Poll Strategy - what should it be?

[keniget]

Well sure - as I've said, I'm torn. But I just wonder if it's a cop out.

I mean, you're a football junkie, so why not address one of the original questions: is there an unavoidable trade-off between selling Agger and getting long-term value and upsetting the defence in the short term? £20m looks a brilliant deal for him, but it'd effectively mean having a new defence: would that have a major impact on our chances of getting 4th regardless of getting in a quality replacement and if so is it actually cost-effective?

I think the answer to those questions is always the same - depends who you end up buying.

In terms of timing, I actually think now is the perfect time to sell Agger if we are planning on doing so at some point. We've got a new goalkeeper and a new CB. We are not going to have the benefit of a settled defence or players that are used to playing with Agger anyways, so we may as well take the hit now and get it done providing the opportunity is there, i.e. Barca make us a great offer.

There is no point trying to establish a partnership between Agger and whoever this season and then selling him a year later and having to go through that process again.

 

[peterhague]

I think the answer to those questions is always the same - depends who you end up buying.

In terms of timing, I actually think now is the perfect time to sell Agger if we are planning on doing so at some point. We've got a new goalkeeper and a new CB. We are not going to have the benefit of a settled defence or players that are used to playing with Agger anyways, so we may as well take the hit now and get it done providing the opportunity is there, i.e. Barca make us a great offer.

There is no point trying to establish a partnership between Agger and whoever this season and then selling him a year later and having to go through that process again.

Good point about the loss of Carra and Reina.

Would you also then sell Johnson as well on that basis, if a decent offer came in? I know you said you would in that other thread, but in the context of 3 other changes to the defensive unit? And is it possible that *such* an upheaval, combined with the gap to Spurs and Arsenal that we already have to make up, means 4th place this year is almost impossible?

I know these aren't questions that can be easily answered... I still think they need asking, though.

 

[tombrown]

If in doubt, just win the league. We can talk about long term strategy after that

I abstain from the poll as there isn't a "win the league" option

 

[Jack D Rips]

Yeah, I think perceived lack of ambition is a bit of a problem. All I'd really say there is maybe that would be balanced quite a lot because I'm not actually advocating not spending money. I'd spend as much as we can on the right players. Let's just say, for argument's sake, we sold Suarez and bought Luis Muriel, that Ukrainian dude, and say, Eriksen. Just let's say that's feasible in terms of getting them to sign. Would we necessarily be seen as lacking ambition?

In fairness Peter, that looks like a combination of both options to me.

 

[peterhague]

In fairness Peter, that looks like a combination of both options to me.

Is it? How old is that Ukrainian? Sorry, thought he was in the 20-24 age group?

 

[Jack D Rips]

Is it? How old is that Ukrainian? Sorry, thought he was in the 20-24 age group?

Thats why I said a combination. It would certainly be building for the future, but with those two in, I would give us a great chance of making CL qualification.

 

[keniget]

Good point about the loss of Carra and Reina.

Would you also then sell Johnson as well on that basis, if a decent offer came in? I know you said you would in that other thread, but in the context of 3 other changes to the defensive unit? And is it possible that *such* an upheaval, combined with the gap to Spurs and Arsenal that we already have to make up, means 4th place this year is almost impossible?

I know these aren't questions that can be easily answered... I still think they need asking, though.

Well, I think it's easy to look at it only from one angle - how much money can we make?

Let's say we get a 25M offer for Agger this summer, which is very attractive as it's probably unlikely to come about again. What if the right person isn't available for us to replace him with? Do we still sell and make do for a year? Do we buy in a temporary stop-gap and then have to deal with that situation in the future?

I know we've been conditioned in the last few years to look at the financial bottom line more and more but what if doing absolutely the right thing in that respect for an individual player (getting rid of a high earner for a last chance big money fee) is actually more damaging to our long-term plans than doing the 'wrong' thing?

 

[keniget]

Hypothetical scenario, which isn't all that far-fetched:

Management see Wisdom as the future of our defence but believe he's not ready yet and needs a couple years to develop.

You could then make a case for saying that having someone like Agger around as opposed to messing about trying to find some stop-gap or spending big money on another young prospect further down the line in his progress.

We may lose 10-15M on Agger and spend a bit more on wages, but perhaps we get that back and more from Wisdom.

 

[Modo]

Are we playing in Europe? No. So the answer is pretty simple. We should focus on the premier league.

 

[Gerry_A_Trick]

Are we playing in Europe? No. So the answer is pretty simple. We should focus on the premier league.

What question are you answering?

 

[Silver Sean]

We are Liverpool.
We should go always be going for the title.
That's a massive and highly improbable ask – therefore we must prepare for the fact that nicking 4th would be a great step forward.
There are 38 games this season for which the manager and players should prepare, concentrate and give everything.
Treat every single league game as what it is – fighting for the right to be feared once more, to get back where we belong and give the players who are already here no reason to want to leave, and attract better players to join us.

 

[Rosco]

Johnson, Agger, Skrtel, Suarez - all open to offers.

I don't like going for 17 and 18 year olds (unless I'm on the pull with Piedro). Most of them are still too much of an unknown quantity, the ones that are known are often overly hyped and overpriced.

I'd rather we focus on players in the 20-23 year old range who've got a bit of first team football at a decent level under their belt.

Players who've shown they can cope, they don't necessarily have to have excelled, done well in the champions league or done out of this world things.

Players with talent, who are still a little bit under the radar and are likely to keep getting better.

 

[red_maradona]

To win.

 

[peterhague]

Thats why I said a combination. It would certainly be building for the future, but with those two in, I would give us a great chance of making CL qualification.

But I'm not saying that we should buy players to guarantee we don't get 4th! Rather that perhaps we shouldn't be buying or holding on to players who'd increase those chances at the cost of longer term squad value eg Soldado.

 

[peterhague]

Well, I think it's easy to look at it only from one angle - how much money can we make?

Let's say we get a 25M offer for Agger this summer, which is very attractive as it's probably unlikely to come about again. What if the right person isn't available for us to replace him with? Do we still sell and make do for a year? Do we buy in a temporary stop-gap and then have to deal with that situation in the future?

I know we've been conditioned in the last few years to look at the financial bottom line more and more but what if doing absolutely the right thing in that respect for an individual player (getting rid of a high earner for a last chance big money fee) is actually more damaging to our long-term plans than doing the 'wrong' thing?

I agree, that's exactly the sort of thing I'm getting at. I think it's a very fine balance.

@Rosco is there anywhere you know that's done an analysis of 17-18 year old wonderkid type signings? Personally I'd tend to agree with you that it's best just to go for 20-24, but I'm still not totally sure just how much of a gamble those younger ones are. I mean, obviously, some will be better than others, but is there evidence that the hit-rate is so much lower? I suppose even in that group there are levels of hype - Walcott as opposed to Sturridge, say, so I'm really thinking about the really genuinely hyped ones: Bale, Walcott, Phil Jones, Hazard. Yeah, I know that list probably reads a bit weird btw.

 

[Modo]

What question are you answering?

We've got the upper hand by not playing in Europe. So go for the title. We've already rebuilt the squad.

 

[Rosco]

I agree, that's exactly the sort of thing I'm getting at. I think it's a very fine balance.

@Rosco is there anywhere you know that's done an analysis of 17-18 year old wonderkid type signings? Personally I'd tend to agree with you that it's best just to go for 20-24, but I'm still not totally sure just how much of a gamble those younger ones are. I mean, obviously, some will be better than others, but is there evidence that the hit-rate is so much lower? I suppose even in that group there are levels of hype - Walcott as opposed to Sturridge, say, so I'm really thinking about the really genuinely hyped ones: Bale, Walcott, Phil Jones, Hazard. Yeah, I know that list probably reads a bit weird btw.

I'm not aware of any study.

Are you talking about the success rate of players who are already playing first team football at 17/18 or just in general ?

 

[tony]

Johnson, Agger, Skrtel, Suarez - all open to offers.

I don't like going for 17 and 18 year olds (unless I'm on the pull with Piedro). Most of them are still too much of an unknown quantity, the ones that are known are often overly hyped and overpriced.

I'd rather we focus on players in the 20-23 year old range who've got a bit of first team football at a decent level under their belt.

Players who've shown they can cope, they don't necessarily have to have excelled, done well in the champions league or done out of this world things.

Players with talent, who are still a little bit under the radar and are likely to keep getting better.

Sounds like common sense, only problem is every club in football is looking for those players

 

[Red Mullet]

We are Liverpool.
We should go always be going for the title.
That's a massive and highly improbable ask – therefore we must prepare for the fact that nicking 4th would be a great step forward.
There are 38 games this season for which the manager and players should prepare, concentrate and give everything.
Treat every single league game as what it is – fighting for the right to be feared once more, to get back where we belong and give the players who are already here no reason to want to leave, and attract better players to join us.

This is an intent, not a strategy.

How are we going to achieve this?

 

[peterhague]

I'm not aware of any study.

Are you talking about the success rate of players who are already playing first team football at 17/18 or just in general ?

Basically talking about those very highly rated players in that rough age category. Players that are more than just good prospects like our own Rossiter or Ojo etc. Obviously it's not always easy to draw limits, but not the likes of Sterling or Pennant doing great things at 14/15, probably the ones who've at least a few first team appearances and look very promising.

Walcott would qualify at 16, also Rooney at 16, Bale at 17, probably also Zaha and Smalling at slightly older ages. Guess would be mostly in the £10-20m price range at current prices.

 

[Aidan O' Neill]

Err what have they achieved? 5th I think and they re going to lose their best player and the german league is very different.
Dortmund has the biggest fanbase in Germany and they won the CL 15 years ago, its not like they re coming out of nowhere..

They were nearly bankrupt about 7-8 years, so they did come back from nearly nowhere.

 

[Rosco]

Sounds like common sense, only problem is every club in football is looking for those players

Well not everyone is looking for those players - and we can outspend about 98% of the clubs in Europe anyway.

 

[Modo]

It's all so simple isn't it.
We sell, we replace and then everything is just like it was before.

It's a bit like the underpants gnomes in South park.

 

[Silver Sean]

This is an intent, not a strategy.

How are we going to achieve this?

By winning enough games to get into the top four.

 

[Red Mullet]

By winning enough games to get into the top four.

Using youth and selling players just beyond their prime?

Adapting a pass and move footballing style or play the hoofing game?

Change game tactics dependent upon the opposition or always play the same style?

 

[Jerry Laser]

Was the FA Cup going to change so that it was now an entry to the CL preliminary rounds at some point? If so then we really must try to win this when this occurs.

 

[Silver Sean]

Using youth and selling players just beyond their prime?

Adapting a pass and move footballing style or play the hoofing game?

Change game tactics dependent upon the opposition or always play the same style?

You do know that we can have no influence on any of that don't you? We are just supporters. We can only support. I suggest that all those involved, earning millions to represent us on and off the pitch, do everything to best of their ability. If they do this we will have a shout at 4th. It doesn't matter if I believe we should play toddlers wrapped in marshmallow.

 

[Red Mullet]

You do know that we can have no influence on any of that don't you? We are just supporters. We can only support. I suggest that all those involved, earning millions to represent us on and off the pitch, do everything to best of their ability. If they do this we will have a shout at 4th. It doesn't matter if I believe we should play toddlers wrapped in marshmallow.

Very true, but it's a theoretical question as if you're in the position to influence it.

I'm not so sure about marshmallows, I was thinking more along the lines of cotton wool but we can have the debate!

 

[Silver Sean]

Very true, but it's a theoretical question as if you're in the position to influence it.

I'm not so sure about marshmallows, I was thinking more along the lines of cotton wool but we can have the debate!

OK, well theoretically I believe that we are moving in the right direction. We have to cut our cloth accordingly as the owners were never going to splurge like they did before.
But we do need a top quality midfielder and CB in my opinion. In a perfect world Real Madrid or someone else abroad would spunk 50 mill on Suarez and we could buy two good players. As a team without European football and no chance of winning the title we can only attract certain players, so getting in young, hungry ones seems a good plan.
Hope tells me we have a shot at 4th if we don't sell Suarez to Arsehole FC. Pessimism tells me we will be 10 points off 4th by Christmas.

 

[Rosco]

Basically talking about those very highly rated players in that rough age category. Players that are more than just good prospects like our own Rossiter or Ojo etc. Obviously it's not always easy to draw limits, but not the likes of Sterling or Pennant doing great things at 14/15, probably the ones who've at least a few first team appearances and look very promising.

Walcott would qualify at 16, also Rooney at 16, Bale at 17, probably also Zaha and Smalling at slightly older ages. Guess would be mostly in the £10-20m price range at current prices.

How about look at the Premiership for the last decade and see how 17/18 year olds who played fared in the longer term ?

I don't know if there's an easy way to get that list but I haven't got time to compile it now