Top six

[Frogfish]

An interesting tidbit from another site :

Top 4 over the past 10 seasons.

These are the findings (regular brackets indicate how many points ahead of 5th place the 4th place team finished, while the square brackets show how many teams finished on 80+ Points that season):

2015/16 - 66 (0) [1]
2014/15 - 70 (6) [1]
2013/14 - 79 (7) [3]
2012/13 - 73 (1) [1]
2011/12 - 69 (4) [2]
2010/11 - 68 (6) [1]
2009/10 - 70 (3) [2]
2008/09 - 72 (9) [3]
2007/08 - 76 (11) [3]
2006/07 - 68 (8) [2]

 

[Modo]

I've got time on my hands so I thought I'd look at the Premier league leaders at the end of January every season from 2000 and see who won the league. Gimme 10 mins.

 

[Modo]

Premier league table - Week 23

00 - 25 games played. Leaders: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man U[/bcolor]. 2nd: Leeds. Difference: 6 pts. Champions: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man U[/bcolor]

01 - 24 games played. Leaders: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man U[/bcolor]. 2nd: Sunderland. Difference: 13 pts. Champions: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man U[/bcolor]

02 - 25/24(Ars) games played. Leaders: Man U. 2nd: Arsenal. Difference: 1 pts. Champions: Arsenal

03 - 23 games played. Leaders: Arsenal. 2nd: Man U. Difference: 5 pts. Champions: Man U

04 - 24 games played. Leaders: [bcolor=#00ff00]Arsenal[/bcolor]. 2nd: Man U. Difference: 2 pts. Champions: [bcolor=#00ff00]Arsenal[/bcolor]

05 - 23 games played. Leaders: [bcolor=#00ff00]Chelsea[/bcolor]. 2nd: Arsenal. Difference: 10 pts. Champions: [bcolor=#00ff00]Chelsea[/bcolor]

06 - 23 games played. Leaders: [bcolor=#00ff00]Chelsea[/bcolor]. 2nd: Man U. Difference: 14 pts. Champions: [bcolor=#00ff00]Chelsea[/bcolor]

07 - 23 games played. Leaders: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man U[/bcolor]. 2nd: Chelsea. Difference: 6 pts. Champions: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man U[/bcolor]

08 - 23 games played. Leaders: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man U[/bcolor]. 2nd: Arsenal. Difference: 0 pts. Champions: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man U[/bcolor]

09 - 22(Man U)/23 games played. Leaders: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man U[/bcolor]. 2nd: Chelsea. Difference: 2 pts. Champions: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man U[/bcolor]

10 - 25 games played. Leaders: [bcolor=#00ff00]Chelsea[/bcolor]. 2nd: Man U. Difference: 2 pts. Champions: [bcolor=#00ff00]Chelsea[/bcolor]

11 - 24 games played. Leaders: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man U[/bcolor]. 2nd: Arsenal. Difference: 5 pts. Champions: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man U[/bcolor]

12 - 24 games played. Leaders: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man C[/bcolor]. 2nd: Man U. Difference: 2 pts. Champions: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man C[/bcolor]

13 - 23 games played. Leaders: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man U[/bcolor]. 2nd: Man C. Difference: 5 pts. Champions: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man U[/bcolor]

14 - 23 games played. Leaders: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man C[/bcolor]. 2nd: Arsenal. Difference: 1 pts. Champions: [bcolor=#00ff00]Man C[/bcolor]

15 - 23 games played. Leaders: [bcolor=#00ff00]Chelsea[/bcolor]. 2nd: Man C. Difference: 5 pts. Champions: [bcolor=#00ff00]Chelsea[/bcolor]

16 - 24 games played. Leaders: [bcolor=#00ff00]Leicester[/bcolor]. 2nd: Man C. Difference: 3 pts. Champions: [bcolor=#00ff00]Leicester[/bcolor]

Source: https://www.premierleague.com/tables?co=1&se=8&mw=1-23&ha=-1

So the question I wanted answered was "Can the league winner be determined by the end of January?".

Looking at the last 17 seasons of the premiership; in 15 of those seasons the leader of the league in week 23, which usually is around the end of January, also won the league.

The two seasons it didn't happen the difference in points was 1 point and 5 points in week 23 and in one of those season Arsenal had a game in hand.

Judging by these results is it safe to say that if we're still 6 points behind Chelsea by the end of January we won't win the league?
Well, there is no definitive answer. A lot factors comes into play, like the toughness of the remaining fixtures, external influences like injuries and suspensions etc.
However, it hasn't happened during the last 17 seasons in the premiership.

 

[mark1975]

In fear of sounding like Klopp, but;
13 games won in a row is obviously insanely good form by the Chavs. Does that mean they'll automatically win the next 19 games? No. Bans, injuries, luck, form and unpredictable events during games etc means everything can happen. It obviously makes them favourites come the end of the season but they havent won it in January.

Quite. Look at the run we went on the other year, it's what propelled us unto contention relatively late on, anything can happen between now and the end of the season. I agree that the Top 6 probably are the strongest teams in the league by some stretch though. And I can't see United finishing outside the top 4, I think their individual class is eventually starting to tell. As is Mourinho's influence, unfortunately.

 

[Esoteric]

I genuinely thought there was a lot of bollocks being spouted in this thread and that at this early stage, any, of a number of teams can still win. However, the above table shows a significant trend and I'm sold on it.

 

[FoxForceFive]

I genuinely thought there was a lot of bollocks being spouted in this thread and that at this early stage, any, of a number of teams can still win. However, the above table shows a significant trend and I'm sold on it.

Yeah, it is pretty hard to argue those facts tbf.

Nevertheless, there's always exceptions & if we can somehow keep up the pace & pressure then we'll be in a good position to take advantage of any dropped points.

 

[.G.]

Yup, surely players like Moses will have a dip in form. Our problem is going to be keeping up with them until it happens

Moses is off to the AFCON I think but unfortuantely they have bloody Willian ready to step in.

 

[.G.]

Did you post on here before? Possibly under the username Milner? Same avatar.

No I didn't. I joined up yesterday for the first time. I've used the animated version of that avatar elsewhere for years but it won't let me do that here.

I also don't know how to multi quote so apologies for the the 3 replies in a row!

 

[.G.]

Hmmmm hello and welcome - A rather beguiling first post. Can you explain 'Spurs don't Spurs it against Chelsea'? Cheers flower. 🙂

I just mean when you think they'll be decent and get a result somewhere they totally fold and fuck it up, they did it at the manc's every season despite being in some good positions in games and they fucked up their league challenge too, a bit like Arsenal can be relied on to be all style and no substance year in year out.

 

[Insignificance]

We have a significant month Ahead of us. Away to an inform scum, 2 semis in League cup and possibly 2 FA cup games, totalling 8 games when we host Chelsea 31st of January. Not much time for rest. Chelsea obviously haven't got the 2 semis giving them more time on their hands for recovery. If we manage to cut Down until we meet them I will be overly impressed With Our boys!!!

 

[mark1975]

Moses is off to the AFCON I think but unfortuantely they have bloody Willian ready to step in.

Well Willian is already one of the first names on the team sheet, so someone else will have to step in for Moses, but with a squad like that it's difficult to see them struggling to replace one player.

 

[.G.]

Yeah they have annoying strength in depth. Hopefully we get the points today and just as importantly not get any injuries, then hope Spurs can dent their hopes but I wouldn't bank on it.

 

[RichC]

Yeah, all we can do is put some pressure on them by winning today. Just got to hope at some point they slip up and we've managed to stay as close as we can to them.

 

[.G.]

Aye, its annoying as fuck we get a record points haul at halfway point and there's still someone else who does better. Cursed.

 

[RichC]

Does seem when we're in with a chance it's along with 3 or 4 other sides.

 

[mark1975]

The league is way more competitive these days though. The best team might not be as good as some of the past sides, but the strength of the top 6 or so is really really strong.

 

[.G.]

5 teams averaging more than 2 points a game this season, last season the highest anyone managed was 1.83 and that was Leicester. Our timing is shit.

LCFC got higher after January but up to Christmas I think thats what it was.

 

[Woland]

Mad that stat about the end of January. I've always believed the it's all to play for it can all change mantra, but I've been duped. Might as well give the trophy out 1st Feb.

Oh well, next year's our year.

As for the topic, in the predictions topic at the start of the season I said the top four would be us Chelsea, arse and spurs, with citeh and manure outside it. Do I win £5?

 

[.G.]

Apparently the team first on new years day has finished second more times than first in recent years. I'll cling to that one myself.

 

[King Binny]

 

[6TimesaRed]

Man Utd are so going to Finish in the Top 4..

We need to do seem to put a halt to the proceedings..

 

[binomial]

5 points separates 2nd from 6th.

 

[Hansern]

Yeah, Utd will probably finish in the top 4.
It will be such a tough fight for the last 3 places after Chelsea.
Spurs look strong at the moment. Not sure about City or Arsenal but they're always up there and will be now as well.

We just have to keep going.

 

[King Binny]

 

[King Binny]

The "6 pointers" fixtures

Chelsea (2H 2A)
1 Feb Liverpool v Chelsea

4 Feb Chelsea v Arsenal

6 Apr Chelsea v Man City

15 Apr Man Utd v Chelsea

Liverpool (3H 2A)
16 Jan Man Utd v Liverpool

1 Feb Liverpool v Chelsea

12 Feb Liverpool v Tottenham

4 Mar Liverpool v Arsenal

18 Mar Man City v Liverpool

Tottenham (2H 2A)
22 Jan Man City v Tottenham

12 Feb Liverpool v Tottenham

29 Apr Tottenham v Arsenal

13 May Tottenham v Man Utd

Man City (3H 2A)
22 Jan Man City v Tottenham

26 Feb Man City v Man Utd

18 Mar Man City v Liverpool

1 Apr Arsenal v Man City

6 Apr Chelsea v Man City

Arsenal (2H 3A)
4 Feb Chelsea v Arsenal

4 Mar Liverpool v Arsenal

1 Apr Arsenal v Man City

29 Apr Tottenham v Arsenal

6 May Arsenal v Man Utd

Man Utd (2H 3A)
16 Jan Man Utd v Liverpool

26 Feb Man City v Man Utd

15 Apr Man Utd v Chelsea

6 May Arsenal v Man Utd

13 May Tottenham v Man Utd


Worth noting that we don't face any of the top 6 sides in Apr and May (Arsenal and Man Utd have the most top 6 clashes in these months).

 

[Frogfish]

I genuinely thought there was a lot of bollocks being spouted in this thread and that at this early stage, any, of a number of teams can still win. However, the above table shows a significant trend and I'm sold on it.

Except that table is for standings at the end of January and it's only the 5th today ....... with Chelsea still to come to Anfield before the end of the month 😉

 

[Frogfish]

Moses is off to the AFCON I think but unfortuantely they have bloody Willian ready to step in.

Am I mistaken ? I thought Moses was Nigerian and Nigeria didn't qualify.

 

[doctor_mac]

Am I mistaken ? I thought Moses was Nigerian and Nigeria didn't qualify.

They qualified for the U21 tournament for which according to his totally kosher birth certificate, Moses is eligible.

 

[.G.]

Am I mistaken ? I thought Moses was Nigerian and Nigeria didn't qualify.

No its me who was mistaken, he's not going anywhere. I had just assumed they'd be in it.

 

[Frogfish]

No its me who was mistaken, he's not going anywhere. I had just assumed they'd be in it.

Nigeria not qualifying was a major shock and a great pity for us - Chelsea (3, I think) and City (1) would both have lost players.