Interesting article from the Echo:
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On Sunday, Liverpool were supposed to make their big statement. The highly publicised match at Old Trafford against their fierce rivals was portrayed as make or break in terms of their bid for the Premier League title, even if that narrative was somewhat unfair. A win would've restored the gap to second place to three points, whereas a loss would have allowed Man City to legitimately claim the top spot that they've been chasing for months.
The contest came to an anticlimax though, with the match ending 0-0. Jurgen Klopp's defence remained strong throughout the game, with just five shots conceded, but the attack failed to catch fire. The Reds accumulated just one shot on target, and ultimately failed to score as a result.
Strangely though, despite desperately needing a goal or an offensive spark, arguably the most prolific scorer in the club's history ended the match on the bench. Mohamed Salah, who's the league's current joint-top scorer, as well as being a record breaker last season, was substituted on the 79th minute for Divock Origi.
The switch occurred not necessarily because Origi was the answer, but because Salah evidently wasn't. His performance against the Manchester club was reckless, loose and unthreatening, so much so that he became a hindrance to his team rather than a solution.
Worryingly though, a theme appears to have developed relative to the Egyptian's performance in the supposed 'big' matches. So far this season, the top six sides that he's featured against in the league include Arsenal (twice), Manchester United (twice), Man City (twice), Chelsea and Tottenham. In those eight matches, Salah has scored once - and that was a penalty.
This lack of influence is further emphasised when delving into his Expected Goals (xG); xG provides an insight into the underlying story behind offensive performance, rather than simply focusing on the outcome of whether the ball hit the back of the net or not. Salah's xG average per 90 in the Premier League this season across all matches is 0.54, essentially meaning that he roughly has a 54% chance of scoring in each match that he plays based on the chances he's presented with. This is bettered only by Sergio Aguero in terms of players that have played over 1500 minutes, as the Argentine posts an incredible 0.8 or 80% chance of scoring per 90.
However, the xG that Salah has posted in the 'big' matches is significantly worse. Against United at Old Trafford recently, his xG was 0.01 based on the free-kick that he hit into the stands, as that was his only shot. Before that, in the defeat to City at the Etihad, his xG was 0.13. Even when taking part in high scoring wins at Anfield, his xG still signals that he's not involved in a productive attacking sense. In the 5-1 win over Arsenal at Anfield, his xG was 0.13 excluding the penalty. In the 3-1 victory over Jose Mourinho's United, his xG was 0.02.
Interestingly, this appears to be an issue that has progressively gotten worse with time during the season. Liverpool's first two 'big' opponents earlier in the campaign were Tottenham followed by Chelsea, and Salah's underlying xG was good in both these contests. The Egyptian didn't score, but he posted 0.84 at Wembley, followed by 0.47 against Maurizio Sarri's side.Those two underlying numbers - against Spurs and Chelsea - offered hope and reassurance that although Salah wasn't scoring, he was still getting into dangerous positions and providing a threat.
Presently though, troubling the scoreboard is an issue - and so are receiving good, goalscoring chances. Ultimately, there oddly appears to be no evident pattern that could perhaps explain Salah's lack of threat in the bigger matches currently. He may have been man-marked out of one or two matches in isolation, but that wouldn't explain his underperformance on the whole. He's played in different positions, but that's a change he's coped with perfectly fine for the most part against other opposing teams. He may be facing better opponents, but not to the extent whereby he's rendered totally ineffective.
This season, perhaps top teams are simply more concerned by his quality and are thus clogging the space around him effectively. It may be that Liverpool's more pragmatic approach this season has occasionally isolated Salah in attack while placing an increased offensive burden on his shoulders. Indeed, possibly the absence of an attacking midfielder such as Phillipe Coutinho or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain behind Salah is being felt - or potentially, it may all just be a coincidence.
It's an enigmatic problem for Klopp to solve moving forward, undoubtedly. But it looks as though Liverpool are somewhat lucky that they have to face just two more top six opponents before the end of the season, so it is not a solution in desperate need of discovery. Notably too, those opponents are Chelsea and Spurs, the two that Salah posted strong xG numbers against in September, so it will be fascinating to see how he fares at Anfield as both pressure and expectation is placed upon him to produce.
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On Sunday, Liverpool were supposed to make their big statement. The highly publicised match at Old Trafford against their fierce rivals was portrayed as make or break in terms of their bid for the Premier League title, even if that narrative was somewhat unfair. A win would've restored the gap to second place to three points, whereas a loss would have allowed Man City to legitimately claim the top spot that they've been chasing for months.
The contest came to an anticlimax though, with the match ending 0-0. Jurgen Klopp's defence remained strong throughout the game, with just five shots conceded, but the attack failed to catch fire. The Reds accumulated just one shot on target, and ultimately failed to score as a result.
Strangely though, despite desperately needing a goal or an offensive spark, arguably the most prolific scorer in the club's history ended the match on the bench. Mohamed Salah, who's the league's current joint-top scorer, as well as being a record breaker last season, was substituted on the 79th minute for Divock Origi.
The switch occurred not necessarily because Origi was the answer, but because Salah evidently wasn't. His performance against the Manchester club was reckless, loose and unthreatening, so much so that he became a hindrance to his team rather than a solution.
Worryingly though, a theme appears to have developed relative to the Egyptian's performance in the supposed 'big' matches. So far this season, the top six sides that he's featured against in the league include Arsenal (twice), Manchester United (twice), Man City (twice), Chelsea and Tottenham. In those eight matches, Salah has scored once - and that was a penalty.
This lack of influence is further emphasised when delving into his Expected Goals (xG); xG provides an insight into the underlying story behind offensive performance, rather than simply focusing on the outcome of whether the ball hit the back of the net or not. Salah's xG average per 90 in the Premier League this season across all matches is 0.54, essentially meaning that he roughly has a 54% chance of scoring in each match that he plays based on the chances he's presented with. This is bettered only by Sergio Aguero in terms of players that have played over 1500 minutes, as the Argentine posts an incredible 0.8 or 80% chance of scoring per 90.
However, the xG that Salah has posted in the 'big' matches is significantly worse. Against United at Old Trafford recently, his xG was 0.01 based on the free-kick that he hit into the stands, as that was his only shot. Before that, in the defeat to City at the Etihad, his xG was 0.13. Even when taking part in high scoring wins at Anfield, his xG still signals that he's not involved in a productive attacking sense. In the 5-1 win over Arsenal at Anfield, his xG was 0.13 excluding the penalty. In the 3-1 victory over Jose Mourinho's United, his xG was 0.02.
Interestingly, this appears to be an issue that has progressively gotten worse with time during the season. Liverpool's first two 'big' opponents earlier in the campaign were Tottenham followed by Chelsea, and Salah's underlying xG was good in both these contests. The Egyptian didn't score, but he posted 0.84 at Wembley, followed by 0.47 against Maurizio Sarri's side.Those two underlying numbers - against Spurs and Chelsea - offered hope and reassurance that although Salah wasn't scoring, he was still getting into dangerous positions and providing a threat.
Presently though, troubling the scoreboard is an issue - and so are receiving good, goalscoring chances. Ultimately, there oddly appears to be no evident pattern that could perhaps explain Salah's lack of threat in the bigger matches currently. He may have been man-marked out of one or two matches in isolation, but that wouldn't explain his underperformance on the whole. He's played in different positions, but that's a change he's coped with perfectly fine for the most part against other opposing teams. He may be facing better opponents, but not to the extent whereby he's rendered totally ineffective.
This season, perhaps top teams are simply more concerned by his quality and are thus clogging the space around him effectively. It may be that Liverpool's more pragmatic approach this season has occasionally isolated Salah in attack while placing an increased offensive burden on his shoulders. Indeed, possibly the absence of an attacking midfielder such as Phillipe Coutinho or Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain behind Salah is being felt - or potentially, it may all just be a coincidence.
It's an enigmatic problem for Klopp to solve moving forward, undoubtedly. But it looks as though Liverpool are somewhat lucky that they have to face just two more top six opponents before the end of the season, so it is not a solution in desperate need of discovery. Notably too, those opponents are Chelsea and Spurs, the two that Salah posted strong xG numbers against in September, so it will be fascinating to see how he fares at Anfield as both pressure and expectation is placed upon him to produce.
