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Mystic said:
I was going purely on the video Rosco posted, nothing more, and in that video he looked very ordinary.
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So you're advising a 'big pass' on the basis of one 4 minute video and knowing nothing else about the player, no stats, no nothing? You sure you're qualified? I'm going to show you a few wee quotes from your good self from the LAST time I was this confident about a player (Salah) and started a campaign:
On a serious note though, he was shit / ignored at Chelsea, whats changed?
Click to expand...
It's weird, but in a clip showing him score 19 goals in a season, he didn't look that impressive to me. A large number of his goals came from pretty tame shots of his that the goalkeeper either got a hand to and still let it squirm in, or weakly parried back to him for a tap in, a lot of them were rebounds from other players shots, and only a few looked like solid individual efforts.
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I'm not convinced by him, he looks like yet another fucking player who'll play superb in those games where the entire team clicks, but then perform a vanishing act when we're playing so so. Basically he doesn't seem like a big match winning player to me.

Also, even though those years in Italy undoubtedly improved him as a player in a way that wouldn't have happened here, its beyond embarrassing that we're now looking to pay £40m+ on a player we could have signed for £12m a few years back if we didn't fuck around like a chicken trying to friend zone a nerd.
Click to expand...

Don't be on the wrong side of history again dude.
 
The Statistics That Show Burnley's Nick Pope Should Be England's Number One At The World Cup

By Simon Lillicrap
Tuesday 20th March 2018


Nick_Pope.jpg

The upcoming friendly games against Netherlands and Italy will give us an insight into where Gareth Southgate’s head is at regarding his number one position for the World Cup. In the current squad, he has four keepers all of whom have negatives to their name, but there is one man he stands head and shoulders above his rivals, Burnley’s Nick Pope.
At the start of the season, few would have picked Burnley’s number two to start in between the sticks for England at the World Cup, but his meteoric rise is a testament to his determination which can see the 25-year-old make the step up to the international stage.
Since Tom Heaton, another name tipped for a place on the plane, got injured back in September, Pope has risen to the unexpected challenge of playing in the Premier League week in, week out.
Burnley boast a better defence than Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea this season and have conceded just 26 goals in 30 league games this season. The core to their defensive success has been the English trio of Nick Pope, James Tarkowski and Ben Mee. The former two have been included in this week’s England squad and all three harbour ambitions of being included in the final 23 but it is Pope who stands the best chance.
Nick Pope boasts the second highest save percentage in the Premier League behind the great David De Gea. At 80.2%, he certainly keeps opposition strikers at bay and earns his tag as one of the best goalkeepers in the league. In comparison, the other keepers in Southgate’s squad are trailing the uncapped man. Jack Butland’s save percentage is 68.3%, Jordan Pickford is at 67.3% whilst the man with 75 England caps, Joe Hart, is way behind on 53.5%.

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OptaJoe
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10 – Nick Pope has conceded 22 Premier League goals this season, but based on Opta xG data for the shots on target he's faced, the average goalkeeper would have been expected to concede 32. Only David de Gea (14) has a bigger differential in the Premier League this season. Lion. https://t.co/nfDnQ60YmN
12:01 PM - 15th Mar 18

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England’s most experienced goalkeeper has kept just three clean sheets all season has flopped since joining West Ham, a move that many thought would kick-start his career. At 30-years-old and with two World Cups under his belt, Hart should be the safe and experienced pair of hands that England need, but instead, he gives off this loudmouth image and makes far too many mistakes.
This seemingly leaves the door open for Pickford and Butland but both of those goalkeepers are enduring poor seasons themselves with both Everton and Stoke going through turbulent times. This leaves Southgate in a position where he needs to be brave in his decision making.
Another stat that backs up Pope’s credentials is the fact that he has saved 11 of the 22 clear cut chances he has faced this season, which is the best record in the league when it comes to that statistic. He has also not made a single error leading to an opposition goal whilst Joe Hart has made three!
Nick Pope has been England’s best goalkeeper this season and deserves recognition for the performances he has been putting in. He has been more consistent than his England rivals and Southgate must give the Burnley keeper international experience he needs over the next few games so by the time the World Cup comes around he is settled in between the sticks.
England must also be wary of losing Angus Gunn to Scotland. One of England’s finest young goalkeepers has completed a full season in the Championship and should have Premier League suitors in January. Southgate cannot let him slip through the net as with the unsteady keeper situation at the moment, Gunn can be a future England number one.
But the present is now and Tom Pope must start when England face Costa Rica in their World Cup opener on the 7th June.
 
The best and worst goalkeepers in the PL - according to stats

by Matt Morley @rfutbol - 07 Nov 17 0 3,946
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Butland is statistically the PL's worst goalkeeper. AFP

Following the creation of the new expected goals stat (xG), Opta may have revolutionised how we look at goalkeepers' performances forever. We take a look at the Premier League's best and worst goalkeepers so far this season according to the metric.

COMPETITION

Premier League

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According to Opta, the best goalkeeper in the Premier League is Burnley's second choice stopper! Nick Pope came into the side after 'Clarets' captain Tom Heaton dislocated his shoulder and has flourished, having conceded 5.9 goals less than he would reasonably have been expected to. Impressively, the former Charlton man also has the best save percentage in the competition, having made 37 stops at an average of 88.1% in his eight games, conceding just five.
It will come as little surprise that Manchester United's David De Gea is statistically the second best goalkeeper in the league, having prevented 5.7 expected goals. The Spaniard has more clean sheets than any other player so far this season (eight) and has conceded just five goals in 11 games. His save percentage isn't bad either, having made 32 stops at an average of 86.5%.
At the other end of the scale, there is bad news for England fans. Stoke's Jack Butland is the Premier League's worst-performing stopper having conceded 5.7 more goals than he should have done, he is closely followed by Everton's Jordan Pickford with 3.7 and the top three is rounded off by West Brom's Ben Foster with 2.3.
The save percentage stats don't make for particularly good reading either, with only Liverpool's Simon Mignolet (21 saves at 54.1%) posting a worse return than Butland (27 saves at 54.2%) with England No 1 Joe Hart closely following them (31 saves at 56.6%).
 
De Gea, Pope and the Premier League’s leading goalkeepers based on save percentage

Aaron-Goldstein_avatar_1477730083-32x32.png

By Aaron Goldstein Last Updated: May 15, 2018 8:18 pm
Who was the best goalkeeper this year?

The Premier League season came to a close on Sunday afternoon after 9 months of hard work.

David De Gea won the Golden Glove after keeping 18 clean sheets for Manchester United and conceding just 28 goals.
Based on statistics obtained from Fox Sports, Reddit User Whoateallmytime has put together a table of all of the Premier League goalkeepers based on their save percentage.
David De Gea tops the table

Screen-Shot-2018-05-15-at-19.20.59-1024x692.png

David De Gea faced 144 shots on goal, making 115 saves, a remarkable statistic, but shows that there are plenty of flaws in Manchester United’s defence. The Spaniard had a terrific season but shouldn’t have to be making so many saves in order to keep United in the top four.
Burnley were certainly the surprise package of the season as they finished seventh and qualified for next season’s Europa League. Their performances were often aided by the heroics of substitute goalkeeper, Nick Pope, who stepped in for the injured Tom Heaton.
Pope finished the season with the second highest save percentage out of all the goalkeepers in the league.
Despite Swansea’s relegation, former Arsenal keeper Lukasz Fabianski had a fantastic campaign and has proved that he is far too good for the Championship.
West Ham’s Adrian finished surprisingly high in the table.
Do Arsenal and Tottenham need a new goalkeeper?

Petr Cech finished 23rd in the table of keepers which is simply not good enough for a top club.

If Arsenal want to compete in the top four next season, they certainly need an upgrade.
Cech faced 137 shots and made just 87 saves. The 35 year old conceded 48 goals and made 6 errors leading to the opposition scoring.
Tottenham goalkeeper Hugo Lloris may have finished 10th in the table, but he only slightly edged out Brighton stopper Matt Ryan.
Lloris made 5 costly errors which led to goals this season and he simply cannot continue to make mistakes.
 
So, if last season represents his level, he's been better than all others, De Gea apart when it comes to shot-stopping. As I've said before, he's comfortably the BEST statistically when it come to high claims. Can you imagine having a player who regularly catches crosses?
Watch the longer vid of him. A large percentage of great keeping is good angles- standing in a good position. Time and again I think he makes a shot look more ordinary than it was because he's simply excellent when it comes to positioning. I love the way he guards the near post and keeps his legs together when he's facing someone at a narrow angle. It was pointed out on more than a few occasions last season about both Ming and Karius having very odd habits when it comes to positioning. This guy, if he can beat the Acterburg effect, looks so much better than what we have. I've said it before, and I'll say it again, I'd much rather him than Allison. Only Oblak tempts me if we're prepared to splurge big.
 
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doctor_mac said:
So you're advising a 'big pass' on the basis of one 4 minute video and knowing nothing else about the player, no stats, no nothing? You sure you're qualified? I'm going to show you a few wee quotes from your good self from the LAST time I was this confident about a player (Salah) and started a campaign:




Don't be on the wrong side of history again dude.
Click to expand...
Well let's be honest with ourselves here, I didn't come into this thread claiming to be an authority on anything Nick Pope related, my fears remain based on that video though, it's a big pile of meh. I'd be much more interested in seeing a video of those he let in though, that's where you learn the most about goalies imo. Don't deny the stats look good, but the stats looked good for Karius as well, stats always look good if you want them to.

In regards to Salah, I had some reservations at the time from watching his videos, which were proven unnecessary, that's true, however I did make this world class pun, so I think it balances out quite nicely in my favour.
It seems like some Salah'd Mohamedmentum is starting to build around this one.
Click to expand...
 
doctor_mac said:
De Gea, Pope and the Premier League’s leading goalkeepers based on save percentage

Aaron-Goldstein_avatar_1477730083-32x32.png

By Aaron Goldstein Last Updated: May 15, 2018 8:18 pm
Who was the best goalkeeper this year?

The Premier League season came to a close on Sunday afternoon after 9 months of hard work.

David De Gea won the Golden Glove after keeping 18 clean sheets for Manchester United and conceding just 28 goals.
Based on statistics obtained from Fox Sports, Reddit User Whoateallmytime has put together a table of all of the Premier League goalkeepers based on their save percentage.
David De Gea tops the table

Screen-Shot-2018-05-15-at-19.20.59-1024x692.png

David De Gea faced 144 shots on goal, making 115 saves, a remarkable statistic, but shows that there are plenty of flaws in Manchester United’s defence. The Spaniard had a terrific season but shouldn’t have to be making so many saves in order to keep United in the top four.
Burnley were certainly the surprise package of the season as they finished seventh and qualified for next season’s Europa League. Their performances were often aided by the heroics of substitute goalkeeper, Nick Pope, who stepped in for the injured Tom Heaton.
Pope finished the season with the second highest save percentage out of all the goalkeepers in the league.
Despite Swansea’s relegation, former Arsenal keeper Lukasz Fabianski had a fantastic campaign and has proved that he is far too good for the Championship.
West Ham’s Adrian finished surprisingly high in the table.
Do Arsenal and Tottenham need a new goalkeeper?

Petr Cech finished 23rd in the table of keepers which is simply not good enough for a top club.

If Arsenal want to compete in the top four next season, they certainly need an upgrade.
Cech faced 137 shots and made just 87 saves. The 35 year old conceded 48 goals and made 6 errors leading to the opposition scoring.
Tottenham goalkeeper Hugo Lloris may have finished 10th in the table, but he only slightly edged out Brighton stopper Matt Ryan.
Lloris made 5 costly errors which led to goals this season and he simply cannot continue to make mistakes.
Click to expand...
Karius is better than Ederson
 
The repeatability of goal keepers saves percentage is poor. In general, if your stat has a poor repeatability, it’s useful to describe what has happened, but very misleading to assume that things will happen along the same lines in the future.
Click to expand...

Percentage of shots saved with a correction for shot quality

The third analysis uses shot quality. Based on our Expected Goals (ExpG) model, each shot is assigned a chance of ending up in goal, based on shot location, shot type and several other factors. This helps to control for the difficulty goal keepers have to make the save. In theory, this analysis is the best test for shot stopping quality, since it removes the fact that some keepers face tougher shots than others.

Goals conceded above replacement identifies how many goals a keeper conceded above or below the value of Expected Goals per 100 shots faced.
After correcting for shot quality, all connection between first year performance and second year performance is lost. A goal keeper who over performed in the first year, has an equal chance of over performing in the second year as a goal keeper who under performed in the first year.

The most intriguing part of this rather shocking conclusion is that this knowledge is already out there, yet people continue to analyze goal keepers on the basis of saves
Click to expand...
 
Conclusion

Of course there are goalkeepers that save shots better than others. But for every goalkeeper such as David de Gea that have consistently over performed (1.23 and 1.21 is the ExpG2 Ratio for his two sets of 250 shots) we have a Stephane Ruffier who notched up ExpG2 ratios of 1.15 and 0.98 in his two sets of 250 shots.

. If those two players had been assessed after their first batch of 250 on target shots (which would have taken almost two full seasons to amass) they would both have been assumed to be well above average shot stoppers. However, only one of them went on to repeat it again after they faced another batch of 250 on target shots.

Imagine the analyst that recommended signing Ruffier on the strength of his save performances using an advanced metric over a “large” dataset of 250 shots or 60 games. This is a good time to recall Billy Beane’s assertion that we need to make very sure that we know what we are doing with our data as the stakes will be high for any club that truly embraces the use of data in their decision making process.

When this level of variance exists after 250 shots, it is easy to see how Simon Mignolet went from being one of the best shot stoppers in the EPL in the 2012/13 season (ExpG2 ratio of 1.25) to being one of the worst in 2013/14 (ExpG2 ratio of 0.88). Very simply, trying to judge how good a goalkeeper is at saving shots based on one season’s worth of data is little more than a craps shoot such is the divergence on performance over 150 shots.

Just 11% of his performance next season can be explained by his performance in the season just passed. It looks to me that the very fact a player is good enough to be a goalkeeper for a top tier club means that he has achieved a level of performance that is difficult for even advanced numbers to distinguish, at least not until he has faced a very large number of shots. I’m just not sure yet how large that number needs to be.
Click to expand...
 
@Rosco
But sometimes you gotta take a punt in the hope you might have a De Gea. At the price for Pope, it's worth taking that punt. As I say, I like what I see in terms of the way he positions himself, and as I've said repeatedly, it isn't just excellent shot stopping. He bosses the area according to the stats too. I know you are playing devil's advocate, and you could do that with any keeper, bar a select few. We need to buy someone, and we'll be playing the odds somewhere along the line. Do we roll the same dice with Allison for 50million?

@Skullflower He has got vibes. Big hairy vibes.
 
Sometimes you just have a massive feeling for a player. I understand the concerns. Where was he before last season? Is he flattered by playing for a defensive side? I think he really could be a Robertson signing (who, hands up, I was negative about having no knowledge of the player whatsoever). Robertson could easily have been signed by a lesser side last season. We weren't beating the top teams away for him, like we will be if we sign Sessegnon. He could have drifted about, looking like a good journeyman in mid table PL teams. But we saw something and brought him in, and he's pure class. I think Pope is class, and this time I have done some due diligence.
 
doctor_mac said:
@Rosco
But sometimes you gotta take a punt in the hope you might have a De Gea. At the price for Pope, it's worth taking that punt. As I say, I like what I see in terms of the way he positions himself, and as I've said repeatedly, it isn't just excellent shot stopping. He bosses the area according to the stats too. I know you are playing devil's advocate, and you could do that with any keeper, bar a select few. We need to buy someone, and we'll be playing the odds somewhere along the line. Do we roll the same dice with Allison for 50million?

@Skullflower He has got vibes. Big hairy vibes.
Click to expand...

You've been trotting out the stats, but as one article says - they only describe what happened, one season of info is just not enough to say he's good enough.

On the zero mistakes leading to a goal thing, what about this cross that Chelsea score from ?


I think the stats are misleading for Pope, based on my extensive youtube research lasting approximately 7 minutes. The stats seem to be more as a result of the way Burnley play and the type of chances they give up rather than brilliance on his part.

I can't decide whether he's in the right place or he was just lucky that so many balls were hit straight at him (his top 5 save compilation involves a save he made with his face).

I just don't see it. He might well be goalkeepings answer to Vardy but i just see statistical hype that will fade next season.
 
Oncy said:
Doc wanted Salah. Hes earned our trust.

I cant say I want the pope or will love the pope and its hard not to say fuck the pope tbf but I got you doc
Click to expand...

He also had a massive thing for Charlie Adam...
 
So it's settled then. Au revoir Karius and Ming and welcome with open arms to Alisson/Oblak and Pope.
 
Rosco said:
On the zero mistakes leading to a goal thing, what about this cross that Chelsea score from ?
Click to expand...


That's not a mistake, is it? That ball is pulled back slightly out of his reach.

For me it isn't just 'statistical hype' with Pope; I've been impressed with him every time I saw him last season. I agree, that one big season represents a gamble, but I think it is one worth taking.


But who do you think we should we be buying?
 
If that ball is out of his reach then his reach is poor.
If he's not athletic/agile at 26 then he won't last long at the top level.

The easy answer is Oblak, but i don't think he's a realistic option.

Lafont, Pavlenka, Perin,
 
doctor_mac said:
It is not like a 20 or 30 yard cross. It is a cut back and has nothing to do with agility, nor is it a mistake.
Click to expand...

It's a cut back that a good keeper gets to.

His lack of spring should be alarming, rather than an excuse as to why he couldn't deal with that cross/ cutback.

In all of the vids i see a keeper that's good at blocking things hit at him, but one that doesn't move well laterally. That's a bit of a problem for me.

Paul Robinson 2.0
 
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