West Ham fan though he may be, the guy "gets it". Top, top article - thanks for posting.
Klopp
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Strongly agree about the last bit and, to that end, I'd be willing to look at such an arrangement if it were absolutely necessary. However I'm afraid I'd be wary of giving the interim job to Lijnders, who sank like a stone in his first managerial stint in Holland, and at this stage I don't really have an alternative suggestion. We'd have to be very careful about picking the right stand-in.
A sabbatical sounds better than what he said in the past (that he's going to leave in about 7 years no matter what). His Dortmund team kind of burned out in his last season and both sides felt it was time for a change – if this doesn't happen with LFC and he just takes a season off to recharge his batteries, I would be all for it. Let Gerrard manage for a season.
If you takes a break in 2022 or sometime.soon after, he will.lesve the club completely. Can't seem him.taking a sabbatical and coming back. He will head back to Germany probably for national job or Mainz before retiring. Bayern want him but I can't ever see him.going there. Hopefully we win the league in next 3 seasons.
hahahaha
He seems to have had it all planned. The average age of the team now is 26-27, 3 more years and it will be around 30, time for abit of rebuilding, maybe with a new manager. Perhaps it will be Stevie with Milly as assistant or someone else who knows, but we can't begrudge Klopp his departure if he asks for it.
No they didn't burn out, they had horrendous luck with injuries and just horrendous luck in front of goal based on Xg where they were annihilating teams 2 or 3 to 1 but still losing.
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We'll see how Klopp feels in 3 years. Honestly, the guy looks like he's fucking loving life. I think we have terrific structures in place now in terms of coaching, signing players and really in every aspect of the club. I'm not saying he has an easy gig, but I do think he probably has never been better supported in his role than right here and now. So lets see.
It wasn't just luck. The squad was too thin, and they were defending horribly, with Hummels having a nightmare start to the season and their big signing Immobile proving to be utterly shite.
Over the course of a season, if you finish 7th, that's where you deserve to finish.
There have been numerous assessments made on that Dortmund season, even Binny's recent post on Graham had reference to chance and injuries (and Klopp incredulous that they dominated some matches and yet lost). They were bottom in December and finished 6th. Most statistical analysis since then have concluded they would have finished 2nd with an even roll of the dice. And finishing positions in league aren't always 'where you deserve to finish' since a series of one off matches called 'a season' is statistically never enough for 'chance' to even out.
"Most statistical analysis since then have concluded they would have finished 2nd with an even roll of the dice"
What the actual fuck
What the actual fuck
That’s 6 fingers on the bus is epic.
FWIW I'd be surprised if he ended up at Bayern. When the Mancs tried to tempt him previously, presenting him with a stainless steel Big Club to take over didn't spark his interest and I can't see why Bayern would be any more successful, especially with Klopp being ex-Dortmund. The national team might be a different matter, I don't really know, but hopefully he'll have too good a time here to want to go.
OK let's simplify the intent of showing Xg stats by utilising a quote from the Graham piece:
Graham brought up another game to Klopp, against Hannover a month later. The statistics were weighted even more heavily in Dortmund’s favour: 18 shots to seven, 55 balls into the box compared with 13, 11 successful crosses from the wing to three. “You lost, 1-0,” he said. “But you created double the chances —”
Klopp practically shouted. “Did you see that game?” “We killed them! I’ve never seen anything like it. We should have won
Klopp has made more than a few non complimentary remarks about Bayern. Their top brass may want him now but the majority of their fanbase don't, it would be like Mourinho coming here. Bayern simply don't fit the profile of a the type of club that interests Klopp. Atletico Madrid was mentioned, and seems to fit the profile, but Klopp doesn't speak Spanish and doesn't like using interpreters. Ditto that scenario for Inter or AC Milan. I strongly doubt he'd go anywhere in England after Anfield.
I could see him going back to Mainz or Dortmund but the German National Team is probably most likely. That said I think it's most likely he'll extend here and if all goes smoothly end up staying 10 years or more.
"I know we lost 3-0, but actually we won 5-3 based on expected goals, so although it looks like we came 7th and lost a cup final, we actually came 2nd and won a cup final.
Pretty great season really, I shouldn't have resigned"
Pretty great season really, I shouldn't have resigned"
Football Hackers: The Science and Art of a Data Revolution
Link: https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=uiCIDwAAQBAJ
(The normal service resume part kinda apply for Dortmund, given they were 17th at winter break and finished the season 7th)
At winter break of 14/15:
[article]A first look at the numbers tells me that Dortmund certainly aren’t playing like a relegation threatened team. Our Expected Goals model (which basically assigns the probability of each shot being scored) has Klopp’s team in for scoring approximately 25 goals so far this season and a conceded total of 17 goals; this gives an Expected goal difference of +8 goals. The reality of what happened on the pitch is very different however, with the concession of 26 goals dwarfing the 18 goals that they have actually scored – that is a swing of 16 goals between the Expected Goal Difference as calculated by us and their real Goal Difference. And all of that occurred in just 17 games.
It is sometimes possible for a team to under perform their Expected Goal Difference without having a significant adverse impact on their league position. For example, a team may win by just 1 goal despite an emphatic performance, or get beat by 3 or 4 goals when the numbers would suggest that they should have suffered a narrow defeat. In both these cases the underperformance of Expected goals doesn’t actually cost the team any league points. Unfortunately however, Dortmund have not had the good fortune to be in this position this season as they have recorded six single goal defeats and three draws from their 17 league games played. In other words, an additional goal here or there would almost certainly have resulted in additional league points for BVB.
Using our ExpG model, when I run thousands of simulations on all the shots taken in the games played so far in the Bundesliga this season I arrive at a league table that looks as follows at the top:
It’s noticeable that, with the exception of Dortmund, all of the other teams have approximately as many league points as our model has predicted.
Not only do I not have Dortmund in relegation trouble, but I actually have them in 4th position and, on my simulated table, they are within 1 league point of Wolfsburg. The lack of league points won by Dortmund this season, given the shots taken in their games, is extraordinary. The extent of their underperformance in terms of Expected Goals and actual goals is not something that I think I have seen before and even if their underlying performances don’t improve I’m confident that it’s only a matter of time until Dortmund begin their ascent up the table.
Despite that assertion I wanted to take a look at some of the metrics I keep an eye on to see if I could pick something else out that might help us get an idea of what has changed for the Black and Yellows this season.[/article]
[article]
Some of Dortmund’s defensive lowlights:
Our model expected Dortmund to concede approximately 16.5 goals so far this season; however they have conceded 26.
[/article]
Link: https://books.google.com.sg/books?id=uiCIDwAAQBAJ
(The normal service resume part kinda apply for Dortmund, given they were 17th at winter break and finished the season 7th)
At winter break of 14/15:
[article]A first look at the numbers tells me that Dortmund certainly aren’t playing like a relegation threatened team. Our Expected Goals model (which basically assigns the probability of each shot being scored) has Klopp’s team in for scoring approximately 25 goals so far this season and a conceded total of 17 goals; this gives an Expected goal difference of +8 goals. The reality of what happened on the pitch is very different however, with the concession of 26 goals dwarfing the 18 goals that they have actually scored – that is a swing of 16 goals between the Expected Goal Difference as calculated by us and their real Goal Difference. And all of that occurred in just 17 games.
It is sometimes possible for a team to under perform their Expected Goal Difference without having a significant adverse impact on their league position. For example, a team may win by just 1 goal despite an emphatic performance, or get beat by 3 or 4 goals when the numbers would suggest that they should have suffered a narrow defeat. In both these cases the underperformance of Expected goals doesn’t actually cost the team any league points. Unfortunately however, Dortmund have not had the good fortune to be in this position this season as they have recorded six single goal defeats and three draws from their 17 league games played. In other words, an additional goal here or there would almost certainly have resulted in additional league points for BVB.
Using our ExpG model, when I run thousands of simulations on all the shots taken in the games played so far in the Bundesliga this season I arrive at a league table that looks as follows at the top:
It’s noticeable that, with the exception of Dortmund, all of the other teams have approximately as many league points as our model has predicted.
Not only do I not have Dortmund in relegation trouble, but I actually have them in 4th position and, on my simulated table, they are within 1 league point of Wolfsburg. The lack of league points won by Dortmund this season, given the shots taken in their games, is extraordinary. The extent of their underperformance in terms of Expected Goals and actual goals is not something that I think I have seen before and even if their underlying performances don’t improve I’m confident that it’s only a matter of time until Dortmund begin their ascent up the table.
Despite that assertion I wanted to take a look at some of the metrics I keep an eye on to see if I could pick something else out that might help us get an idea of what has changed for the Black and Yellows this season.[/article]
[article]
Some of Dortmund’s defensive lowlights:
- 15% of all shots taken against them have been scored (this is the highest in the league)
- Allowed 6.3% of shots taken from outside the penalty area to be scored. The league average is 3.6% and only Leverkusen (7.5%) have conceded a higher percentage this season
Our model expected Dortmund to concede approximately 16.5 goals so far this season; however they have conceded 26.
[/article]
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I wonder if England came calling would he take it, supposing in his mind at the time he's had enough of club football?
England would be a much bigger project than Germany and winning it for England would mean much much more than winning it with his homeland
Not for a German
What the actual fucking fuck are you quacking on about?
Yeah, that was some weird logic. As if it would mean more to me winning the WC with Thailand then playing for my native Norway and winning it.
Not the greatest example mind you as both teams will never win the WC unless there are only two teams competing.
Not the greatest example mind you as both teams will never win the WC unless there are only two teams competing.
I would love winning it for Thailand... imagine the free massages after....
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