If Rodri gets injured and is out for most of the season, they cold go through their own wobble
The wobble
- Thread starter MomoWASright
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They'll just play Fernandinho there.
So that’s £110m, 4 players to replace in the squad, 2 of them homegrown and that’s before we even start to address the issue of replacing Gini or that additional forward we need.
We end up either weakening the squad by reducing the size or bringing in players no better than the ones we sold.
Why not just keep them, in that case, take out the loan and bring in a £60m player.
Of course the issue is - the owners aren’t going to give us £60m or make themselves liable for any loan - therefore we have to go into debt at a time when income has reduced and the debt gets loaded onto the club - which is what Utd do.
I’m sure there’s good reasons why we might not want to run up additional debt and load it on the club.
3 of the 4 players I've mentioned are injury prone and on high wages.
Would you swap the above 4 I mentioned we sell, for the following 3?
Bossuma from Brighton or Zakaria (will be free in the summer)
Max arrons from Norwich
Emmanuel Dennis from Watford or Christian Nkonku from Leipzig
Now to your second point. If we don't reinvigorate the club, then we will be doing what Arsenal are doing now playing catch up
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Many ways to read these stats, but one way would be to say that if our XG is over 2.50 we win the game, if it's below 2.50 we do not. Something was off in the Leicester game, like Klopp said, even though we had the better chances. Don't think Spurs and Leicester games alone are enough to talk about a "trend," other than to say that we are worse off, once again, when Thiago and Fabinho are not starting in midfield together.
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No matter what statistics you choose to look at, the data suggests Liverpool deserved to win against Leicester City on Tuesday evening.
The visitors won the shot count by 21 to six, the on target tallies by four to one and somehow contrived to waste five clear-cut chances.
Indeed, that’s the highest total of Opta-defined big chances any team has had without scoring in the Premier League this season.
The Reds’ total of 2.73 expected goals (per Understat) is the highest they’ve had in the 33 league games under Jurgen Klopp in which they’ve failed to find the net too.
While such numbers mean that the loss could theoretically be labelled as an unfortunate accident, it continued a theme which has weighed Liverpool down this season.
Their other defeat occurred at West Ham, a match in which David Moyes’ side only had seven shots. Granted, they scored via an own goal too, but they didn’t create many opportunities.
Chelsea only had six goal attempts when claiming a point at Anfield – though playing a half with 10 men obviously blunted their attacking ambitions – while Brighton had nine shots when drawing 2-2 there.
Liverpool dominate the majority of their matches and have only been outshot once (by Manchester City) in the league this season. It isn’t a surprise that most teams haven’t had too many goal attempts against them.
Nonetheless, it does seem odd that they’ve only allowed an average of 8.9 shots across their five draws and two defeats. Have they been unlucky to drop so many points?
Misfortune has clearly played a part to some extent, along with their own wastefulness in front of goal.
But these issues afflict all teams from time-to-time, such is the random nature of the beautiful game we all love.
The issue for the Reds is not the number of shots which they allow – only City have conceded fewer – but rather the quality of the chances when they come along.
Opta’s clear-cut chance metric relates to shots where you would expect the attacker to score, when they are clean through on goal or firing from close range. Penalties are included too.
Chances such as these are vitally important. They only account for approximately 15 percent of total shots, but they result in around 57 percent of goals which are scored.
And this is where Liverpool have fallen down.
In the seven matches they have failed to win, 26 percent of opposition shots have been deemed to be clear-cut chances.
While this is extreme, the Reds average for the season as a whole is still at an above average level of 16.6 percent.
Only four teams in the division have worse figures, and they’re all in the bottom seven for goals conceded at the time of writing.
The more advanced data only highlights this further. Per FBRef, only two of the other 97 teams in Europe’s top five leagues face a higher expected goals per shot average (excluding penalties).
While this is a problem, it’s also the price Liverpool pay for their aggressive, high pressing style.
More cautious, deeper defending teams like Burnley and Wolves allow a lower proportion of clear-cut chances but don’t attack with anything like the intensity the Reds have to in order to aim for the heights they crave.
And this is reflected in the offensive data. Liverpool are currently leading the Premier League for percentage of shots which are clear-cut chances (at 20 percent) and are joint-third in the big leagues for expected goals per shot.
They also have one of the best sweeper goalkeepers around in Alisson Becker. But it is telling that the Brazilian is making more defensive actions outside his penalty area than in past seasons.
Teams are getting through Liverpool’s back four slightly more often than they were and it’s resulting in high quality chances.
The Reds shouldn’t change their style when it has served them so well in recent years but further results like those seen at West Ham and Leicester cannot be ruled out.
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So in a nutshell you propose we sell....Trent, Virgil,Salah,Mane...and if that's not enough look at selling Robbo, Allison,Jota and Fabinho....ahem...may be throw those names into a pot and pick out 2 or 3 out and flog them...and what's really worrying is that you are serious...!
No... I’m suggesting that if we want to fund a rebuild we need to sell ONE of the players that will return enough to allow us to buy 2-3 top quality players as opposed to selling 3-4 squad players to fund 1 top quality player.
Refer to the Coutinho transfer if you need an example.
Trent, Virgil, Mo and Mane ah are the ones that will return the most relative to the likely cost of a replacement.
Sell one of those and you fund a replacement + at least another player
We could sell a Joe Gomez or an Ox, but the cost of a replacement is likely to exceed the fee we receive.
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As you suggest, I'm hoping that we can sell both Mo and Salah for around $400m. Or maybe we keep one of those two and just settle for $200m.
It’ll be like that time we sold Rahem and Sterling...
Just adding some information to your post. According to this: https://www.goal.com/en/news/salah-...iverpool-january-transfer/blte0e7a5332807fe8f
Salah, Mane, Firmino, Ox, Keita will be in the final year of their contract in May. Milner's contract ends in May.
Lot of big decisions in terms of whose contract to extend, whom to let go and at what point. I will be surprised if Keita and Ox's contract will be extended. I don't think we can rely on Mane and Firmino for another year. At the same time, I will be surprised if we are given money to make two to three midfield signings and a couple of attackers over the next two transfer windows.
And we still don't have an adequate backup for TAA.
I could see Ox getting an extension - he’s still only 28 and the homegrown angle kind of plays to his favour. He has his uses as a squad player.
Firmino I can see getting an extension - again useful as a squad member.
Milner, we might squeeze another year out of - Jones & Neco have another season before they need to be registered in the squad of 25.
Salah, I hope re-signs.
Mane, I’m torn on, but the fact that there’s been no noise on his contract suggests we’ll either sell if the right offer comes in this summer or let him run his contract down and do a Gini.
Keita... who cares - £20-£30m if we’re lucky, barely enough for a top quality replacement.
Ox. I dont see him getting an extension if not for the homegrown quota.
Firmino is on 150-200 K per week. Just don't see him getting an extension on that money. Unless he is willing to take a salary cut.
Oh yeah... Ox would be gone if not for homegrown - if he stays fit, we might get a decent fee for him...
Is Cantwell an option - seems to have gone off the boil, not getting a regular start and rumours he’s not putting in much effort in training - but young, homegrown and has some talent.
Norwich will sell apparently - last year if his contract but Norwich have an option to extend for a year.
Maybe more of a “Villa” type signing.
Someone mentioned Max Aarons as well - don’t mind that idea as RB cover instead of Neco if we can get a reasonable fee for
Doubt it’d happen though.
No chance given form, contract status and finances of other teams.
Our only hope would be PSG but we wouldn’t get enough to fund a rebuild without the owners having to find a lot of cash from elsewhere.
We’ve left everything too late… but then we’ve been warning against this for years now.
Hmmm.
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