Nice little buffer you have. You can actually sit tight and wait for the right bets....but that's obviously no fun...
Betting 2015/16 1% per day challenge
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Most season's that I've tried this I have struggled to find enough "certainties" to bet on but for some reason this season the fixtures have been kinder. I was helped a lot by Rangers early season form and in recent weeks City, Chelsea and Arsenal have all had very easy home games. I was looking very eagerly towards the Arsenal v Sunderland match this weekend as a potential "full bank" bet but now with all Arsenal's injuries I might give the game a miss altogether.
The 2 games I'm looking at now are us not to lose at Newcastle and Dagenham to win their cup match against a non-league team but neither of these bets will be more than £50 liability.
I'm on week 15 but only a few quid off £400 which is the week 20 target and technically the half way point i.e. £100 > £400 = 4 times the original bank and in the next 20 weeks if I can keep winning I'd turn £400 > £1,600 BUT it never goes as smoothly as that and by week 20 I could be bust.
55 minutes 1-0 to Kiev but I'm covering the draw now; my position is now +£7 Kiev, +£4 Draw, -£44 Tel Aviv
Yeah, thank christ for Loic Remy although in fairness Chelsea could and should have scored at least another one with the chances they had. It's gonna be tricky over the next few weeks as I'm gonna be in Czech Republic for 12 days from tomorrow and will be very drunk most of the time. Added to that, I haven't sorted wifi out in our apartment yet so will have to head to the pub with the laptop for all the games. Hopefully the alcohol/wifi issues don't adversely affect my betting.
I've still got in-and-around £400 in the kitty and I reckon the odds on me actually getting to £1,600 in this fashion are about 5/1 or 6/1 so the temptation to bung the £400 on a 3/1 shot in a "death or glory" one bet scenario is tempting BUT that is sort of against the point of this challenge.
This week was a lesson in how difficult it is betting on short price "certainties"........................
Barcelona were 1/14 before kick off against Deportivo and were 1/200 with 20 minutes to go and 2-0 up but only managed a 2-2 draw.
Rangers were 1/10 before kick off against Morton and were 1/40 after they went 1-0 up but had to rely on a late goal to snatch a 2-2 draw.
Other short priced favourites such as Real Madrid, Liverpool, Middlesbro and Hibs also fucked up. Putting the whole bank on someone at 3/1 is very tempting 🙂
Instead of a weekly target, why not change it to a per 5 bet target or a per 10 bet target. You don't really have to reach the target in one exact year or season. That's just an arbitrary pressure you're placing upon yourself. If you look at it as making 1% per 5 bets, then you can focus on picking bets you want to pick, rather than being forced to pick them.
I think it's the target that makes this challenge interesting though. This challenge is not my main focus regarding my betting season, it's just a bit of fun so I don't want to over analyse the whys and wherefores of the challenge or change the rules.
You're right about the arbitrary pressure though which is largely down to the arbitrary nature of the fixture list. Sometimes I look ahead at the fixtures for a few weeks and notice that there's a lack of decent "certainties". I know that common sense would suggest that I limit my betting exposure during these lean times even if it means falling behind the target but that's easier said than done.
I'm definitely gonna have my first losing week on this challenge for quite some time so hopefully this will sober me up a bit and I can get back to a more cautious, safety first approach.
Good instincts. When you lose money you should take less risk, but usually gamblers do the opposite, and take more risk in order to make up for a loss. But of course to keep up with the challenge, there will come a time when you have no choice but to roll the dice.
How quickly do the bookies change their odds intra-game? When a goal or an important injury happens? Can u get the bet on quicker than they price it into the spread?
Say its Liverpool v Everton. You wait for a Liverpool goal. Put an immediate bet on them to win. Wait for the odds to spread, then hedge your position with a bet on Everton to not lose, at a now better rate.
Is there enough latency to do that, and do the odds shift enough to give you a riskless payout?
Say its Liverpool v Everton. You wait for a Liverpool goal. Put an immediate bet on them to win. Wait for the odds to spread, then hedge your position with a bet on Everton to not lose, at a now better rate.
Is there enough latency to do that, and do the odds shift enough to give you a riskless payout?
You can't react quickly enough as there is anything upto a 30 second delay from real-time to TV coverage. Sometimes it can ruin a game; if you're watching a game and have the betting page open......sometimes as a team begins to attack Betfair will "suspend" betting which nearly always means something big has happened i.e. a goal, red card, penalty etc.
What happens sometimes though is that after a major event (goal, red card etc) the market re-opens and the early punters factor in the events wrongly and if you are a good judge of football and the teams playing that particular game you can get some great prices locked in if you move quickly enough before the market re-positions.
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