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Anyone who has paid the slightest bit of attention to xG this season will not be surprised to see Brighton's involvement here. What is shocking is the vast difference between their expected and actual finishing positions.
They should (taking the theory to the nth degree) be battling among Europe's best in the Champions League next season. Being realistic, at the very least they ought to be a top-10 side.
The issue for Brighton has been converting the numerous chances that they create. There's an argument to be made that the Seagulls have huge potential with better players but even then, they should have done more with what they have.
Neal Maupay finished the campaign with eight goals from 13.74 xG. His 0.49 expected goals per game number also put him above the likes of Son Heung-min, Danny Ings, Ollie Watkins and Chris Wood - an actual tally matching those would have seen Brighton with a few more points on the board.
Brighton sit seventh for average shots per game but 14th for efforts on target. At the other end, only Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City concede fewer shots over the course of 90 minutes. Average possession puts Brighton 10 yet what they do with the ball when it really matters has been their downfall - they are 15th for goals scored.
That's another metric that they have drastically fallen short on.
The 40 goals have come from an xG of 56.7 which should mean their goal difference stands around the +16 mark. Instead, after 38 games, they are on -6.
While Graham Potter may not be the glamorous name that most Tottenham fans are hoping for, Brighton's underlying numbers demonstrate that he may be the most sensible appointment in North London. Putting better players into his system could drive them back up the table.
Ultimately, Spurs want a return to the top-four but remarkably it could have been Brighton there this season. Where could he take a club further up in the actual standings?
Perhaps Brighton's most important bit of business will be keeping Potter at the club this summer. Recruitment will be key though as they can't rely on the rub of the green to steer them away from relegation trouble - the system is right and it just needs the players to make it work.[/article]