Poll Strategy - what should it be?

[peterhague]

OK, this is kind of being talked about incidentally in other threads, but it's a bit of an obsession of mine so am seeing if it's worth having a dedicated one.

In principle I'd always prefer to concentrate resources on the future, so would sell the likes of Agger, Johnson, Suarez et al. But I have to admit I'm torn because that CL money seems so close in some ways and so far in others. Arsenal look in a mess to me. I hadn't realised until recently how weak their squad is, and they've focused so much energy on getting Suarez that I'd genuinely wonder where they'd go if we held firm. Tbh I think if we keep Suarez and add this attacker we seem to want and maybe Papadopoulos too, I think we'd stand a decent chance of overtaking them.

Spurs look stronger, so that's another complication. But Bale will go - can they spend that amount of money effectively at this stage? Again, not at all sure about that.

Is there a middle way? Say we sold Agger and Johnson for sound financial reasons, can they be replaced effectively both in the short term and the long term? We might be able to swap Agger for Papadopoulos and even make a profit, but is there only so much change a back 4 can stand before there'll be significant problems - enough to kill any chance of finishing 4th this season? But then we'll probably never get another offer like that for him again.


Tbh it's a really tough one. I think I'd go for the long term. I think that has a high chance of leaving us with a very strong squad in 4 or 5 years' time. The other option I'm afraid leaves us with a high chance of being absolutely nowhere by that point.

So, there you have it. I'd sell Agger, Johnson, and Skrtel. Suarez too if we get £50m from Arsenal. Reinvest in the best 17-24 year olds we can possibly attract. What would you do?

 

[Ryan]

I only read your last line cos the rest looks dull as shit.

But anyway, I agree 100%.

 

[Frogfish]

Go for CL qualification. As time goes on all the better players on our books will want to leave us since we will have gone X years without CL qualification, and ambitious players (which should mean all good-high quality players), players that could strengthen our squad, will no longer see us as a viable option if they want CL exposure.

If we don't keep pace with Arsenal & Spurs, even if we just miss out for a year or two, then we will become redundant.

 

[Squiggles]

Am I alone in thinking Rodgers should have never gone on this tour and left first team affairs to Colin Pascoe whilst he sorted out all this shit.

Seeing him 'ringing the changes' against some shite Norwegian team whilst our whole squad needs restructuring just seems a massive waste.

 

[Dahuge]

I'd go all out for CL qualification...We aren't in Europe, we play the younger players in the league cup anyway and that leaves the FA cup so it isn't as though the players will be knackered...There should be no reason why we can't go all out for CL qualification.

Whether we have the players to do it remains to be seen.

 

[peterhague]

Go for CL qualification. As time goes on all the better players on our books will want to leave us since we will have gone X years without CL qualification, and ambitious players (which should mean all good-high quality players), players that could strengthen our squad, will no longer see us as a viable option if they want CL exposure.

If we don't keep pace with Arsenal & Spurs, even if we just miss out for a year or two, then we will become redundant.

Yeah but what happens if we put all our (inadequate) resources into competing with them, and fail, as is likely, and have an even weaker squad in 2 or 3 years? How redundant are we then?

 

[Frogfish]

Am I alone in thinking Rodgers should have never gone on this tour and left first team affairs to Colin Pascoe whilst he sorted out all this shit.

Seeing him 'ringing the changes' against some shite Norwegian team whilst our whole squad needs restructuring just seems a massive waste.

Do you honestly think there is something he could be doing back at his desk in L1 that he hasn't already done ?

 

[Gerry_A_Trick]

Long term is obviously the way to go, the problem with that is, if you're not in the CL you can only really get players who are from the lesser leagues, or have not played in the CL yet. So with that in mind, we won't be splashing out much more than 20m on one player until we are back in the CL(if we even do then), those players won't want to come to us.

Signing 2 or 3 players for about 10m that are under 23, and one for about 20m every year is what I'd do, hoping that at least one of them turns into a 40-50m player(Coutinho potentially our next one), so you can keep ticking over, and one more turns into a 20-30m player and then you're improving. Sell the poorer ones within a season or two when they are still young enough to get a decent return, and sell the better ones at around 26/27/28 to get maximum profit, preferably right after they've had a great season. You get about 3-4 years out of the better players, so all going well we would have 6-8 players at any time that are worth 20-50m, the rest of the team made up with existing players and older players that are relatively cheap. I'd sell any player at any stage for the right money, the only exception being if we truly were title contenders, which is probably at least 4-5 years away.

Finishing 4th will happen, and will happen consistently, if we deal with transfers correctly. If we put the right system in place now, which it looks like we are trying to do, then we'll be great shape in a few years time. Then CL qualification should become more of a formality than a challenge.

 

[Le Chacal]

You cant build for the future without CL money...

 

[Frogfish]

Yeah but what happens if we put all our (inadequate) resources into competing with them, and fail, as is likely, and have an even weaker squad in 2 or 3 years? How redundant are we then?

Damned if we do and damned if we don't .... but at least by going for it now (whilst Arsenal are relatively weak and Spurs will be greatly weakened by the lose of Bale) we have what will possibly be our best chance for the next few years.
City, Chelsea and United have the money to be out of sight, Arsenal & Spurs don't and by denying them CL football we become a more attractive proposition, as well as being better funded. 2 or 3 years from now chasing them down may just not be feasible, and even that's assuming we can hold on to players who see us as a hopeless cause as far as CL football is concerned.

 

[Mamma Mia]

Long term is obviously the way to go, the problem with that is, if you're not in the CL you can only really get players who are from the lesser leagues, or have not played in the CL yet. So with that in mind, we won't be splashing out much more than 20m on one player until we are back in the CL(if we even do then), those players won't want to come to us.

Signing 2 or 3 players for about 10m that are under 23, and one for about 20m every year is what I'd do, hoping that at least one of them turns into a 40-50m player(Coutinho potentially our next one), so you can keep ticking over, and one more turns into a 20-30m player and then you're improving. Sell the poorer ones within a season or two when they are still young enough to get a decent return, and sell the better ones at around 26/27/28 to get maximum profit, preferably right after they've had a great season. You get about 3-4 years out of the better players, so all going well we would have 6-8 players at any time that are worth 20-50m, the rest of the team made up with existing players and older players that are relatively cheap. I'd sell any player at any stage for the right money, the only exception being if we truly were title contenders, which is probably at least 4-5 years away.

Finishing 4th will happen, and will happen consistently, if we deal with transfers correctly. If we put the right system in place now, which it looks like we are trying to do, then we'll be great shape in a few years time. Then CL qualification should become more of a formality than a challenge.

And don't forget to train when the arrow is red!

 

[Squiggles]

Do you honestly think there is something he could be doing back at his desk in L1 that he hasn't already done ?

Impossible to say, but I think it's a very real possibility.

The signings and selling of players is the most important part of his job, and given how we've now got a huge amount left to sort out in three weeks, I think it would have been better if he stayed at Melwood. We haven't been very productive in the last two or three weeks, and we might resent that a few weeks into September.

 

[Frogfish]

Long term is obviously the way to go, the problem with that is, if you're not in the CL you can only really get players who are from the lesser leagues, or have not played in the CL yet. So with that in mind, we won't be splashing out much more than 20m on one player until we are back in the CL(if we even do then), those players won't want to come to us.

Signing 2 or 3 players for about 10m that are under 23, and one for about 20m every year is what I'd do, hoping that at least one of them turns into a 40-50m player(Coutinho potentially our next one), so you can keep ticking over, and one more turns into a 20-30m player and then you're improving. Sell the poorer ones within a season or two when they are still young enough to get a decent return, and sell the better ones at around 26/27/28 to get maximum profit, preferably right after they've had a great season. You get about 3-4 years out of the better players, so all going well we would have 6-8 players at any time that are worth 20-50m, the rest of the team made up with existing players and older players that are relatively cheap. I'd sell any player at any stage for the right money, the only exception being if we truly were title contenders, which is probably at least 4-5 years away.

So effectively what you are saying is we become more of a selling club than we are now ... which will not get us into the CL (as Henry knows with his "we don't want to sell out best players" quote this week).

 

[peterhague]

Damned if we do and damned if we don't .... but at least by going for it now (whilst Arsenal are relatively weak and Spurs will be greatly weakened by the lose of Bale) we have what will possibly be our best chance for the next few years.
City, Chelsea and United have the money to be out of sight, Arsenal & Spurs don't and by denying them CL football we become a more attractive proposition, as well as being better funded. 2 or 3 years from now chasing them down may just not be feasible, and even that's assuming we can keep on to players who see us as a hopeless cause as far as CL football is concerned.

It's worth noting that Spurs have got where they are almost totally without CL money and often by wasting what money they have spent.

I'm not sure why we couldn't make signings like Bale and Modric. We probably won't get the Hazards - the very best youngsters - but I think we can still get very good ones.

 

[hmmmmm1]

The long term view sounds good until a champions league clubs in a courtinho/next gem and we have to sell and rebuild again.

If we can keep Luis and add one or two more players, we will be contenders for 4th next season

 

[Gerry_A_Trick]

So effectively what you are saying is we become more of a selling club than we are now ... which will not get us into the CL (as Henry knows with his "we don't want to sell out best players" quote this week).

Every club is a selling club. You just need to be smart about when you sell and when you don't. Plenty of clubs sell top players and still get into the CL, some even win the league.

Henry said, we don't want to sell our best players, I hardly expect him to say we do. What he thinks and what he does are separate, I would think that he doesn't want to sell our best players unless we get offered more than they're worth.

 

[Frogfish]

Impossible to say, but I think it's a very real possibility.

The signings and selling of players is the most important part of his job, and given how we've now got a huge amount left to sort out in three weeks, I think it would have been better if he stayed at Melwood. We haven't been very productive in the last two or three weeks, and we might resent that a few weeks into September.

He will already, along with those nominated by Henry, have identified the players we need and almost certainly backups to the backups for those players and for every scenario (keep Suarez, lose Suarez, sell Skrtel, keep Skrtel ... and so on). He doesn't get involved in the negotiating so being back in Liverpool would accomplish absolutely nothing IMHO.

 

[Squiggles]

He will already, along with those nominated by Henry, have identified the players we need and almost certainly backups to the backups for those players and for every scenario (keep Suarez, lose Suarez, sell Skrtel, keep Skrtel ... and so on). He doesn't get involved in the negotiating so being back in Liverpool would accomplish absolutely nothing IMHO.

I can't agree with that. It's not a coincidence that we've made no progress with transfers ever since we left for the tour, but anyways.

 

[peterhague]

The long term view sounds good until a champions league clubs in a courtinho/next gem and we have to sell and rebuild again.

If we can keep Luis and add one or two more players, we will be contenders for 4th next season

Yeah, I think perceived lack of ambition is a bit of a problem. All I'd really say there is maybe that would be balanced quite a lot because I'm not actually advocating not spending money. I'd spend as much as we can on the right players. Let's just say, for argument's sake, we sold Suarez and bought Luis Muriel, that Ukrainian dude, and say, Eriksen. Just let's say that's feasible in terms of getting them to sign. Would we necessarily be seen as lacking ambition?

 

[Frogfish]

It's worth noting that Spurs have got where they are almost totally without CL money and often by wasting what money they have spent.

I'm not sure why we couldn't make signings like Bale and Modric. We probably won't get the Hazards - the very best youngsters - but I think we can still get very good ones.

Players like Bale & Suarez (players in the very top echelon of world stars) come along once in a Blue Moon for clubs in our situation .. and then they are inevitably sold (SG being the obvious exception). We may find players like Coutinho now and again ... but I would be extremely surprised if we could find enough to challenge for 4th without substantial investment from whatever source. I believe this season could be a watershed season for us, one way or another; Gerrard, Countinho, Johnson, maybe Suarez, these players have 1-2 years at most to be playing together, before they are gone for one reason or another, and they will be far from easy to replace.

 

[peterhague]

You cant build for the future without CL money...

Look at Spurs, look at Dortmund. You're obviously wrong.

 

[keniget]

It's worth noting that Spurs have got where they are almost totally without CL money and often by wasting what money they have spent.

I'm not sure why we couldn't make signings like Bale and Modric. We probably won't get the Hazards - the very best youngsters - but I think we can still get very good ones.

I think times have changed since Spurs started on that journey though. There is a lot more money in the game and the emergence of City has added yet another top team to try and compete with.

I think we need to continue what we're doing now - building for the future but with one eye on the present. I don't think we can afford to just say "fuck it, let's go for the CL in 4 years time when our amazing plan comes together and all of our 21 year olds become 40M players at once". We need to be pushing hard for a top 4 place as best we can whilst trying to rebuild. Not an easy task but that's where we're at.

 

[Frogfish]

Let's just say, for argument's sake, we sold Suarez and bought Luis Muriel, that Ukrainian dude, and say, Eriksen. Just let's say that's feasible in terms of getting them to sign. Would we necessarily be seen as lacking ambition?

I think the bookies would make us favourites for 4th if that were to happen !

 

[peterhague]

Players like Bale & Suarez (players in the very top echelon of world stars) come along once in a Blue Moon for clubs in our situation .. and then they are inevitably sold (SG being the obvious exception). We may find players like Coutinho now and again ... but I would be extremely surprised if we could find enough to challenge for 4th without substantial investment from whatever source. I believe this season could be a watershed season for us, one way or another; Gerrard, Countinho, Johnson, maybe Suarez, these players have 1-2 years at most to be playing together, before they are gone for one reason or another, and they will be far from easy to replace.

Well you see this is where we differ. I think there's no need to accept that reality. There *is* something to be done about it.

Bale is only a 'blue moon' type because of how outstandingly he's developed - there are actually plenty of players in that category of top class 17/18 year olds, and most of them you could feasibly see us signing, because, after all, our position right now is similar to Spurs's when they signed Bale and Modric. We don't need the ones we sign to be as brilliant as Bale.

 

[Le Chacal]

Look at Spurs, look at Dortmund. You're obviously wrong.

Err what have they achieved? 5th I think and they re going to lose their best player and the german league is very different.
Dortmund has the biggest fanbase in Germany and they won the CL 15 years ago, its not like they re coming out of nowhere..

 

[Mamma Mia]

Err what have they achieved? 5th I think and they re going to lose their best player and the german league is very different.
Dortmund has the biggest fanbase in Germany and they won the CL 15 years ago, its not like they re coming out of nowhere..

As opposed to those no marks, Liverpool Football Club?

 

[Gerry_A_Trick]

Players like Bale & Suarez (players in the very top echelon of world stars) come along once in a Blue Moon for clubs in our situation .. and then they are inevitably sold (SG being the obvious exception). We may find players like Coutinho now and again ... but I would be extremely surprised if we could find enough to challenge for 4th without substantial investment from whatever source. I believe this season could be a watershed season for us, one way or another; Gerrard, Countinho, Johnson, maybe Suarez, these players have 1-2 years at most to be playing together, before they are gone for one reason or another, and they will be far from easy to replace.

Players that ended up in the 30-50 bracket:

11/12: None
10/11: Suarez
09/10: None
08/09: None
07/08: Torres
06/07: Mascherano
05/06: None
04/05: Alonso


Excluding this season(Coutinho and Sturridge could both end up in that bracket), we have got a player relatively cheap and ended up with them in the higher bracket of players every second year. All of them were from lesser clubs or lesser leagues. We do manage to find the players, just not often enough.

 

[Buddha]

Neither are we though?

 

[peterhague]

I think times have changed since Spurs started on that journey though. There is a lot more money in the game and the emergence of City has added yet another top team to try and compete with.

I think we need to continue what we're doing now - building for the future but with one eye on the present. I don't think we can afford to just say "fuck it, let's go for the CL in 4 years time when our amazing plan comes together and all of our 21 year olds become 40M players at once". We need to be pushing hard for a top 4 place as best we can whilst trying to rebuild. Not an easy task but that's where we're at.

Well sure - as I've said, I'm torn. But I just wonder if it's a cop out.

I mean, you're a football junkie, so why not address one of the original questions: is there an unavoidable trade-off between selling Agger and getting long-term value and upsetting the defence in the short term? £20m looks a brilliant deal for him, but it'd effectively mean having a new defence: would that have a major impact on our chances of getting 4th regardless of getting in a quality replacement and if so is it actually cost-effective?

 

[peterhague]

Err what have they achieved? 5th I think and they re going to lose their best player and the german league is very different.
Dortmund has the biggest fanbase in Germany and they won the CL 15 years ago, its not like they re coming out of nowhere..

You're beyond parody.