Dicks Nephew

[darkstarexodus]

See, I'd put those the other way round. Let the geek suggest a list of players whose numbers indicate they might be worth a look, but let the ex-pro be the one to actually go and scout them - and allow him to turn them all down if he doesn't rate what he's seen.

Yep, came here to say this. You find potential value in the stats but need to validate it with the eye test.

 

[Rosco]

It'll be a moral lesson for our idiotic transfer committee. Rodgers said recently: “There is maybe an issue with scouts. When I was at Liverpool I asked about Van Dijk and he was at Groningen and then at Celtic. But I was told he wouldn’t be for us at the time.”

I think Binny posted something a while back that adds to that. Basically that we were much more likely to sign a player once we'd seen them prove they can play in the Premier League.

I think it shows a fundamental lack of ability to judge players as they are and to project what they can be for us.

And it leads to us signing players for much more than we actually have to. And quite often we read way too much into a seasons form in the Premier League - like we did with Lovren.

 

[dantes]

Yep, came here to say this. You find potential value in the stats but need to validate it with the eye test.

That's the way it sounds on paper, in reality doing it that way around will just open the door to confirmation bias.

Think of it this way, you're looking for someone to pass the ball around like Alonso in midfield. If you go and look at lots of players, with your eyes, you'll immeadiately get a sense for whether they have it or not. You're not just looking at the completion %, or the sideways/forwards ratio, or long/short ratio. You're actually looking at the pass in all its context, the way they passed it, what was going on in the game when they passed it, were they looking at the players around them, what did it say about their character, was it an intelligent pass, was it a mindless kick aimed at another red shirt, was it appropriate to make that pass given the way the game was panning out, what does that say about their intelligence. All these sorts of things tell you about the player, and help you do what Rosco above is chatting about.

If you just use stats to find players with good passing statistics, you'll get 50 candidates. The real passer who you need will be listed 37 out of 50. You'll only send a scout to the top 10, all of whom are cunts. So what will happen? Your scout will uhhmm and ahh, and say ah well, maybe, uhm you know, yeah they're ok I guess, yes. Because he wants that sweet cash bonus that Macca was chatting about. It's a conflict of interest, and it will lead to confirmation bias.

That it basically why you should always do it the other way round, and go looking for number 37 out of 50 the hard way.

 

[dantes]

I'm no scout, but Van Dick looks like a damn good player to me. It's insulting to say he'd only improve us when a wooden post hammered into the grass would fucking improve us. A part exchange might bring his fee down, or else leaking some fake stories to the press to make his fans turn against him. Fake news, fake news.

 

[darkstarexodus]

That's the way it sounds on paper, in reality doing it that way around will just open the door to confirmation bias.

Think of it this way, you're looking for someone to pass the ball around like Alonso in midfield. If you go and look at lots of players, with your eyes, you'll immeadiately get a sense for whether they have it or not. You're not just looking at the completion %, or the sideways/forwards ratio, or long/short ratio. You're actually looking at the pass in all its context, the way they passed it, what was going on in the game when they passed it, were they looking at the players around them, what did it say about their character, was it an intelligent pass, was it a mindless kick aimed at another red shirt, was it appropriate to make that pass given the way the game was panning out, what does that say about their intelligence. All these sorts of things tell you about the player, and help you do what Rosco above is chatting about.

If you just use stats to find players with good passing statistics, you'll get 50 candidates. The real passer who you need will be listed 37 out of 50. You'll only send a scout to the top 10, all of whom are cunts. So what will happen? Your scout will uhhmm and ahh, and say ah well, maybe, uhm you know, yeah they're ok I guess, yes. Because he wants that sweet cash bonus that Macca was chatting about. It's a conflict of interest, and it will lead to confirmation bias.

That it basically why you should always do it the other way round, and go looking for number 37 out of 50 the hard way.

But then you're most likely to find the players in leagues that have a high profile, which increases the costs. Use the stats to send people to places we wouldn't normally go or don't have the resources to blanket.

And keep the guy who found Alberto, Aspas and Markovich far away from any matches altogether.

 

[dantes]

But then you're most likely to find the players in leagues that have a high profile, which increases the costs. Use the stats to send people to places we wouldn't normally go or don't have the resources to blanket.

And keep the guy who found Alberto, Aspas and Markovich far away from any matches altogether.

Depends where you send your scouts. That's interesting though, using stats to broadly compare the leagues might have value. Then the law of averages comes into play, and looking for good tacklers in leagues which have the most successful tackles per game might be a valid thing to do. But applying that filter to individual players is definitely needlessly inaccurate.

 

[manwithnoname]

I think Binny posted something a while back that adds to that. Basically that we were much more likely to sign a player once we'd seen them prove they can play in the Premier League.

I think it shows a fundamental lack of ability to judge players as they are and to project what they can be for us.

And it leads to us signing players for much more than we actually have to. And quite often we read way too much into a seasons form in the Premier League - like we did with Lovren.

I posted that months ago as well . I think it was from Rodgers and was about Van Dijk

Maybe it's the same interview or he's repeating himself

 

[peekay]

That's the way it sounds on paper, in reality doing it that way around will just open the door to confirmation bias.

Think of it this way, you're looking for someone to pass the ball around like Alonso in midfield. If you go and look at lots of players, with your eyes, you'll immeadiately get a sense for whether they have it or not. You're not just looking at the completion %, or the sideways/forwards ratio, or long/short ratio. You're actually looking at the pass in all its context, the way they passed it, what was going on in the game when they passed it, were they looking at the players around them, what did it say about their character, was it an intelligent pass, was it a mindless kick aimed at another red shirt, was it appropriate to make that pass given the way the game was panning out, what does that say about their intelligence. All these sorts of things tell you about the player, and help you do what Rosco above is chatting about.

If you just use stats to find players with good passing statistics, you'll get 50 candidates. The real passer who you need will be listed 37 out of 50. You'll only send a scout to the top 10, all of whom are cunts. So what will happen? Your scout will uhhmm and ahh, and say ah well, maybe, uhm you know, yeah they're ok I guess, yes. Because he wants that sweet cash bonus that Macca was chatting about. It's a conflict of interest, and it will lead to confirmation bias.

That it basically why you should always do it the other way round, and go looking for number 37 out of 50 the hard way.

I am really not expecting our scouts to unearth the next Kante, Mahrez (from French championship), or the one legged golden boot winner from the Paraguayan league ( contact @gene hughes for more info on this player). I can see how stats can help in sifting through the mass of players and identifying a pool of candidates if we are targeting an unknown jewel.

What we seem unable to do is scout and evaluate the suitability of players playing in high profile European leagues for our league and style of play. It is not like Markovic, Aspas, Benteke, Moreno were playing in the Guatemalan premier league. Our scouts should be able to assess by watching games live whether the attributes they posses will transfer very well to the PL and our tactics and get it right most of the time. We don't really need stats to identify some of the decent left backs in the top 5 European leagues.

 

[Kay Age El]

Sakho with a potential awful injury.. played very well until now but he could've done his knee.

 

[Rosco]

I am not sure I understand your reasoning, care to elaborate?

1. Well it starts with the price. £50m is ridiculous and could be much better spent. That might make him the most expensive defender in the history of football ?

2. There's also the fact that generally Southampton sell well so you should be wary in buying from them.

3. The injury.
His return has been pushed back a couple of times already, to the point where he won't have played football for about 6 months when he's on the market.

Whilst the details are sketchy - if you read enough articles the proponderence of them state he has a foot ligament injury that required surgery.

We have another player with a foot ligament injury already (Jordan Henderson) - and we're seeing how difficult they are to heal. So its possible his injury is somewhat similar to Henderson's.

One of the most common surgeries on foot ligaments is the lisfranc procedure. Again we don't actually know this is what he had but the mechanism of injury, the fact he had surgery and the length of time he's taking to return all fit with it. The reports say there's a good chance a player won't get back to previous performance levels after they've recovered.

So, is it smart to take a £50m gamble in those circumstances ?

I don't think so.

 

[Insignificance]

1. Well it starts with the price. £50m is ridiculous and could be much better spent. That might make him the most expensive defender in the history of football ?

2. There's also the fact that generally Southampton sell well so you should be wary in buying from them.

3. The injury.
His return has been pushed back a couple of times already, to the point where he won't have played football for about 6 months when he's on the market.

Whilst the details are sketchy - if you read enough articles the proponderence of them state he has a foot ligament injury that required surgery.

We have another player with a foot ligament injury already (Jordan Henderson) - and we're seeing how difficult they are to heal. So its possible his injury is somewhat similar to Henderson's.

One of the most common surgeries on foot ligaments is the lisfranc procedure. Again we don't actually know this is what he had but the mechanism of injury, the fact he had surgery and the length of time he's taking to return all fit with it. The reports say there's a good chance a player won't get back to previous performance levels after they've recovered.

So, is it smart to take a £50m gamble in those circumstances ?

I don't think so.

Good post!

And a player which name contain both virgin and dick has something weird about him!

 

[Hansern]

Thats a lot of "what ifs" that have to either be true or fall heavily to one side of the argument though.

We dont know the full extent of the injury but We'll know his full medical history regarding that injury if a transfer will indeed happen.

They sell well? We've just made one of the best transfers in years with Mane. Spurs with a great purchase of Wanyama. Clyne was a very good transfer. Value for money, every one of them. Besides Lovren, Chambers and Shaw, who else are there?

The fee obviously very inflated.

 

[Rosco]

Hansern you're a fool and i don't propose to address your post because it is just so dumb.

 

[rurikbird]

Hansern you're a fool and i don't propose to address your post because it is just so dumb.

Doesn't this post violate SCM's own posting policy? I thought attacking a poster rather than a post is never OK; even worse that it comes from a moderator.

 

[Hansern]

Doesn't this post violate SCM's own posting policy? I thought attacking a poster rather than a post is never OK; even worse that it comes from a moderator.

To be frank, he quickly turns to this sort of behaviour when people dont agree with him. I think he's actually some 14 year old sitting in his bedroom in his underpants moderating this site. Playing Football Manager while thinking he's Gods gift to fotball and every other club, staff and fans are morons.

Dont bother mate.

 

[LarryHagman]

Clearly a decent player but I'll be gutted if we spunk 50mil on him.

 

[Mystic]

Seriously gutted I got no praise for my Diagnosis: Flop closing line.

 

[Insignificance]

Thats a lot of "what ifs" that have to either be true or fall heavily to one side of the argument though.

We dont know the full extent of the injury but We'll know his full medical history regarding that injury if a transfer will indeed happen.

They sell well? We've just made one of the best transfers in years with Mane. Spurs with a great purchase of Wanyama. Clyne was a very good transfer. Value for money, every one of them. Besides Lovren, Chambers and Shaw, who else are there?

The fee obviously very inflated.

Valid points. He still point out red flags which if there are enough of them should be decisive.

 

[Rosco]

Doesn't this post violate SCM's own posting policy? I thought attacking a poster rather than a post is never OK; even worse that it comes from a moderator.

Report me.

Then report the all other posts you see that violate the policy.

Then review your comment

 

[Rosco]

To be frank, he quickly turns to this sort of behaviour when people dont agree with him. I think he's actually some 14 year old sitting in his bedroom in his underpants moderating this site. Playing Football Manager while thinking he's Gods gift to fotball and every other club, staff and fans are morons.

Dont bother mate.

@rurikbird

Again this illustrates just how stupid Hansern is.

I'm 14, but have a 10 and a half year history of posting on this site which a few of us set up after leaving KT after a number of years.

 

[rurikbird]

Report me.

Then report the all other posts you see that violate the policy.

Then review your comment

So why have the policy at all then if everyone seems to violate it with impunity? Besides, shouldn't the mods lead by example – in a good way?

 

[Rosco]

So why have the policy at all then if everyone seems to violate it with impunity? Besides, shouldn't the mods lead by example – in a good way?

I've been asking the same questions. Hansern could easily have been banned on numerous occasions had it been implemented fully.

Its not. So i might as well take advantage rather than address his usual bullshit.

 

[Hansern]

I think most knew I was talking about how you act and your behaviour. Which is clearly like a child.
You just proved my point again.

I'd love to return the name calling but that will just see me banned again, by you.

 

[Rosco]

I think most knew I was talking about how you act and your behaviour. Which is clearly like a child.
You just proved my point again.

I'd love to return the name calling but that will just see me banned again, by you.

So i've deliberately misread your post and come up with a dopey reply?
And it irks you.


Maybe you'll rethink your replies to me in light of that.

 

[Frogfish]

I wonder how much a top scout costs irrespective of whether it's an ex player type or a data scientist?

Surely it's insignificant in comparison to that of a failed transfer.

Put a world class structure in place and pay well over the odds to bring in the best.

Isn't that what FSG thought they'd done re. The Geek ?

 

[Hansern]

So i've deliberately misread your post and come up with a dopey reply?
And it irks you.


Maybe you'll rethink your replies to me in light of that.

I dont know what you've done and it certainly doesnt bother me. My replies seem to bother you. But when it shows you're wrong, like in the Can thread, you just disappear from the whole thread.

Maybe you should just grow up.

 

[keniget]

I'm inclined to side with Ross on this if for no other reason than the price tag. Surely, surely we can find someone good without having to go toe to toe with the likes of City.

In an ideal world I'd love us to be able to compete at that level but I'm concerned that if we gamble and it doesn't pay off, we're handicapping ourselves for a few years. City can buy and cast aside a Mangala or three every summer.

I know that Spurs are enemy no.1 around here these days for some strange reason but there is proof that you don't need fake it with transfer fees and wages to build a good side.

 

[Mystic]

@rurikbird
I'm 14, but have a 10 and a half year history of posting on this site which a few of us set up after leaving KT after a number of years.

No need to brag mate. I could barely dribble when I was 1!

 

[Mystic]

I'm inclined to side with Ross on this if for no other reason than the price tag. Surely, surely we can find someone good without having to go toe to toe with the likes of City.

In an ideal world I'd love us to be able to compete at that level but I'm concerned that if we gamble and it doesn't pay off, we're handicapping ourselves for a few years. City can buy and cast aside a Mangala or three every summer.

I know that Spurs are enemy no.1 around here these days for some strange reason but there is proof that you don't need fake it with transfer fees and wages to build a good side.

This is kind of the reason why I started this thread, this is exactly how I was thinking. If we're spending this kind of money on a player it should be for a player who's at the top of their game at a big club, A Vertonghen, Hummels, Azpilicueta, obviously these signings are completely unrealistic for other reasons, but thats the calibre we should be looking at when spending that money, because we can't afford to spunk so much money who to be completely honest is 50/50 as to whether he'll flop or succeed.

We should be looking for value outside the league if I'm honest, if we can get VVD for <£30million then great, if not we need to look abroad, there's plenty of value around, even if you spend big, United got Bailly this year for example who's been superb for them. We need to be smarter when we buy, and on occasions we have been, by VVD doesn't feel too smart to me.

 

[keniget]

This is kind of the reason why I started this thread, this is exactly how I was thinking. If we're spending this kind of money on a player it should be for a player who's at the top of their game at a big club, A Vertonghen, Hummels, Azpilicueta, obviously these signings are completely unrealistic for other reasons, but thats the calibre we should be looking at when spending that money, because we can't afford to spunk so much money who to be completely honest is 50/50 as to whether he'll flop or succeed.

We should be looking for value outside the league if I'm honest, if we can get VVD for <£30million then great, if not we need to look abroad, there's plenty of value around, even if you spend big, United got Bailly this year for example who's been superb for them. We need to be smarter when we buy, and on occasions we have been, by VVD doesn't feel too smart to me.

I guess the only way this makes sense is if a) he really is that good and b) we plan on capitalizing on that by signing more players who are just as good.

There is no point paying through the nose to buy a so called "proven" player if we're signing a bunch of meh maybes elsewhere.

If we think we can take a shortcut to genuine title challenge and regular CL football over the next few seasons without killing ourselves in the medium to long term, great!