most pathetic, obvious liar for hire I've ever seen in my life. Too bad John Stewart did not completely finish the job when he emasculated him back in 2004.

 

[rurikbird]

I think the basic choice about what to do about Russian threats boils down to this: do you believe Putin is a genuine madman who will risk everything up to the nuclear annihilation in order to prove some kind of larger ideological point (and what point would that be, exactly)? Or is he a bully who does a good job pretending to be a madman in order to scare everyone around into giving him what he wants (respect, money, impunity from law and elections etc)? A successful strategy of dealing with him will be fundamentally different depending on how you answer that question.

 

[Athens]

He's a mad bully. I don't think he'll go nuclear, it didn't happen during the darkest days of the cold war (although we came very close on several occasions) so I don't think it'll happen now...


How can you deal with him? I read a report that said the personal sanctions against him that the Americans proposed won't work because he has a lot of wealth in London. So you would need the UK to do something but there's dodgy ties between the current UK government and shadowy Russian figures.

 

[rurikbird]

I wouldn't be against kicking Abramovich and his mafia money out of the UK, for more reasons than one 🙂

 

[LeTallecWiz]

I think the basic choice about what to do about Russian threats boils down to this: do you believe Putin is a genuine madman who will risk everything up to the nuclear annihilation in order to prove some kind of larger ideological point (and what point would that be, exactly)? Or is he a bully who does a good job pretending to be a madman in order to scare everyone around into giving him what he wants (respect, money, impunity from law etc)? A successful strategy of dealing with him will be fundamentally different depending on how you answer that question.

I still remember when Obama and the Dems scoffed at Romney, who was talking about this threat over a decade ago ... I never got why they were scoffing at the Russians - that's just one nation you don't ever underestimate.

 

[rurikbird]

I still remember when Obama and the Dems scoffed at Romney, who was talking about this threat over a decade ago ... I never got why they were scoffing at the Russians - that's just one nation you don't ever underestimate.

I liked Obama, but he was hopelessly naive in so many things, including this. The more time passes, the more disastrous many of his foreign policy choices look.

On Russia, he missed a key window when Putin was not yet so strong or sure of himself (he even relinquished the Presidency for a couple of years, which is unimaginable now) where his ambitions might have been checked at a relatively low cost if the threat was recognized early. Now all that's left for Biden is to choose between a menu of bad options and any mistake can trigger a real sh*tstorm.

 

[LeTallecWiz]

I liked Obama, but he was hopelessly naive in so many things, including this. The more time passes, the more disastrous many of his foreign policy choices look.

On Russia, he missed a key window when Putin was not yet so strong or sure of himself (he even relinquished the Presidency for a couple of years, which is unimaginable now) where his ambitions might have been checked at a relatively low cost if the threat was recognized early. Now all that's left for Biden is to choose between a menu of bad options and any mistake can trigger a real sh*tstorm.

I have friends who fought here who've gone back there to train people there and prep ... I can't tell - as you allude - what the game really is with Putin, or how close they are to a serious shit storm. As I alluded to above, never ever underestimate the Russians, it's just not worth it.

I just hope Biden is there, or Kamala Harris is an able replacement, because as you said, it's bad options ... and a mistake can be fucking disastrous.

What are you hearing from there? What are you expecting will happen?

 

[rurikbird]

I have friends who fought here who've gone back there to train people there and prep ... I can't tell - as you allude - what the game really is with Putin, or how close they are to a serious shit storm. As I alluded to above, never ever underestimate the Russians, it's just not worth it.

I just hope Biden is there, or Kamala Harris is an able replacement, because as you said, it's bad options ... and a mistake can be fucking disastrous.

What are you hearing from there? What are you expecting will happen?

A lot will depend on what China wants – do they want to use Russia as a pointed stick to poke the West with or do they need stability and growth more at the moment. Putin and Xi are meeting at the Olympics to discuss this very issue. Putin will not do anything drastic without Xi's approval.

 

[Rosco]

Sounds like we're doomed, future comrades.

 

[LeTallecWiz]

A lot will depend on what China wants – do they want to use Russia as a pointed stick to poke the West with or do they need stability and growth more at the moment. Putin and Xi are meeting at the Olympics to discuss this very issue. Putin will not do anything drastic without Xi's approval.

It seems very weird to me that Putin is in any way 'subservient' to anyone ...

 

[tomasjj]

On one side, I wonder how it feels for Ukraine, and Georgia, to be the proxy where the US can play out their outdated cold war policies, misusing NATO.
On the other side, as a consequence of past US interventions in former USSR countries, I wonder how it now feels for Ukraine to be under increased threat from Putin's Russia. Painted themselves also a bit into a corner here. No one kind of gets off free here from this debacle.

And don't bother dantes or Ross, I don't give a toss what deranged shite you come up with anymore.

 

[rurikbird]

It seems very weird to me that Putin is in any way 'subservient' to anyone ...

Yes, he is increasingly dependent on China's support – don't be fooled by the "tough guy" image; Russia has a similar size economy to Italy and far less diversified. Also, China is seriously encroaching on Russia's Eastern provinces, where Russia is losing population at an alarming rate, while China is always hungry for natural resources. It's an unequal relationship because Russia increasingly depends on China economically and politically and that dependency will become absolute in case of a new wave of really hard-hitting Western sanctions after an invasion (cutting off the banking system, closing the gas pipeline to Northern Europe etc). It would be suicidal for Putin to make a big aggressive move without ensuring China has his back when the shit hits the fan – and the Chinese are always tough negotiators and only do what's in their interests.

In other words, if let's say Xi now calculates that China needs a year or two of stable growth at this point and it's better not to rattle the Western devil too much, he can definitely tell Putin to cool it, settle for a symbolic victory or concession and move on.

 

[LeTallecWiz]

Yes, he is increasingly dependent on China's support – don't be fooled by the "tough guy" image; Russia has a similar size economy to Italy and far less diversified. Also, China is seriously encroaching on Russia's Eastern provinces, where Russia is losing population at an alarming rate, while China is always hungry for natural resources. It's an unequal relationship because Russia increasingly depends on China economically and politically and that dependency will become absolute in case of a new wave of really hard-hitting Western sanctions after an invasion (cutting off the banking system, closing the gas pipeline etc). It would be suicidal for Putin to make a big aggressive move without ensuring China has his back when the shit hits the fan – and the Chinese are always tough negotiators and only do what's in their interests.

In other words, if let's say Xi now calculates that China needs a year or two of stable growth at this point and it's better not to rattle the Western devil too much, he can definitely tell Putin to cool it, settle for a symbolic victory or concession and move on.

Why?

 

[rurikbird]

Why?

Many factors – low birth rates, low life expectancy, people emigrating to other countries, and now COVID. This article has more, here is a quote:

Russia’s total population of about 145 million is lower than it was when Vladimir Putin first came to power in 2000. The Russian president admitted in his 2019 annual press conference that the prospect of a depopulating Russia “haunted” him. Reversing the demographic crisis by the end of his term in 2024 was one of the key pledges announced during his 2018 re-election campaign. The Kremlin has over the years introduced a number of policies and welfare payments to boost the decreasing birth rate, including schemes that give generous payouts to families with more than two children. Despite its effort, however, a 2019 government report said Russia’s population could drop by more than 12 million by 2035.

I read that some of the Siberian and Far East provinces look increasingly hollowed out with migrants and workers from the Central Asia or China largely replacing the working-age local populace.

 

[mark1975]

The Fibre Optics story re the Russian Navy smacks of an empty tit-for-tat threat for the potential sanctions against the Russia-Germany pipeline, no?

 

[LeTallecWiz]

Many factors – low birth rates, low life expectancy, people emigrating to other countries, and now COVID. This article has more, here is a quote.

This is an issue in many "western countries" ...

 

[Athens]

I read that some of the Siberian and Far East provinces look increasingly hollowed out with migrants and workers from the Central Asia or China largely replacing the working-age local populace.

I've read this too, there seems to be a fear that China will do what Russia has done over the years "protect" their ethnic groups in certain regions. Russia wouldn't take on China in a scrap either, it's one of the few countries they can't push around.

 

[Athens]

Anyone here been to Russia? I've never been but it's always fascinated me for some reason.

 

[mark1975]

Anyone here been to Russia? I've never been but it's always fascinated me for some reason.

Nope, I'm off to a stag do in Belgium in May, hopefully they hold off on wiping us all out until after then.

 

[tomasjj]

Anyone here been to Russia? I've never been but it's always fascinated me for some reason.

I have been a couple of times. Very interesting culturally. Always good to meet people and move beyond categories.

Was also recently back in The US. Met lots of great people. Very Nice experiemce after all The negative media stuff The last years.

 

[rurikbird]

Well, I've been obviously – even lived in Moscow for a few months as a kid.

This is a great story by Louis CK about Russia; I remember the time he's describing – there is no exaggeration here.