I expect us to be active in the transfer market this summer:
Firstly, there should be money available to spend, certainly more than this year, because:
1. We have Champions League next year (and a guarantee of 8 games v 6 previously)
2. We will have finished paying for the Annie Road
3. Annie Road should be generating more cash than this season once hospitality is completed and it is at full capacity for the whole season
4. As our spending in recent years has been relatively low, we shouldn't have too much cash-flow strain paying remaining instalments on historic deals (at 31 May 2023, we owed a net £46m, of which approx. half to two-thirds should be payable this coming year).
Secondly, as stated above, Edwards coming in plus a new manager will inevitably prompt some changes in personnel to suit the new system.
Thirdly, we need to refresh in various areas due to ageing players, plus the likes of Matip, Thiago, Adrian leaving on frees (the first team might still be performing at a better level had Matip and Thiago played more / some minutes this season, or had we continued to use more of the kids to ease injured players back in).
But don't be surprised to see some of that money spent on new contracts rather than new players (VvD and Trent the most obvious).
Fourthly, the Salah conundrum. Not going to re-hash the discussions in this thread, but if he goes, we will need to replace him, and if he stays we will need to budget for either a contract extension or jumping on the right player to replace him if that player becomes available (e.g. like how we brought Diaz in a window earlier than planned). Personally, I think if he doesn't agreed a new deal by the end of July (assuming that is our plan) then we should move heaven and earth to move him on and replace him this summer.
So we need to learn lessons from past windows / current squad composition:
1. If a player (and I'm thinking Salah, but it could apply to others) is intent on running his contract down, then we need to get value for him now.
2. Don't buy anyone with a poor injury record. As good as the likes of Ibou or Jota are, they've worth sod all when in the treatment room.
3. Take care throwing big money contracts at players who are getting on (I'm mainly thinking VvD and Robbo here, Alisson still has plenty in the tank).
4. Listen to serious offers for ageing / injury-prone players.
5. If we can't / don't move all the crocks on, then we need to make sure we have decent cover for when they are injured.
6. We need a pathway for promising young players to get decent playing time - I'd say Quansah and Bradley should be part of the first team squad on a regular basis, but some of the other kids (Danns, Clark, McConnell) need decent loan options. And we need to take a decision on Carvalho - if he's not part of Arne's plans for next season then we should sell.
And we are now in a new era for PSR / FFP. The new UEFA rules aren't going to bite next year as the target measure is still high, but we're going to need to manage wage / amortisation costs going forward. The new rules give you 1/3 of the benefit of profits on selling players each year for 3 years from the sale. A sale of Salah, which will be pretty much pure profit, could give us decent breathing space for a few years. And we're going to need to get in the habit of selling players on a regular basis. Finally, because those rules work on calendar years, and not seasons, sales in January won't yield any benefit until the following year. That will put clubs under pressure to sell in summer windows, which could be to our advantage (e.g. we got a good deal on Salah all those years ago as Roma had to sell to meet FFP). We should be looking to pick off talent from clubs in financial distress.