Last night may well have been the moment Rick Perry's hopes of winning the Republican nomination finally ended. Having already seen his polling surge rapidly reverse - largely because of poor performances in the last two debates - he put in another poor performance as the candidates clashed in New Hampshire. Worse, he followed up the debate with an American history gaffe, saying:
"actually the reason that we fought the revolution in the 16th century was to get away from that kind of onerous crown if you will".
As a result, he was subjected to merciless Twitter mockery, via the hashtag #perryhistory. It's taken him a month to go from frontrunner to national joke.
But, as I've said before, Perry's loss is Cain's gain. For months, Herman Cain's presidential campaign has gone largely unnoticed by the media. That has begun to change in the last few weeks, as the reality of his strong poll numbers has become too clear to ignore. He now sits in second place nationally, and leads recent polls in several states - including, crucially, Iowa. As the candidate in the ascendancy, it was inevitable that he would receive more attention in last night's debate than he had before.
All Cain wanted to talk about was his "999" tax plan, his "bold solution" to grow the economy. But the other candidates chose to talk about it too. Jon Huntsman claimed it wasn't do-able, quipping "It's a catchy phrase, in fact I thought it was the price of a pizza". Michele Bachmann joked that "when you take the 999 plan and turn it upside down, I think the devil's in the details", while Rick Santorum said no one wanted a national sales tax (the third 9). When Cain attacked Romney for the complexity of his proposals ("Can you name all 59 points in your 160-page economic plan?"😉, the frontrunner turned it back on Cain: "Simple answers are often very helpful, but oftentimes inadequate", he retorted.
Overall, though, Cain withstood the attacks fairly well. If anything, he may actually get a boost on the back of Perry's woes. On the other hand, Romney also performed well, emerging unscathed and solidifying his position as the favourite. He also had the benefit of an endorsement by Chris Christie just before the debate. According to Intrade, his chances of winning the nomination are now up to almost 70 per cent. It'll be difficult to beat him, but second-placed Cain is just two points behind in the polls, has much higher favourability ratings and leads in Iowa. His fundamentals look much stronger than Perry's did when he enjoyed a brief spell as the favourite. Now it's up to Cain to stop himself following Perry's descent from leader into laughing stock.
