Firmino

[Frogfish]

"Yeah but we're the top goalscorers!" bleat bleat bleat.

We score lots of goals because we make lots of chances. We HAVE to make lots of chances, because we miss lots of chances.

I've kept this alive in a tab in the browser because without stats these comments mean nothing and I'd like to know if we truly are any better or worse than those teams with dedicated top goal scorers.

According to the Premier League we are 6th worse at missing BIG Chances (however they come to designate them) so to say we are the worst (as I've seen some say) or worse than other top teams is clearly not true. Obviously the better teams will be near the top of this particular league since they create more chances.

United - 43 misses
City - 41
Stoke - 33
Arsenal - 32
Spurs - 32
Liverpool - 31
Chelsea - 27
Everton - 27

Maybe we should use Shot Accuracy then ? Squawka :

Liverpool - 53% (429 chances created)
Everton - 53% (350 chances created)
Spurs - 51% (423 chances created)
United - 49% (396 chances created)
Chelsea - 49% (342 chances created)
Arsenal - 47% (345 chances created)
Man City - 45% (388 chances created)

Seems no matter which way you cut it we are no worse than the other teams in the top 7 as far as creating & missing chances is concerned (Chelsea the outlier).

 

[Ryan]

I see your logic, reasoning, and perfectly valid destruction of Brendan's bullshit opinion there Froggy, but Brendan did use capitals to make his point, so y'know... Hard to know which way to go with this one.

 

[peekay]

I've kept this alive in a tab in the browser because without stats these comments mean nothing and I'd like to know if we truly are any better or worse than those teams with dedicated top goal scorers.

According to the Premier League we are 6th worse at missing BIG Chances (however they come to designate them) so to say we are the worst (as I've seen some say) or worse than other top teams is clearly not true. Obviously the better teams will be near the top of this particular league since they create more chances.

United - 43 misses
City - 41
Stoke - 33
Arsenal - 32
Spurs - 32
Liverpool - 31
Chelsea - 27
Everton - 27

Maybe we should use Shot Accuracy then ? Squawka :

Liverpool - 53% (429 chances created)
Everton - 53% (350 chances created)
Spurs - 51% (423 chances created)
United - 49% (396 chances created)
Chelsea - 49% (342 chances created)
Arsenal - 47% (345 chances created)
Man City - 45% (388 chances created)

Seems no matter which way you cut it we are no worse than the other teams in the top 7 as far as creating & missing chances is concerned (Chelsea the outlier).

Brilliant post there Frogfish.

I do believe one of the reasons we concede so many is because we overload on attack and do no offer adequate protection to our defenders. I dont have statistics to back it up. This is from observing our games and how easily we get caught in counter attacks.

But maybe we can interpret the statistics in a different way. In order to achieve the same level of efficiency (chances created and shot accuracy) as other top 6 teams, we have to tilt the balance in favor of attack as in commit more people to attack? Not all aspects of this game can be covered with stats.

 

[keniget]

It would be interesting to make to see how it plays out in terms of player positioning over the course of the game and comparisons to the other teams in the top 6.

Anyone got a subscription to Opta lying around?

 

[Hansern]

Anyone know how many goals we've conceded on counter attacks?

 

[Oncy]

 

[Hansern]

Found it:

26 from open play, 1 counter attack, 12 from set pieces and 3 penalties.

 

[Mystic]

I've kept this alive in a tab in the browser because without stats these comments mean nothing and I'd like to know if we truly are any better or worse than those teams with dedicated top goal scorers.

According to the Premier League we are 6th worse at missing BIG Chances (however they come to designate them) so to say we are the worst (as I've seen some say) or worse than other top teams is clearly not true. Obviously the better teams will be near the top of this particular league since they create more chances.

United - 43 misses
City - 41
Stoke - 33
Arsenal - 32
Spurs - 32
Liverpool - 31
Chelsea - 27
Everton - 27

Maybe we should use Shot Accuracy then ? Squawka :

Liverpool - 53% (429 chances created)
Everton - 53% (350 chances created)
Spurs - 51% (423 chances created)
United - 49% (396 chances created)
Chelsea - 49% (342 chances created)
Arsenal - 47% (345 chances created)
Man City - 45% (388 chances created)

Seems no matter which way you cut it we are no worse than the other teams in the top 7 as far as creating & missing chances is concerned (Chelsea the outlier).

I can't wait to see Brendan conveniently ignore this well constructed and accurate post as it shows an awkward truth.

 

[manwithnoname]

Can someone explain it in a sentence with no big words please?

 

[Oncy]

We create chances. And take some.

 

[Hansern]

You mean with capital letters

 

[mark1975]

It doesn't really deter from the fact that we need to buy a goalscoring attacker in the summer, and we will. The arguement has gone full circle really, we miss chances that an instinctive player might make the most of. That surely has to be seen as one of the factors that could push us to the next level. As well as the other gaping issues, obviously.

 

[StevieM]

Can someone explain it in a sentence with no big words please?

Basically

Our defenders are shit.

Our forwards are not shit.

 

[StevieM]

It's seems weird to me that we stress the importance of pace upfront so much.

Surely pace is about getting in behind defence - but when's that going to happen against teams that sit deep.

I would have thought width would have been as important if not more so.

The fact remains - that we concede far too much from set pieces, which doesn't support the suggestion that we overload attack too much.

Did someone point a stat saying we had one of the worst record for conceding after defensive errors or individual mistakes.

That's where I'd say our major focus has to be.

The 2nd goal we conceded against Palace was so typically us.

In possession - couple of good forward passes on and we went sideways, then back - then a mistake leading to a set piece - then - what the fuck was Can doing - he started tracking Benteke, then stopped.

So that's either shit decision making on his part or a fault in how we set up to defend corners.

 

[Ryan]

In possession - couple of good forward passes on and we went sideways, then back - then a mistake leading to a set piece - then - what the fuck was Can doing - he started tracking Benteke, then stopped.

So that's either shit decision making on his part or a fault in how we set up to defend corners.

It was poorly deployed zonal marking.

One of the principles of zonal is that you shouldn't* run towards goal as the defender. You can run towards the ball, or out to attack it, defend, whatever, but as soon as your opponent goes past you towards the goal then you pass on responsibility to the next line of defenders, or goalkeeper. Essentially it stops players run across each other.

There are nuances of course, but that's the reason why Can let him go. Because he's trained to.

 

[Squiggles]

It's seems weird to me that we stress the importance of pace upfront so much.

Surely pace is about getting in behind defence - but when's that going to happen against teams that sit deep.

I would have thought width would have been as important if not more so.

The fact remains - that we concede far too much from set pieces, which doesn't support the suggestion that we overload attack too much.

Did someone point a stat saying we had one of the worst record for conceding after defensive errors or individual mistakes.

That's where I'd say our major focus has to be.

The 2nd goal we conceded against Palace was so typically us.

In possession - couple of good forward passes on and we went sideways, then back - then a mistake leading to a set piece - then - what the fuck was Can doing - he started tracking Benteke, then stopped.

So that's either shit decision making on his part or a fault in how we set up to defend corners.

I don't think thats fair. Mane's pace has been key to unlocking some teams who sit back. Not all his goals/assists are him breaking through a high line, though. Often his acceleration is enough to beat that one man required to make something happen. For me it's fundamental to our attack and why we can look toothless when he's not playing.

 

[StevieM]

It was poorly deployed zonal marking.

One of the principles of zonal is that you shouldn't* run towards goal as the defender. You can run towards the ball, or out to attack it, defend, whatever, but as soon as your opponent goes past you towards the goal then you pass on responsibility to the next line of defenders, or goalkeeper. Essentially it stops players run across each other.

There are nuances of course, but that's the reason why Can let him go. Because he's trained to.

Yeah - I figured it might - but I've obviously never been exposed to coaching of any sort.

It seems like a perfectly good tactic to dismantle us - Can & another player were left with no-one to pick up - so does the fault lie with the central defenders who didn't attack the ball.

So, ultimately, we have fundamental flaws in defence - either tactically or personnel wise.

We aren't going to win anything until this is fixed - regardless of how many forwards we put on the pitch.

 

[Ryan]

Yeah - I figured it might - but I've obviously never been exposed to coaching of any sort.

It seems like a perfectly good tactic to dismantle us - Can & another player were left with no-one to pick up - so does the fault lie with the central defenders who didn't attack the ball.

So, ultimately, we have fundamental flaws in defence - either tactically or personnel wise.

We aren't going to win anything until this is fixed - regardless of how many forwards we put on the pitch.

Yes.