Betting 2015/16 1% per day challenge

[Pesam]

Did you see the documentary shown on Setanta about pro gambler John O Shea yet @Pesam?
It's called The Gambler.
Well worth a watch.

No, never heard of him Leo. I'll see if I can find it.

I used to have ambitions towards being a professional gambler back in the 80's because I was winning more money playing poker than I was earning in my job. Moving from Dublin to Manchester in 1990 put an end to that though because I had to start from fresh and didn't know how to find enough regular card games (In Dublin I just got in with a certain crowd as we were growing up and I became an integral part of the Dublin poker scene). If I hadn't been such an alcoholic back in those days i'm sure I could have found the right crowd in Manchester by hanging around the casinos etc but getting pissed every day was too much fun 🙂

I've never tried on-line poker as I think reading your opponents is a huge part of the game. I still miss a good game of poker and kid myself that I'll get back into it sometime soon.

 

[Pesam]

Very speculative as I haven't seen either team play in a while but there's a few decent goalscorers on show and both teams have been involved in some high scoring matches this season...............

£3 on 5 goals or more (i.e over 4.5 goals) Dundee v St. Johnstone to win £24

 

[Pesam]

25 minutes Sunderland 1-0 United.........£21 lay of Sunderland winning............ to win £15

 

[Pesam]

48 minutes gone QPR 0-3 Fulham £9 lay of Fulham keeping a clean sheet....to win £7

 

[Pesam]

£10 over 1.5 goals Bournemouth v Stoke to win £4

 

[Pesam]

£86 Ipswich with a +3 handicap to win at Bristol City....to win £6

 

[Pesam]

£50 Derby to beat MK Dons to win £27

 

[Pesam]

£497 LAY of 0-0 full time score Arsenal v Leicester to win £32

 

[Pesam]

£529 Barca to beat Celta Vigo to win £42

 

[Pesam]

£20 Lay of Middlesbro keeping a clean sheet at Leeds.....to win £12

 

[Pesam]

Bizarre price for Kilmarnock to win at Rangers. Yes Rangers should be favourites because Killie are struggling but Rangers are hardly world beaters and are a league below Kilmarnock. I'd price the game 5/4 Rangers......9/4 Draw and 2/1 Killie so the 17/2 available is crazy.

£10 Killie to win at Rangers to win £86

Ok here we go again; this time it's the replay and Kilmarnock have home advantage. Ok the bet above didn't win but Rangers were 1/3 (1.33) to win the game and despite having the majority of the possession they didn't make too many chances whereas Killie had 2 excellent chances to win the game.

The prices (Killie 5/1.....Draw 100/30.....Rangers 4/6) again make no sense for many reasons..................

Killie are a division ahead and despite being 3rd last they are also only 4 points off 4th.
Rangers were beaten easily earlier in the season in the League Cup at home by St. Johnstone who are a similar standard to Killie
Killie play on a plastic pitch and despite the fact they have a poor home record they will be more used to the surface.
Rangers are (along with Hibs) the best team in the Championship but are nothing special and were held 1-1 away to the bottom team (Alloa) at the weekend
Killie fired their manager recently and haven't lost any of the 3 games since and won 0-2 at Motherwell at the weekend.
Killie appointed Lee Clark as manager yesterday and even though he's a shite manager and it's a very poor appointment the player will be all out to impress him tonight. Apparently he is sitting in the stand tonight and allowing Lee McCulloch (who has been in temporary charge) to take charge tonight and continue his good run as caretaker manager.

I'm not saying this is a foregone conclusion but I would price this game at 2/1 Killie.......2/1 Draw.......2/1 Rangers so betting against Rangers is a no brainer IMO. That said I've had a couple of stinkers this week; the lay of Middlesbro clean sheet last night and backing Derby on Saturday so my radar might be a little off so hopefully I'll get back to form tonight.

£20 LAY of rangers winning at Killie........to win £30.
£5 Killie to win in 90 minutes....to win £25

 

[Piedro]

Ive just been out on my lunch and backed Rangers on my coupon.

Wish I'd read this first

 

[Pesam]

Ive just been out on my lunch and backed Rangers on my coupon.

Wish I'd read this first

It's a very difficult game to call Pete and Rangers did edge the first encounter although the 2 best chances fell to Kilmarnock. I'm not backing Killie because i think they'll win, I am back them because it's the value option at those prices. Another factor could be the weather which will be very wet and windy which further balances any gap in quality between the teams. At least one of us will be happy later.

 

[Piedro]

Well not quite. I've done a 3 team Acca so Rangers may win, but Millwall or Oxford may not.

I really fancy Oxford tonight. I think I'm going to back them on their own actually. Northampton are on a great run but I don't think Oxford are a better side from what I've seen.

Whats your take on that match? You watch more lower league than me.

 

[Pesam]

Well not quite. I've done a 3 team Acca so Rangers may win, but Millwall or Oxford may not.

I really fancy Oxford tonight. I think I'm going to back them on their own actually. Northampton are on a great run but I don't think Oxford are a better side from what I've seen.

Whats your take on that match? You watch more lower league than me.

I'm pissed off with Northampton because I backed them to win this division last season and they were shite and now, with much the same squad, they are walking to the title. I reckon Northampton and Oxford are the best 2 teams in this division BUT Oxford's home advantage is nullified if, as rumoured, Kemar Roofe (their best player and top goalscorer) misses the game tonight. I think (sorry) a draw.....or Northampton might just edge it. I won't be betting on it outright but might stick a few quid on 2-2.

Millwall are good but if Scunthorpe start with Stephen Dawson (excellent DM) and their new signing Jim O'Brien (very good AM) then Millwall won't have it all their own way.

In fairness all 3 of your selections have a fair chance tonight BUT I can't say I strongly fancy any of 'em :-(

 

[Piedro]

I'm pissed off with Northampton because I backed them to win this division last season and they were shite and now, with much the same squad, they are walking to the title. I reckon Northampton and Oxford are the best 2 teams in this division BUT Oxford's home advantage is nullified if, as rumoured, Kemar Roofe (their best player and top goalscorer) misses the game tonight. I think (sorry) a draw.....or Northampton might just edge it. I won't be betting on it outright but might stick a few quid on 2-2.

Millwall are good but if Scunthorpe start with Stephen Dawson (excellent DM) and their new signing Jim O'Brien (very good AM) then Millwall won't have it all their own way.

In fairness all 3 of your selections have a fair chance tonight BUT I can't say I strongly fancy any of 'em :-(

Obviously I meant to say that I think Oxford are a better team 🙂

Maybe my heart ruling head, as I've always had a soft spot for Oxford, dunno why. And I've backed them to win the division at 10's before the start of the season. So they need 3 pts tonight! I'm gonna see if I can get any 6/4 or 11/8 if your man Roofe plays, and back them on their own.

Millwall are on a great run, so just stuck them in there at evs to bolster the bet. And I fucking hate Scunthorpe.

Was looking at Hartlepool also, new manager in charge, good win on Saturday. You can get 7/4 for them so could be worth a look.

 

[Pesam]

I think Hignett could be an excellent appointment for Hartlepool and they could win tonight but yet again I think I might leave this one. Notts County have 3 giants in McKenzie, Hollis and Stead and play for set pieces and aerial bombardment. Hartlepool are not a particularly tall team and my main concern would be they wilt under the aerial assault. Neither defence inspires confidence (except County aerially obv) so I might dabble with an over 2.5 goal bet.

 

[Pesam]

Roofe does start for Oxford and O'Brien doesn't start for Scunny so that should improve your chances in both games Pete.

 

[Pesam]

£28 over 1.5 goals Hartlepool v Notts Co.....to win £9

 

[Piedro]

Roofe does start for Oxford and O'Brien doesn't start for Scunny so that should improve your chances in both games Pete.

Not going well. Millwall getting beat and Oxford too.

Didn't back Oxford in the end (in a single)

Have backed Hartlepool so chances there. After being 2-0 down!

You should have Layed Notts County in you 2-0 up bet!

 

[Piedro]

Sorry Hartlepool 🙁

 

[Pesam]

Not going well. Millwall getting beat and Oxford too.

Didn't back Oxford in the end (in a single)

Have backed Hartlepool so chances there. After being 2-0 down!

You should have Layed Notts County in you 2-0 up bet!

I wasn't focussing on too much else apart from the Rangers game as I had over £600 at stake at one stage and was trading all thru the game. Managed to win £180 in the end but was too busy to work out a "cash out" position for the 1% challenge bet on the game so will just take the -£20 loss on that one.

I thought you might be onto something when Hartlepool got back to 2-2 but I'm guessing the winner was from another Notts Co aerial assault.

 

[Piedro]

Well done mate, got your overs bet up too on the Hartlepool game.

No winners for me today. Shite.

 

[Pesam]

Well done mate, got your overs bet up too on the Hartlepool game.

No winners for me today. Shite.

Thanks Pete, I had over 2.5 goals as a bet which won me £40.

I very rarely place such big bets (as the £600 lay of rangers) but was actually "goaded" into it by the price. I thought I'd be clever and lay Rangers big-style @ 1.63 (4/6) in the afternoon "knowing" that common sense would prevail by kick off and the price would be about 1.8 (4/5) and I could trade out the liability off the bet. I expected to have no liability by kick off and about +£80 on Killie or the draw.

Bizarrely the price went the other direction and at kick off Rangers were 1.57! I got belligerent and refused to trade out for a small loss. Obviously when Rangers scored after 3 minutes I was gutted but the Killie equalised along with Waghorn (Rangers best player) having to be substituted allowed me to start trading the bet down at a profit.

Over the 2 games rangers deserved to go though but it was a very tight thing and I maintain Rangers should not have been short odd-on in either game.

I need to get my focus back on this 1% challenge though as it was remiss of me not to work out a trade out price for the £20 bet. Quite simply with 10 minutes to go Rangers were 4/1 to win in 90 minutes so if I'd posted here that I stuck £10 on Rangers to win and had traded out for a guaranteed £20 profit!

I'll have a look at an over 1.5 goals bet in tonight's Roma v Madrid game because Roma have been involved in some very high scoring games this season and madrid are always good for goals.

 

[Pesam]

£535 lay of Gijon beating Barca........to win £29

 

[Pesam]

£25 over 1.5 goals Roma v Real Madrid.....to win £6

 

[Pesam]

End of week 25 and the profit for the week was +£22....which puts the bank at £570 against a target of £560. The target for week 26 is £600.

Topsy-turvy week with some spectacularly bad bets and silly risks. As this challenge progresses the pressure seems to build which is daft because it's still the same 1% per day target! I need to re-focus and accept that I don't always have to stay ahead of the target; it's okay to fall a bit behind in order to wait for the right bets to come along.

 

[dantes]

End of week 25 and the profit for the week was +£22....which puts the bank at £570 against a target of £560. The target for week 26 is £600.

Topsy-turvy week with some spectacularly bad bets and silly risks. As this challenge progresses the pressure seems to build which is daft because it's still the same 1% per day target! I need to re-focus and accept that I don't always have to stay ahead of the target; it's okay to fall a bit behind in order to wait for the right bets to come along.

Periods of drawdown are inevitable. If you plot your profit on a graph since the start, then you can keep an eye on how far behind you've fallen and whether its more/less than how far ahead you rose in the good times. Then you don't need to panic until you reach a point from which history says you can't catch up again. So like below, plot a 1% gradient line on a graph then try to keep around the target. It could be more useful than focusing on the absolute number you are behind by.

 

[Gerry_A_Trick]

End of week 25 and the profit for the week was +£22....which puts the bank at £570 against a target of £560. The target for week 26 is £600.

Topsy-turvy week with some spectacularly bad bets and silly risks. As this challenge progresses the pressure seems to build which is daft because it's still the same 1% per day target! I need to re-focus and accept that I don't always have to stay ahead of the target; it's okay to fall a bit behind in order to wait for the right bets to come along.

I wonder is it useful to think of it that you have 100 units and you're trying to turn it into 107 in a week(ignoring the compounding for now). The units were worth 1 euro when you started, but they just happen to be worth 6 quid now.

It should be easy to turn 100 units into 107 in a week, you've done in loads of times before...

 

[Pesam]

Periods of drawdown are inevitable. If you plot your profit on a graph since the start, then you can keep an eye on how far behind you've fallen and whether its more/less than how far ahead you rose in the good times. Then you don't need to panic until you reach a point from which history says you can't catch up again. So like below, plot a 1% gradient line on a graph then try to keep around the target. It could be more useful than focusing on the absolute number you are behind by.

Thanks for the suggestion dantes but I'm more of an instinctive gambler, which is okay if you have a decent grasp of maths and the risk/reward ratio (which I think I do). My wife is very much into her spread sheets and has always offered to input my data so I can analyse my performance but I honestly don't think I need it. I think I do suffer, like all gamblers, from over-betting (which is what leads to losses and the build up of pressure) and my main focus has to be to try and limit how often I bet.

Regarding reaching a point behind target where I can't comeback, I think that's probably about 50% behind target. The reasoning being that if I go on a losing streak and fall 50% behind target I still have the opportunity to find a bet at Evens to get me back on track. Of course one of my "full bank" bets could wipe me out in one fell swoop but, despite doing that 3 times last week, I don't do full bank bets too often and thankfully when I have they have all proved easy winners without any stressful moments.