Betting First Goalscorer

[ILD]

Anyone doing Sturridge and 1-0 later?

Ha.

I won't be but imagine if it happened again.

 

[Pesam]

Sad to say I fancy 2-1 to the Swans although this is a good sign because my betting predictions have been awful so far this season.

 

[Piedro]

I'm doing Coutinho 1st goal and might have a little saver on Michu as I think we will struggle aerially.

 

[Pesam]

I think I must still be drunk after the weekend........£3 Lucas 1st goal to win £300

 

[Leo]

You should have got 100-1 for him to have a shot lad.

 

[Pesam]

Arf, I'm going in again............

£5 Lucas 1st goal to win £775
£10 Smalling to win £700
£8 Rafael to win £600

Edit; just stuck another £6 on Lucas @ 170/1.....I know it's hugely unlikely but 170/1 is just a daft price!

 

[Jürgen4PM]

I'd just like to pop in and share with you lot my love for Cambiasso. I had the bald little genius to score at any time (9/1) last night.

 

[Jürgen4PM]

To score at any time is where the action is

 

[Pesam]

£10 Keogh 1st goal Forst v Derby to win £540

 

[Pesam]

£6 James Collins 1st goal Hull v West Ham to win £425
£8 Caulker 1st goal Fulham v Cardiff to win £490
£15 Gayle 1st goal Saints v Palace to win £185
£8 Kozak 1st goal Villa v City to win £102
£4 Delph 1st goal to win £246

 

[redsar]

£8 Caulker 1st goal Fulham v Cardiff to win £490

Congrats

 

[ILD]

Didn't go Caulker this weekend.

Ah well. Congrats.

 

[Piedro]

Go ed the fucking Caulker!

Peas, I'd love to have a pint with you sometime soon mate

 

[ILD]

Did you do em Pete? I was fairly sick when I heard he scored. I didn't do him.

 

[Piedro]

No mate, I did a coupon yesterday and funnily enough Fulham did me in for £150!

Would just love a pint with Pesam, I could imagine we would talk for hours about shit

 

[ILD]

Yeah but I'd be hoping he'd be chatting about his penchant for younger birds than he love of lower league football though.

 

[Piedro]

Well I'm dating a girl 10 yrs younger than me so we have something in common

 

[Pesam]

No mate, I did a coupon yesterday and funnily enough Fulham did me in for £150!

Would just love a pint with Pesam, I could imagine we would talk for hours about shit

I'll make a point of coming to the next "drinkies" Pete, I also reckon we could talk shite for hours.

The Caulker bet was the start of a great days betting for me - I couldn't find much to bet on pre-kick off and just did a couple of small bets i.e. Exeter to win away, Donny to win away and a lay of Bournemouth (all of which won).

At half time I put £30 on WBA to win at United (the half time analysis suggested it was possible) @ 8/1, I layed Orient who were 1-0 up and playing against 10 men - £24 bet won me £200 when Walsall got the equaliser and I stuck an extra £10 on Exeter to win when they were 1-0 down @ 22/1 and they scored 2 late goals!

 

[Pesam]

£264 profit so far on this thread.

 

[Leo]

Gwan the Caulker

 

[ILD]

I had a fiver on him at 40/1 the other week n all.

McAuley must be up next for us?

 

[Pesam]

I had a fiver on him at 40/1 the other week n all.

McAuley must be up next for us?

The problem with McAuley now is that he scored 4 goals in 4 games recently (2 for Northern Ireland and 2 for WBA) which has drawn attention to his goalscoring abilities and I reckon the 40/1+ prices that I used to get will not be available in most games.

 

[Leo]

The value will stay with Caulker for another few weeks, it's when he starts to get noticed by the layers it's time to switch.

 

[ILD]

But is Caulker likely to score first again for a while?

 

[Leo]

That's the thing.
If you backed him every week around the 33-45 mark you would be almost certain to make a profit over the course of a season.
If he scores 3 or 4 times first in a season then you are quids in.

 

[Pesam]

£10 Coleman 1st goal Everton v Toon to win £425

 

[Pesam]

But is Caulker likely to score first again for a while?

I reckon he could score 4 or 5 this season and therefore every chance at least one of those might be as first goalscorer. I'll continue to back him IF his price is 38/1+ against non-top 6 teams and at least 55/1 against top 6 teams.

I'd price him at about 33/1 and 48/1ish respectively for those games and therefore should make a profit on him if i can get those prices AND I'm right that he'll score 4 or 5 goals.

 

[ILD]

You using betfair yeah?

 

[Pesam]

You using betfair yeah?

Yeah, I'm not sure it's possible to make a profit on First Goalscorer with Ladbrokes/Hills/Corals etc their profit margins on that market must be huge. I have a lad who works in the warehouse who bets in the bookies and I usually recommend a 1st goalscorer for him; when we compare the prices we got it's shocking. Last season I advised him to do McAuley 1st goal v LFC, I got 90/1 he got 40/1...............High St bookies are thieving bastards IMO.

 

[ILD]

Yep. I might slap a few €€€ into a betfair account for such bets.