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Search for a new #9

I did think this morning that Danns (in theory) ticks a lot of boxes for him. Its just hard to judge atm

I feel like he’s a bit, not quite fully physically developed, if that makes sense, like he’s not quite filled out yet - he looks a bit uncoordinated still - maybe it’s the hair.
 
It's just people using stats to how they see fit, nothing wrong with fact stating is there?

Some people like to use stats like goals per minute, some like to use expected goals, some like to count/discount the number of pens they've scored. Some people like to use all of them.

Give those 9 pens to Jackson/Sterling/Mudryk and all of a sudden you can make a case for them being "better" than a Diaz, Martinelli, Doku, Kulusevski etc.

Depends on the “fact” though doesn’t it and probs why you should use a whole host of stats to determine what exactly is going on.

Pens still have to be scored.

Conversion rates and various ratios probably tell more of a story about forwards - I don’t think simply removing penalties from the equation is particularly insightful vecsuse you’re judging overall contribution.

I think it’s mad he walked into Chelsea as a 21yo and somehow managed to convince everyone to let him take the penalties - fair play to him.

They’ve had a fuck load of penalties this season as well. That’s odd.
 
Depends on the “fact” though doesn’t it and probs why you should use a whole host of stats to determine what exactly is going on.

Pens still have to be scored.

Conversion rates and various ratios probably tell more of a story about forwards - I don’t think simply removing penalties from the equation is particularly insightful vecsuse you’re judging overall contribution.

I think it’s mad he walked into Chelsea as a 21yo and somehow managed to convince everyone to let him take the penalties - fair play to him.

They’ve had a fuck load of penalties this season as well. That’s odd.
Exactly. The more stats the better I say, except the ones such as xG or anything else with "expected" in the name as they're based on predictions and not real time.

They still have to be scored but becomes a valid argument when the conversation involves a club (let's say Utd) potentially signing him. Does he take the pens off Bruno? Probably not. So that'd 45% of pens he's scored this league is automatically wiped away. Maybe he'd have had 4-5 Prem goals last season for City if he was their pen taker?

Who were Chelsea's pen takers last season? Mostly Jorginho and Havertz had a few. Both left for Arsenal before Palmer arrived.....my take is he didn't have much convincing to do, he walked into a clean slate where they didn't even have a designated pen taker.

They've had the most awarded with 12 which is quite a bit different to the 3 (joint worst with a few others) they were awarded last season.
 
Exactly. The more stats the better I say, except the ones such as xG stat as that's based on predictions and not real time.

They still have to be scored but becomes a valid argument when the conversation involves a club (let's say Utd) potentially signing him. Does he take the pens off Bruno? Probably not. So that'd 45% of pens he's scored this league is automatically wiped away. Maybe he'd have had 4-5 Prem goals last season for City if he was their pen taker?

Who were Chelsea's pen takers last season? Mostly Jorginho and Havertz had a few. Both left for Arsenal before Palmer arrived.....my take is he didn't have much convincing to do, he walked into a clean slate where they didn't even have a designated pen taker.

Yeah -,they’re all a pack of twats at Chelsea, not surprised he was able to walk in and snag that role.
 
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Isak’s leading the premier league in terms of goals scored per minute when you filter out all the guys that have played 5 minutes and scored.

The top 3 would be Isak, Haaland & Palmer.

That’s based on played around 2,000 minutes this season - Salah & Son would round out the top 5 although you have the likes of Wood, Trossard, Jota, Adebayo, Olise & Richarlison that have posted good ratios from Les game time.
Alternatively - filtering out PKs which anyone could take.
And adding Jota just as a FYI and because he's 12th in the PL Top goalscorers list (without penalties) :

Jota 1 goal per 115.00 mins (1,150 mins)
Haaland 1 goal per 128.53 mins (2,185 mins)
Isak 1 goal per 139.29 mins (1,950 mins)
Watkins 1 goal per 156.47 mins (2,973 mins)
Foden 1 goal per 157.69 mins (2,523 mins)
Palmer 1 goal per 167.46 mins (2,177 mins)
Bowen 1 goal per 177.50 mins (2,840 mins)
Son 1 goal per 178.43 mins (2,498 mins)
Nunez 1 goal per 181.45 mins (1,996 mins)
Salah 1 goal per 187.83 mins (2,254 mins)
Solanke 1 goal per 195.00 mins (3,120 mins)
Saka 1 goal per 251.36 mins (2,765 mins)
 
By the way - when did this fad of not counting penalties start when assessing players and why?

It feels a bit contrived.
Sky, ESPN etc. love to use the total goals scored but it's not truly representative of the actual goal scoring ability of any player to include them (maybe of how good they are at scoring penalties). It's hardly a fad - Google it and you'll find scores of charts listing non-penalty top goalscorers.

Since any player in any team could be nominated to take them it seems more than fair to discount them if you want a true representation of player vs player and goals per minute. As has already been stated Macca and Nunez percentage wise have far better records than Mo who's penalty record is average (ave. is scoring 80%). He's scored 5 from 7 in the PL this season.
 
I feel like he’s a bit, not quite fully physically developed, if that makes sense, like he’s not quite filled out yet - he looks a bit uncoordinated still - maybe it’s the hair.
He spends a summer bulking up a bit, theres every chance he might be a perfect 9 for the system

i like an ungainly striker as it's hard to tell what they're gonna do if they have a low centre of gravity.
 
He spends a summer bulking up a bit, theres every chance he might be a perfect 9 for the system

i like an ungainly striker as it's hard to tell what they're gonna do if they have a low centre of gravity.
Danns is perfect then - considering how much time he spends on his knees.
 
Not look for a new number 9 at present, here my reasons why..

In any game we play look at how oftem the players look to feed goal scoring opportunities Salah, and compere it to how often, Nunez, Daiz, Jota and Gakpo get feed these opportunities when Salah is on the field.

And how often has Salah been missing his chances.
Is nunez realy wasteful, Or Is it that Salah; given that he gets more goal scoring opportunities just looks better than Nunuz, Daiz, Jota and Gakpo
because he has double or more the opportunities to score than his fellow strikers..?

And If he scores during a game these misses are over look to a large part..

I have been saying all season plus (Not during the AFCON) That everyone from the goal keeper and Midfield players look for salah too often to the detriment of the other strikers, but more to the detriment of Nunez

Edit:-
And just look at how many time that Salah plays poor, and wayward passes to other strikers... This was even the case when he was playing a long side Bobby and Sadio
 
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Not look for a new number 9 at present, here my reasons why..

In any game we play look at how oftem the players look to feed goal scoring opportunities Salah, and compere it to how often, Nunez, Daiz, Jota and Gakpo get feed these opportunities when Salah is on the field.

And how often has Salah been missing his chances.
Is nunez realy wasteful, Or Is it that Salah; given that he gets more goal scoring opportunities just looks better than Nunuz, Daiz, Jota and Gakpo
because he has double or more the opportunities to score than his fellow strikers..?

And If he scores during a game these misses are over look to a large part..

I have been saying all season plus (Not during the AFCON) That everyone from the goal keeper and Midfield players look for salah too often to the detriment of the other strikers, but more to the detriment of Nunez

Nope. Disagree.

They've all been shite, but Salah has been less shite.
 
Nope. Disagree.

They've all been shite, but Salah has been less shite.
Why, because he has converted more of his chance...?... Yes it looks that way untill you take into account thaat he gets more chances than anyone else... If you score every 3rd chance and you get 9 chances a game you will also look better than someone who scores every 3rd chances but only gets 3 chances per game
 
If you score every 3rd chance and you get 9 chances a game you will also look better than someone who scores every 3rd chances but only gets 3 chances per game
But that's not someone who converts more of their chances though is it?

I'd say most of our chances this season has fallen to Darwin and not Mo & no he hasn't looked better for it.

We should be buying a new RW (maybe even 2) and cashing in on Mo.
 
Why, because he has converted more of his chance...?... Yes it looks that way untill you take into account thaat he gets more chances than anyone else... If you score every 3rd chance and you get 9 chances a game you will also look better than someone who scores every 3rd chances but only gets 3 chances per game
.... But either way they're both scoring a third of their chances, it doesn't matter?
 
I would sell 2 out of 5, needs a refresh. Only one I would keep for sure is Nunez as I would give him one more season, rest open to offers based on the new manager’s plans.
 
I'd like to keep Nunez, Diaz and Jota. Gakpo I'm fine either way. Salah - everyone knows my opinion there ! I want the money to fund a younger player.

OK why Jota - sick note that he is. Simply because as I showed earlier (here: https://www.sixcrazyminutes.com/threads/search-for-a-new-9.201888/post-2318620 ) he is THE best scorer of non-penalty goals per minutes played, in the PL - better than Haaland and almost x2 the rate of Nunez and Salah.

So with 5-6 forwards (newbie + Danns + those 4 above) he'll still make a real difference, even with half his life spent with physios.
 
Jota is probably the one I'd be least likely to sell to be honest.

The only real minus point on him is his injury record, but he still plays a decent enough number of games and more often than not performs when he does play.

There's pluses and minuses for all of them.
 
There's no point keeping a player who will miss important games due to injury where his presence is sorely missed. At his age the injuries will take their toll on the body.
 
Alternatively - filtering out PKs which anyone could take.
And adding Jota just as a FYI and because he's 12th in the PL Top goalscorers list (without penalties) :

Jota 1 goal per 115.00 mins (1,150 mins)
Haaland 1 goal per 128.53 mins (2,185 mins)
Isak 1 goal per 139.29 mins (1,950 mins)
Watkins 1 goal per 156.47 mins (2,973 mins)
Foden 1 goal per 157.69 mins (2,523 mins)
Palmer 1 goal per 167.46 mins (2,177 mins)
Bowen 1 goal per 177.50 mins (2,840 mins)
Son 1 goal per 178.43 mins (2,498 mins)
Nunez 1 goal per 181.45 mins (1,996 mins)
Salah 1 goal per 187.83 mins (2,254 mins)
Solanke 1 goal per 195.00 mins (3,120 mins)
Saka 1 goal per 251.36 mins (2,765 mins)

You probably should drop Wood, Trossard, Richarlison & Hwang back in there as well.

Then we can overlay with conversion ratios to start to get more of an idea who’s actually the sort of clinical cutting edge we need.

My guess is it’ll continue to point to Isak.
 
The nerds are back in town we are gonna sign someone from Burnley cos he has great metrics
 
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