Are we riding our luck?

[rurikbird]

3 goals after deflections today, 2 against United, some key penalty decisions that might not have gone our way in the past, Mahrez skying the penalty against us at home, Sturridge's miracle equalizer against Chelsea, and of course, Origi's 96th-minute goal against Everton... Be honest, to what extent do you think our record has been helped by sheer luck?

 

[JurgenKlopp]

You make your own luck. All good teams have luck. You could say the same about all he past great sides.

 

[Fabio]

3 goals after deflections today, 2 against United, some key penalty decisions that might not have gone our way in the past, Mahrez skying the penalty against us at home, Sturridge's miracle equalizer against Chelsea, and of course, Origi's 96th-minute goal against Everton... Be honest, to what extent do you think our record has been helped by sheer luck?

You make your own luck, and there's been times we've been spawny cunts...but that's because we're in the right positions, making the right choices etc.

 

[HC]

Lol, did you never see utd under Fergie ?!?

Top sides have luck , end of

 

[Woland]

Should have had a pen a minute before they scored. Lucas.gif

 

[Modo]

Lol, did you never see utd under Fergie ?!?

Top sides have luck , end of

Exactly

 

[moron]

3 goals after deflections today, 2 against United, some key penalty decisions that might not have gone our way in the past, Mahrez skying the penalty against us at home, Sturridge's miracle equalizer against Chelsea, and of course, Origi's 96th-minute goal against Everton... Be honest, to what extent do you think our record has been helped by sheer luck?

Luck is always a part of life and these football games. It is ALWAYS in play as a separate element in life - something we cannot control, but I think it shows up more on the side of those who are willing to take risks:

On the points you have mentioned:-

• Mahrez miss was his own fault - no luck involved.
• Sturridges equalizer was not a miracle because he meant it and took the shot.
• Origi's equalizer - the goal itself not a miracle but I believe VVD's shot and how it developed leading up to the goal was a miracle/luck.
• Penalty decisions - I guess it is the view of the referee that determines this, only lucky if you get one when the ref is fooled (e.g. Lamela last season)
• Deflections - can be luck if they are major deflections but balls going in goal-bound towards goal that get deflected is just the laws of basic physics with a higher statistical likelihood than balls that were off target that get deflected into goal.

I would also like to add that I think Injuries to players are the major factor where luck comes into play. City last season had hardly any during the course of the season, and you could argue that by the time we got to the CL final - we were cursed with bad luck with so few players available for midfield selection.

Just as a note of information - as part of Islamic declaration of belief - we have to declare our belief in Good Luck and Bad Luck.

 

[Dreambeliever]

We’ve had a huge amount of luck to say otherwise would be foolish but as others have said you make your own luck with pressure.

We’ve had plenty of games over the years where we didn’t get the luck.

All champions have luck so hopefully it continues for us.

 

[rurikbird]

It's really interesting though how the aforementioned "making your own luck" works. It's not nearly as simple as just creating more chances or higher-quality chances, thus increasing the odds of converting one. We've seen so many times through the years when we would put teams under relentless pressure, hit the post 2-3 times in a game and have the opposition GK put a MOM performance against us, week after week.

Now we often score when we really need it even without creating all that much. Take Burnley away – Milner rarely scores from open play, but he manages to conjure up a goal minutes after we concede the opener (from offside BTW – we were actually unlucky there) and get us out of a precarious situation. Today was the same: the 2nd half could have been torture with Palace putting 11 men behind the ball determined to hold on to the lead, instead Salah scores off a deflection minutes after the restart and the whole flow of the game changes. I don't think it's possible to explain or quantify this with stats or analytics.

Maybe it also has something to do with the so-called "killer instinct." Van Dijk's speculative shot led to the first goal today and the winner against Everton, Milner and Shaq often pop up with contributions in decisive moments and Salah is almost always the difference-maker. We've had too few players with this kind of unshakable inner confidence in the past.

 

[Dirty Sanchez]

Things just seem “lucky” when you have better players. There’s no such thing as god, divine intervention, luck. It’s all just probabilities and circumstances based on the skill we have as a team.

 

[Whaddapie]

We've had some go the other way too, don't forget... The 'off-the-line' clearance against City a few weeks back, the 'offside' goal from Mane that was disallowed against the Arse. That's 4 points we didn't get, and a 3 point swing when discussing City.

Other than the Everton goal, there's not really been that much that's beyond the pale from a football perspective... Yes, deflections can go either way, but they happen, every day - Jordan Pickford doesn't happen every day! 😉

 

[RedStar]

Today was the first game I thought we were lucky in and even then it wasnt against the run of play, we totally dominated the game and left ourselves slightly open to their pace on the counter.

 

[juniormember]

Today was the first game I thought we were lucky in and even then it wasnt against the run of play, we totally dominated the game and left ourselves slightly open to their pace on the counter.

Zaha was scary, but apart from that we were obviously miles better, only allowing 3 shots all game (but 3 goals!).
I didn’t think we were lucky but I was shit scared till the final whistle.

 

[KopRed]

Zaha was scary, but apart from that we were obviously miles better, only allowing 3 shots all game (but 3 goals!).
I didn’t think we were lucky but I was shit scared till the final whistle.

Once Zaha realised he just had to kick and run to skin Milner, he just continued doing the same and it worked everytime.

The only time it didn't work is with Camacho right at the end. Thank goodness for that.

 

[Farkmaster]

The narrative that we are lucky is largely based on the hatred of other supporters. Just as we complained about lampards billionth ricochet, jammy united, etc. If we are ajudged to be incredibly lucky come may, that will be perfect.

As an aside, that handball by robbo was lovely. Didn't know he had it in him.

 

[The Nomad]

Title winning sides win lucky and win ugly at certain points of the season.

Now I'm not saying we will win it. But games like today are the ones we've fucked up en-route to losing the league before.

 

[Hansern]

As others have said, I think you to a point make your own luck. But its surely a mix of having better players, being in the right situations and as Klopp has preached for 3 years taking advantage of these moments that happen during games.
The 3-2 goal yesterday must have felt like a needle in the eye for every City, Everton, Utd and Spurs fan out there. It was a Utd goal from the Ferige era if I ever did see one.

But ridning our luck or not. We’ve got 60 points after 23 games. Thats a club record. Only 3 teams in the history of the league have had more points after 23 games.

We’re a fantastically good football side this season.

 

[keniget]

Yeah, course we are... and long may it continue.

 

[Modo]

It's not just luck, we've been very fortunate in the games mentioned above but more often than not we're getting those breaks because we're scaring the living daylights out of our opponents.
The panic Firmino, Mane and especially Salah causes in the final third leads to our opponents making mistakes and us capitalising on them.

 

[binomial]

We have been lucky quite often tbf, but last few seasons have felt like the world has been against us so it's been due.

0 pens last season or something, we've already have around half a dozen this.

Deflections and Keeper errors going for us but that's us forcing the play with our pressure.

We have had some unlucky moments as well, Townsend handball, Kompany red on Mo being missed, Countless injuries, hitting the woodwork (Keita v Burnley, Shaqiri v Wolves)

 

[Markeh]

Was it 08/09 we finished just behind united and that kid who has since returned to footballing wilderness Macheda popped up to score a good goal against villa and a deflection against Sunderland. Turning 2 points into 6 which i recall making a huge difference.

Bit of luck involved there and probably a lot more went on that I don't remember. All teams get it and it goes both ways, it does seem we've had more good than bad this season.

 

[doctor_mac]

Was it 08/09 we finished just behind united and that kid who has since returned to footballing wilderness Macheda popped up to score a good goal against villa and a deflection against Sunderland. Turning 2 points into 6 which i recall making a huge difference.

Bit of luck involved there and probably a lot more went on that I don't remember. All teams get it and it goes both ways, it does seem we've had more good than bad this season.

Macheda barely scored again for them. Or for anyone else.

 

[Portly]

This thread reminds me of the quote attributed to Gary Player: "The harder I train, the luckier I get."

 

[doctor_mac]

Last season the stats showed we suffered more than any other team from points lost just to poor reffing decisions (penos not given, penos given against, off side goals against, all that jazz). Manu were the luckiest. It is about time things swung in our favour. We could have had a couple of hand ball decisions for penos yesterday, so I think that more than balances out Robbo's sleight of hand.

 

[FoxForceFive]

I hate this luck bollocks.

I used to hate it even when people would say it about Utd & 'jammy goals' or the amount of penalties they'd get.

If you have quality players, you create a lot of chances, you spend longer in the box & you take a lot of shots, then you'll have a higher chance of getting more deflected goals & winning more penalties.

It's just common fucking sense.

Of course there's pure fucking fluke, like the Pickford blunder, but if we hadn't have put them under so much pressure that we VVD could fire another long range effort then it doesn't happen, so even that pure fluke is due in part to just being better.

 

[Markeh]

Macheda barely scored again for them. Or for anyone else.

Yup for every Div or Sturridge goal people claim to be lucky there's a Macheda or a Solksjaer or a Sheringham.

 

[Frogfish]

Last season the stats showed we suffered more than any other team from points lost just to poor reffing decisions (penos not given, penos given against, off side goals against, all that jazz). Manu were the luckiest. It is about time things swung in our favour. We could have had a couple of hand ball decisions for penos yesterday, so I think that more than balances out Robbo's sleight of hand.

I'm still not sure when this handball happened ? I've played back the 4th goal umpteen times and his hand never ever went near the ball (when he kept the ball in touch) so when did this happen ?

 

[moron]

I'm still not sure when this handball happened ? I've played back the 4th goal umpteen times and his hand never ever went near the ball (when he kept the ball in touch) so when did this happen ?

In the replay on MOTD is shows clearly he touched it at belly height to keep the ball in play..which allowed him keep the move going so Mane got his 4th.

 

[Judge Jules]

You can bet your boots EVERY team which wins the title gets away with something like this at some point(s) during the season. Long may it continue. 😎

 

[mark1975]

I still worry about the front three to be honest. Statistically I'm sure it looks great, but I don't think Firmino or Mane have been as reliable or as prolific as last year and the only thing we have beyond the first choice attack is Shaqiri. Lallana has had injury problems and is struggling to force his way back in (and is hardly prolific either), Sturridge is completely unsuited to the way we play and has clearly pissed off the management lately with his half arsed displays. Origi will get goals but lacks confidence and quality..

So the attack to me still seems slightly off the boil in comparison to last season and with the games coming thick and fast in the latter part of the season, we really are relying on our key players remaining fit and the core 14 players or so carrying us through. We need a quality attacker in the Summer and a few defenders.

You make your own luck, which is great, but you can't rely on it forever. There are times when we really have got the rub of the green and you have to expect that at some point it'll go the other way and we'll need more than luck.