Aging Squad - where do we stand?

[Frogfish]

A lot of discussion recently about the average age of our squad, or more specifically aging players. I saw a table recently which stated we have the oldest starting XI of 29.4 yrs, which clearly didn't seem right at all and must have included Milner and Firmino as starters. So what is the reality?

Note I'm excluding Milner from all calculations because we all know that this is his last season and even then he is only going to be used sparingly and in exceptional circumstances (last 20 mins, FAC/LC or during injury crisis).

Rather than taking the whole squad and dividing it by the number, which is very misleading, I'm concentrating on those that are statistically relevant (or will be over the coming seasons).

Looking at what could be considered our starting XI this season (the usual + Konate who Klopp now seems to prefer ahead of Matip and Nunez in place of Jota/Firmino) the average age is 27.36 yrs old. About perfect for a PL / CL challenging team.
If we replace Hendo with Elliott (which could be the reality over the course of this season) then that drops to 26.18. And including the other important members of the squad (by game time) : Elliott, Gomez, Matip, Carvalho, Firmino & Jota, that is 26.44 yrs old.

As the issue isn't with the average age let's look at the older individuals bearing in mind advanced modern medical techniques and fitness & diet regimes :

Alisson 29 : definitely no problem here, another 5 yrs or more remain.
VvD 31 : CBs tend to last longer than most other positions and he can be considered in his prime so maybe another 3-4 yrs at the top.
Thiago 31 : injury prone though no problem with current ability, at the top of his game with stats comparable to when much younger at Barca & Bayern. I'd give him this and next season.
Hendo 31 : Still capable of superb games but the consistency has gone as has his stamina. Elliott will replace him this season.
Matip 30 : Injury prone but was superb last season. Can be a member of the squad for the next 2 seasons.
Salah 30 : He is clearly in supreme condition and rarely gets injured. I can see at least 2 more years at the top level and another 2 in the squad, unless he decides to leave for more game time.
Firmino 30 : This will be his last season with us.

There are no real age issues with any others for the next 2-3 years (Robbo 28 & Keita 27).

The succession is likely to be along the lines (replacing as a starter or in the squad) of :

2022/23
Henderson by Elliott
Mo (challenged by NEW)
Thiago (challenged by NEW)

2023/24
Matip by NEW
Firmino by NEW

I can't see any serious age related issues to be honest.

Thoughts?

 

[The Nomad]

We should have started the succession at least 2 summers ago. But when I (and others) brought it up. We were shot down.

Ideally you should be carrying a maximum of 5 over 30s in your first team squad in my opinion.


FWIW. I'm happy with our succession up front. Just need to replicate it elsewhere.

 

[Tinto]

I think we’ve been getting in two first teamers per season recently:-

Thiago, Jota
Konate, Diaz
Nunez, new midfielder (probably in Jan)

That rate of transition is fine.

The problem is Thiago and Jota.

Both good enough to start but Thiago isn’t in the right age bracket for future-proofing the team despite his quality. Jota’s become a bit of a squad player since Diaz’s arrival.

Actually, we’ve probably spent too much on the forward line recently as well

 

[Tinto]

Or the problem is Jones rather than Thiago as Jones hasn’t really developed as hoped.

 

[MomoWASright]

We should have started the succession at least 2 summers ago. But when I (and others) brought it up. We were shot down.

Ideally you should be carrying a maximum of 5 over 30s in your first team squad in my opinion.


FWIW. I'm happy with our succession up front. Just need to replicate it elsewhere.

I believe we would’ve sold Firmino a few seasons ago had it not been for lockdown. That would’ve started the ball rolling on us moving players and bringing in others.

 

[bluebell]

Every season Klopp sends out the message the cupboard is dry, so he has to work with what he has. We bought the turkish kid a couple seasons back on loan and he did a decent job until he too got injured. I think we might need to look at the loan market as a short term fix. With the supposed increase in revenue from the expansion, maybe we might be able to have a net spend of more than £40m.

 

[tomasjj]

Elliot, while having lots of qualities, cannot replace Hendo´s atleticism and defensive contributions.

 

[MomoWASright]

I think Elliott does get back and help. He’s still only 19. He’s going to be a beast at 22.

 

[Frogfish]

I think Elliott does get back and help. He’s still only 19. He’s going to be a beast at 22.

And he's already miles ahead of Hendo in the athleticism stakes now Hendo's age seems to be catching up with him.

 

[mark1975]

Elliot, while having lots of qualities, cannot replace Hendo´s atleticism and defensive contributions.

I don't know, I thought he was defensively probably our best midfielder against Palace, he was constantly tracking and winning the ball back and harassing players as Hendo did at his best. While he doesn't quite have the calming and commanding presence of Henderson, Henderson himself didn't have that until his mid 20's.

I think that's one thing we have really struggled to do, to bring in players in that sort of mid 20's bracket. When we have, we've had to be really shrewd and do our homework on players who haven't necessarily been obvious targets or choices of the fans, but whom have worked out well. The issue with bringing in players at that age is they are generally established, and that's where City financially have the upper-hand.

The big worry at the minute is how much of an impact the loss of Michael Edwards will be. He knew the market well, he identified viable targets at reasonable prices and he targeted players who fit the dynamic. It only takes one Summer of getting it wrong and you lose ground and confidence.

 

[Beamrider]

30 is not the barrier it used to be with improved fitness and better lifestyle / professionalism for most players.
The issue for me (long-term) is in two areas - full-back and midfield. Klopp's system requires a lot of running / sprinting from those players, relative to what we've always expected from those positions until the last 10 years or so. Obviously the ages of our full-backs suggest there shouldn't be a problem there for a good few years, but the chances are that they won't have as long a career as they might have done in another system which didn't require them to press so-high and bomb forward at every opportunity - over time all that sprinting will take its toll.
Likewise in the midfield, Klopp works his midfielders hard. A guy like Milner is an out-lier to still be going at his age, but look at what happened to Can and Wijnaldum. Klopp knew they were leaving and ran them into the ground in their final seasons and neither of them has been the same since. Same is true of Lallana as well, although his injury / fatigue issues kicked in before he left. Midfield is the area where we need to focus our succession planning more clearly, and ideally Bellingham will be a part of that, plus we hope Elliot / Carvalho / Jones will fulfil their potential. But all of those guys are going to have to work their bollocks off for pretty much their whole career, because that's how we play. And once the players in that position become susceptible to injury (as is the case with all of our first-choice regulars) then they're always going to be missing games here and there because of the intensity they have to play at (and because they're professional enough to pay the way they are told to).

 

[Hansern]

Konate will be our starting CB during this season I reckon if he continues to develop. He's 23

 

[StevieM]

Or the problem is Jones rather than Thiago as Jones hasn’t really developed as hoped.

I think this is a little harsh.

Yes, he didn’t push on last season, don’t know why - while he didn’t sparkle he also wasn’t awful in the way that Keita can be. (While nit being as good either).

He’s still young - younger than Foden, Tchouameni, etc - but he needs to break through this year and start getting regular games - next season he needs to be registered.

Trouble is - I think he needs a good stretch of games to get into a groove - and I don’t know whether that’ll happen with Harvey getting that opportunity on the other side.

Its’s a tricky one.

 

[bluebell]

I think this is a little harsh.

Yes, he didn’t push on last season, don’t know why - while he didn’t sparkle he also wasn’t awful in the way that Keita can be. (While nit being as good either).

He’s still young - younger than Foden, Tchouameni, etc - but he needs to break through this year and start getting regular games - next season he needs to be registered.

Trouble is - I think he needs a good stretch of games to get into a groove - and I don’t know whether that’ll happen with Harvey getting that opportunity on the other side.

Its’s a tricky one.

Jones is physically too weak to be 1st choice. He holds the ball up well but due to his slender frame I see him coming out 2nd in duels and challanges.

 

[Frogfish]

... The big worry at the minute is how much of an impact the loss of Michael Edwards will be. He knew the market well, he identified viable targets at reasonable prices and he targeted players who fit the dynamic. It only takes one Summer of getting it wrong and you lose ground and confidence.

Actually I don't think it was Edwards that identifies targets - he just goes and gets them (of course he'd be part of the committee who decide which players to go for).

Ian Graham and the scouts are the men who identify the players (from what I can discern - I may be wrong). First the scouts and then Graham puts their stats through the wringer? It could be vice versa. So it may be that Edwards' departure doesn't affect us too much.

NYTimes
Graham’s weightiest responsibility is helping Liverpool decide which players to acquire. He does that by feeding information on games into his formulas. What he doesn’t do is make evaluations by watching those games. “I don’t like video,” he says. “It biases you.”

The Athletic
Michael Edwards does not want Liverpool’s scouts to be cautious when delivering their opinions. This explains why the club’s sporting director has implemented a simple grading system which makes it clear to him what they really think.
Each player under review is ranked from A to D. Top marks means urgent attention is required because the player is considered by the scout to have the capacity to replace someone in Liverpool’s first team. Grade B means the player could supplement what Liverpool already have or possess the potential to develop the squad either now or in the future. While C merits checking in with progress from time to time, D, simply, is considered not good enough.
Liverpool’s database is dominated by C and D grades because of the high standards being delivered by Jurgen Klopp’s side. An A is very rare and even rarer is a lightning bolt moment that leads a scout to tell Edwards that Liverpool must act straight away. Even a D will have had ample opportunities to impress. From the outside, it might be viewed as a waste of time watching a full-back fifteen or even 20 times only to form a conclusion that is not particularly positive but such exhaustive processes can lead scouts towards another player’s talent and with that, another trail begins.

 

[keniget]

We should have started the succession at least 2 summers ago. But when I (and others) brought it up. We were shot down.

Very much this on both counts.

It only takes one Summer of getting it wrong and you lose ground and confidence.

To add to this, it only takes one bad season and others can lose confidence in you. We are an attractive proposition to top players and young talent when we're flying... one poor season and a scrap for fourth and do we still get a player like Bellingham? We struggled to get Tchouameni after a ridiculous season - that's how competitive if it is for these types of players. That's the risk you take with waiting and waiting.

I understand that Klopp likes a small well drilled squad full of nice guys he likes and trusts but sometimes I don't really get what goes on behind the scenes and (without wanting to go all Ross) I think we've made some poor decisions. This is not hindsight is 20/20 either because I've said so at at the time. Ox seeing out his contract here is a prime example. Firmino was noticably declining 2-3 seasons ago and he's still here. Henderson got a new contract and prime squad spot despite being on the wane. VVD got a new contract before we knew what kind of player we were going to end up with. Milner is a 100 years old and still Klopp's go to man. Wijnaldum leaves on a free, Keita is still in and out of the squad due to poor form and injuries and our only replacement is an aging injury prone Thiago (which was more of an opportunistic signing than a planned one).

The players with question marks hanging over them are likely to end up either leaving on a free or have big fat contracts that will mean we are realistically not going to a get a fee + will have to pay off their contract if we do want rid.

The question I have at this point is - what finances will be available to perform any surgery required?

 

[Hansern]

We seemed to be quite popular even though we struggled in 20/21. Klopp will always have pull regardless as long as we are in the CL.

 

[bluebell]

Very much this on both counts.



To add to this, it only takes one bad season and others can lose confidence in you. We are an attractive proposition to top players and young talent when we're flying... one poor season and a scrap for fourth and do we still get a player like Bellingham? We struggled to get Tchouameni after a ridiculous season - that's how competitive if it is for these types of players. That's the risk you take with waiting and waiting.

I understand that Klopp likes a small well drilled squad full of nice guys he likes and trusts but sometimes I don't really get what goes on behind the scenes and (without wanting to go all Ross) I think we've made some poor decisions. This is not hindsight is 20/20 either because I've said so at at the time. Ox seeing out his contract here is a prime example. Firmino was noticably declining 2-3 seasons ago and he's still here. Henderson got a new contract and prime squad spot despite being on the wane. VVD got a new contract before we knew what kind of player we were going to end up with. Milner is a 100 years old and still Klopp's go to man. Wijnaldum leaves on a free, Keita is still in and out of the squad due to poor form and injuries and our only replacement is an aging injury prone Thiago (which was more of an opportunistic signing than a planned one).

The players with question marks hanging over them are likely to end up either leaving on a free or have big fat contracts that will mean we are realistically not going to a get a fee + will have to pay off their contract if we do want rid.

The question I have at this point is - what finances will be available to perform any surgery required?

Just enough for Adama