Are we spending 150m on Bellingham?
- Thread starter mwake
- Start date
- Latest activity Latest activity:
- Status
He looks the real deal but it does feel like an extravagence we can't really afford given that we need to buy for multiple positions.
There is no point buying Bellingham if we're going to continue to scrimp and save across the board and allow injury / form situations to kill off our season.
There is no point buying Bellingham if we're going to continue to scrimp and save across the board and allow injury / form situations to kill off our season.
Why would you think a minority investment would generate so little?
I guess it could if they pocket the cash, but to what end?
I think it's worth reiterating some of the stuff I have said in the past about cash-flow.
If you look at the club's accounts, at the end of the last available year (31 May 2021), we have a bank facility of £200m, of which £128m was drawn down. We also had cash in the bank of £32m. So in theory, we'd be able to raise / spend £104m at that point in time.
BUT
This is only a snapshot. Cash flow within a football club can vary massively from month to month. Key factors on this are:
- Ticket sales - most of the income is seasonal or else done via members sales so, barring unexpected cup games, most ticket revenue comes in a few lumps and doesn't come in to match up with monthly payments
- Media income - both Premier League and Champions League are also paid out in lumps
- Sponsorship income - again, most of this will come in up-front so it's not a regular monthly / quarterly source of income - this is because clubs don't like to grant season-long rights (e.g. name on shirt) unless they've been fully paid for
- Salaries - core salary bill will be the same each month, but bonuses will likely come in lumps, especially for winning competitions (EPL / CL will come at the end of the year, and possibly not paid at the accounts date)
- Transfer fees - again, remember instalments basis - likely to be large lumps of cash in/out in July / January, in line with the windows
- VAT payment profile will also be lumpy - quarterly payments, plus massively impacted by transfers (for example, if we buy a player from a UK club, we may only pay 1/3 of the fee up-front, but we pay the whole of the VAT up-front) - so on a £60m purchase, the first payment would be £32m (1/3 of £60m + £12m VAT on the whole). Obviously we get the VAT back, but we could be out of pocket for up to 3 months.
And to add a further layer, even if FSG were willing to chip in (and evidently they aren't) it's easy for them to put money IN to plug a short-term cash deficit, but it's an absolute ball-ache, administratively, to take it back OUT as you have to satisfy conditions in the banking agreements in order to do so. So that would deter them from doing so - they'd have to sell any cash injection to their shareholders as a potentially permanent thing.
So if LFC wants the flexibility to be able to spend more, borrowing or raising share capital to fund it, then it needs to raise that money itself. It likely doesn't have much existing capacity to just go out and spend. It would need bigger bank facilities, or separate loans (which, given the bank would take priority) would be more expensive than what we're currently paying due to carrying higher risk.
So a share injection would be very nice, thank you very much. Not an easy proposition to sell to the person proving it, though.
Buy a US NFL team where its guaranteed profit almost. I think they get something like $320m from TV rights alone.
A minority investment would generate a bigger sum, but if FSG decide they want to de-risk their investment then they'll likely want to split whatever cash comes in between themselves and the club.
If I were investing I'd want at least 25%, which could raise as much as £1bn. That would allow FSG to take full repayment of all of the capital and debt they've invested into the club, and still leave several £100m to play with, subject to meeting FFP.
Kieran Maguire (Price of Football) made an interesting point I'd not thought of re minority investment, which is that a minority investor would need to have the same investment mindset as FSG - i.e. not taking any cash out over the life of the investment, but relying on making a gain at the end. I think this would favour a US investor, as they could "earn" some element of return by way of US tax losses on their investment. An investment fund / pension fund would want dividends / interest on debt, which FSG has largely gone without. That either limits the type of investor who will be interested in a minority stake, or else means we could end up with a messy financing structure to please both parties.
In my M&A days, we often dealt with buy-side advice on deals with multiple parties, but those consortia only worked where they had broadly the same requirement on their return on investment.
Can’t we just take out a big loan to buy Jude and Mbappe ?
I think JUde has the potential to be to our club what Roy Keane was for Man U decades ago.
He can do everything.
Not saying he will succeed like Keane, but the talent etc and ability to influence games is 100% there.
The question is ... will he go to our rivals and leave us wondering what if, or re-create this past dynasty?
He can do everything.
Not saying he will succeed like Keane, but the talent etc and ability to influence games is 100% there.
The question is ... will he go to our rivals and leave us wondering what if, or re-create this past dynasty?
Sucks to say it but if I'm Bellingham, Liverpool wouldn't be top of my list for all the reasons discussed in this thread and others. It feels like the current Liverpool team has already peaked, the squad needs work and the club don't have enough to ensure a title challenging / winning team.
The one thing in our favor is guaranteed playing time. He will start every game with us given the size of our squad. Does not have that guarantee at other places. He is only 19. So in his mind, he can think develop at LFC for 4-5 seasons. If it doesnt work out in terms of trophies move to Real or PSG before he is 25.
I am with you that somehow the economics of this doesn't make sense in my mind. I don't see us making any other signing if we sign Bellingham. Midfield of Hendo, Thiago, Fabinho, Bellingham, Elliott looks way too small in terms of numbers for a full campaign. Unless we luck into another brilliant less than 10-15 million pound midfield signing who can deliver from day one at low wages, it seems way too much of an outlay. This is not like the Alisson, VVD situation. We are in a different phase of squad development now.
Yeah, I did think that - he's young so if he just fancies playing in Liverpool under Klopp and with his mates for a few years, it's not a big deal. But I don't really agree about the playing time thing. He's done his "development" time at Dortmund. 19 or not, nobody is buying him to stick him on the bench.
Not saying that. But he will get more guaranteed minutes at LFC. Madrid have Tchouameni, Camavinga, Valverde and I am sure they will buy couple more hotshot midfield talents when they arise over the next few years. City spent around 100 million on Grealish and Guardiola has not exactly been guaranteeing starts for him. I am betting he will get more minutes at LFC than any other team as we will most likely not be able to afford to spend any more money on midfielders the next couple of years.
We’re signing Rice in January, Bellingham & Kudus in the summer and Gvardiol & Enzo Fernandez the following season.
It’s happening - my loin has been stirred, my gast has been flabbered and my bones are tingling with anticipation.
It’s happening - my loin has been stirred, my gast has been flabbered and my bones are tingling with anticipation.
Am I the only one who thinks Rice is overrated?
No. But I also don't see the giant fuss about Bellingham yet either.
That is to say, I think he's an exciting prospect. Maybe he'll be great in the future, but he isn't right now.
Rice I don't think would be worth the premium.
You prefer noodles… I get it.
Jude knows the values of playing for Liverpool over other clubs. He certainly knows how he will rank in with the rest of the players in our midfield, how Klopp will pull his game up to the next level and his chances of winning top trophies with us compared to other clubs. It's likely his family and agent have already worked this out for him. The big call for him is probably his prospects of winning big trophies consistently, the league title and CL. Real Madrid would be first choice but they have a loaded youngish MF already, which leaves ManC and Liverpool but MC have a poor record with CL football. So its LFC who have a better record in CL and good effort in premier league and other cups.
As a player he can only do so much, but cannot on his own guarantee winning trophies, that has to come from the team. With Jude on board regardless of the fee we pay for him, the club has to do more reinforcement, to increase chances of winning top trophies - its the most logical thing to do. It might also be a condition he would request for joining the club. So the investment outlay in MF in January or at the end of the season would not be for Jude alone but for an extra top player and possibly another one the year after. Remember when we signed VVD, it made no sense not to have somebody like Alisson behind him and we know it was a good decision. Yes at that time, the club had Coutinho money which helped, but we could have used it elsewhere.
If Klopp and FSG are in for Jude and they bring in another high ranking MF player I would read it as statement of intent by the club to scale one more notch and fight toe to toe with the likes of RM and MC on the domestic and international front. I would think that this is where they would want to position the club, which is at the very top where generational talents like Jude and others in the future belong only to Liverpool. FSG knows to do so they will need to find the cash and I believe they know how to raise it.
I disagree, and FWIW so do Dortmund who've made him their skipper. At 19 he already has the complete skillset plus the build and maturity of a fully fledged international. I also don't agree that Rice is overrated but I do share your misgivings about what we'd be charged for him.
Rice is good but he's getting to that point where he needs to move to a better club in order to step up. Him pushing for a move plus the contract situation might mean he's available for less than the figures bandied about for Bellingham. Not sure though.
Happy with the indications that we're faves for Bellingham though. He's a stellar talent.
Any two of that three would improve us hugely.
That said, Bellingham is the big prize. He’s the whole package and only 19 ffs.
This
Bellers or Yunus Musah, Sofyan Amrbat and Enzo Fernandez. I'd take 3 players over 1. It would mena we could rotate Thiago and Fabs without a huge fall off
That's the word I heard months ago. This transfer has been so long in the process. Who knows if it will work out but the story about the parents being very cool about LFC is definitely something I heard and posted here I believe. 🙂
Defo seems to be the current word
- Status
