Betting 2012-13 Season Long Bets
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I'm waiting for a payday until i start betting big again but i've got a couple on the cards. Villa relegated is my favourite so far.
At this stage it's very difficult to predict winners of leagues because the transfer window hasn't even got going. What I start doing now is start ruling teams out of contention for various reasons.
The first reason I rule teams out of contention is if they have a dodgy manager (Nigel Worthington, Bryan Robson, Steve McLaren, Alex mcLeish etc). The 2nd reason is finances, if a team have money issues and you reckon they won't be able to invest in good players. Thirdly, if a team starts the transfer window with a few dodgy signings e.g. not convinced by any of the 3 players Port Vale have signed so far whereas Leeds have signed a few good 'uns and been linked with others.
The 4th reason is just the current playing squad i.e. how they currently match up against the other teams in their league.
As leo mentions; I do a lot of backing of teams with a view to laying them at a later date. This though is only really easy to do on the top 2 divisions because there isn't usually enough liquidity in the market (for me) with the lower 2 divisions.
In an average season I will lay 4 or 5 fancied Championship heavily which could leave me with a £2,000 liability on those teams and with about £400 profit on everyone else. Then as the season goes on I trade almost on a daily basis. On average I win about £400-£500 per season betting like this. Every season bar last season the teams I lay don't feature heavily at the top of the table and I can sell my liability by September/October on most of them.
This season so far;
I am laying Birmingham because I'm not convinced about Clarke as new manager, they have no money and their squad is weaker than last season.
I was going to lay Forest, and i have a little, because they have a manager with a lot to prove still, they have only 1 player worthy of a top 3 team and they WERE short of cash but it looks as if they've just been bought by some rich Arab so I'm going to wait and see what happens. Even if they start flashing the cash though they need a lot of work done before I'd consider them.
I'll lay Derby because I don't think Nigel Clough is a particularly good manager and their squad is thoroughly average.
Laying Middlesbro as their best defender by a mile has done his cruciate again and they've lost their best midfielder, Barry Robson. Also they lack any decent money.
Laying Sheffield Wednesday as they don't have 1 player good enough for the top end of the division and they have plenty who will not be up to Championship standard.
Leeds & Millwall are the 2 teams who have invested well so far. Watford's new owners also own Udinese and Watford will proably be able to avail of some young Italian loanee's during the season. Added to that they have a great young player called Sean Murray who could really make an impact this season. Not sure about Zola as manager though.
I haven't looked to closely at the 1st division yet.
In the 2nd division; Rotherham have signed about 9 players so far and some of them are excellent. With Steve Evans in charge they're gonna be a dominant force this season and are rightly short favourites.
I don't know too much about Fleetwood but they must be decent having won the Conference last season. They've signed quite a few decent players AND 2 dynamite ones up front. If Steven Gillespie stays fit he will tear this league apart, he's Championship-standard and if he stays fit he'll prove it. Up front with him is Jon Parkin who is a monster of a player and will make plenty of space for Gillespie by battering the CB's around the pitch (and he'll bag quite a few goals himself).
For what it's worth; my main bet in the EPL will probably be a back of City winning the league again but I want to see De Jong sold first because he's not good enough and it will show that they're about to sign another top international midfielder.
The first reason I rule teams out of contention is if they have a dodgy manager (Nigel Worthington, Bryan Robson, Steve McLaren, Alex mcLeish etc). The 2nd reason is finances, if a team have money issues and you reckon they won't be able to invest in good players. Thirdly, if a team starts the transfer window with a few dodgy signings e.g. not convinced by any of the 3 players Port Vale have signed so far whereas Leeds have signed a few good 'uns and been linked with others.
The 4th reason is just the current playing squad i.e. how they currently match up against the other teams in their league.
As leo mentions; I do a lot of backing of teams with a view to laying them at a later date. This though is only really easy to do on the top 2 divisions because there isn't usually enough liquidity in the market (for me) with the lower 2 divisions.
In an average season I will lay 4 or 5 fancied Championship heavily which could leave me with a £2,000 liability on those teams and with about £400 profit on everyone else. Then as the season goes on I trade almost on a daily basis. On average I win about £400-£500 per season betting like this. Every season bar last season the teams I lay don't feature heavily at the top of the table and I can sell my liability by September/October on most of them.
This season so far;
I am laying Birmingham because I'm not convinced about Clarke as new manager, they have no money and their squad is weaker than last season.
I was going to lay Forest, and i have a little, because they have a manager with a lot to prove still, they have only 1 player worthy of a top 3 team and they WERE short of cash but it looks as if they've just been bought by some rich Arab so I'm going to wait and see what happens. Even if they start flashing the cash though they need a lot of work done before I'd consider them.
I'll lay Derby because I don't think Nigel Clough is a particularly good manager and their squad is thoroughly average.
Laying Middlesbro as their best defender by a mile has done his cruciate again and they've lost their best midfielder, Barry Robson. Also they lack any decent money.
Laying Sheffield Wednesday as they don't have 1 player good enough for the top end of the division and they have plenty who will not be up to Championship standard.
Leeds & Millwall are the 2 teams who have invested well so far. Watford's new owners also own Udinese and Watford will proably be able to avail of some young Italian loanee's during the season. Added to that they have a great young player called Sean Murray who could really make an impact this season. Not sure about Zola as manager though.
I haven't looked to closely at the 1st division yet.
In the 2nd division; Rotherham have signed about 9 players so far and some of them are excellent. With Steve Evans in charge they're gonna be a dominant force this season and are rightly short favourites.
I don't know too much about Fleetwood but they must be decent having won the Conference last season. They've signed quite a few decent players AND 2 dynamite ones up front. If Steven Gillespie stays fit he will tear this league apart, he's Championship-standard and if he stays fit he'll prove it. Up front with him is Jon Parkin who is a monster of a player and will make plenty of space for Gillespie by battering the CB's around the pitch (and he'll bag quite a few goals himself).
For what it's worth; my main bet in the EPL will probably be a back of City winning the league again but I want to see De Jong sold first because he's not good enough and it will show that they're about to sign another top international midfielder.
2 other thoughts........
Blackburn have signed Nuno Gomes, Leon Best and Danny Murphy so have to be seen as a threat despite reservations about the manager.
Norwich have signed an excellent young player, Danny Butterfield, from Barnsley. If he proves his fitness (ended the season with a bad injury) he could become a top player (in the Steven Gerrard mould but not as physical). I might look at betting against norwich getting relegated as they seem to be stengthening nicely and Lamberts absence should be filled adequately by Hughton.
Blackburn have signed Nuno Gomes, Leon Best and Danny Murphy so have to be seen as a threat despite reservations about the manager.
Norwich have signed an excellent young player, Danny Butterfield, from Barnsley. If he proves his fitness (ended the season with a bad injury) he could become a top player (in the Steven Gerrard mould but not as physical). I might look at betting against norwich getting relegated as they seem to be stengthening nicely and Lamberts absence should be filled adequately by Hughton.
Fleetwood sold Jamie Varney for £1M Pesam so they should be able to strengthen quite nicely. If they buy well a top 6 finish seems a good bet.
Leicester, Huddersfield, Leeds and Blackpool are my tips for a top 6 finish in the championship.
I'm betting on palace to get relegated.
Leicester, Huddersfield, Leeds and Blackpool are my tips for a top 6 finish in the championship.
I'm betting on palace to get relegated.
I don't know much about Vardy but by replacing him with Gillespie and Parkin I think they're gonna be prolific this season if Gillespie, who is injury prone, stays fit.
Leicester should do well SummerO and Leeds are strengthening nicely and have Warnock in charge who knows how to win this league. Blackpool are an enigma, no matter how mnay times I watch them I can't figure out a discernible pattern of play but whatever system Hooloway uses it's usually quite effective.
IMO Huddersfield will struggle this season especially if they lose Jordan Rhodes who is the only player likely to shine at the Championship level.
Palace are the favourites to sign one of my favourite players Roos McCormack and if they play him up front with Murray they should score enough to finish comfortably mid-table.
Leicester should do well SummerO and Leeds are strengthening nicely and have Warnock in charge who knows how to win this league. Blackpool are an enigma, no matter how mnay times I watch them I can't figure out a discernible pattern of play but whatever system Hooloway uses it's usually quite effective.
IMO Huddersfield will struggle this season especially if they lose Jordan Rhodes who is the only player likely to shine at the Championship level.
Palace are the favourites to sign one of my favourite players Roos McCormack and if they play him up front with Murray they should score enough to finish comfortably mid-table.
Sold my liability on Forest as they have been taken over by some Kuwaiti's who may or may not have money. Also they've just fired their manager Steve Cotterill who would not have got them promotion. I'll wait to see who they appoint as manager before any further decisions.
The more I look at the Championship the more I'm convinced Bolton should win it convincingly.
Beginning to place a few bets now on The Championship............As I mentioned before I've layed Birmingham, Middlesbro, Sheff Wednesday, Charlton & Leicester and lose £800 if any of these win.
I have now backed Bolton, Forest (who I had originally layed) and Blackburn and win about £500 on Bolton or Blackburn and £300 on Forest.
On the other 16 teams I make a profit of about £120.
I have now backed Bolton, Forest (who I had originally layed) and Blackburn and win about £500 on Bolton or Blackburn and £300 on Forest.
On the other 16 teams I make a profit of about £120.
Their away kit is awful so i hope they go down for that.
If they go down mate i'll be buying one out of my winnings to act as a permanent reminder of my fantastic punting ability.
I don't think Fulham will go down but at 18/1 it might be worth a shot. If they lose Dempsey & Dembele they will struggle to replace them.
As things stand I would guess the bottom of the table might finish something like.......................
14. Fulham
15. Norwich
16. WBA
17. Swansea
18. Wigan
19. Southampton
20. Reading
I'll revisit this post before the season starts because any transfers between now and then will affect these predictions.
QPR have invested wisely and could finish top half.
As things stand I would guess the bottom of the table might finish something like.......................
14. Fulham
15. Norwich
16. WBA
17. Swansea
18. Wigan
19. Southampton
20. Reading
I'll revisit this post before the season starts because any transfers between now and then will affect these predictions.
QPR have invested wisely and could finish top half.
I fancy a couple of strange bets.
Stoke to finish rock bottom at 31/1
Bent top scorer at 43/1
Stoke to finish rock bottom at 31/1
Bent top scorer at 43/1
Not many, got a City/Leeds/Rotherham multiple (£20) can't remember the odds though did it ages ago
If city or Utd start shit i'm saving back some cash to lump on them if the odds lower a lot
If city or Utd start shit i'm saving back some cash to lump on them if the odds lower a lot
I'm still in the process of narrowing it down. So far I' ve narrowd the winners of the division down to.................
Premier League
City or Chelsea
Championship
Bolton, Leeds, Wolves or Blackburn (surprise team for the playoffs could be Millwall)
1st Division
Doncaster or Sheffield United (I've doen the least amount of research on this division so far and it looks very difficult to predict anyway. Of all the divisions this could have a surrpise winner i.e. Swindon, Colchester etc).
2nd Division
Fleetwood
Rotherham
Oxford
Bradford
If I had to pick an accumulator now I'd go for City, Bolton, Doncaster, Fleetwood.
Right I suppose I have to come to some conclusions now, it's very difficult especially in the 2 lower divisons. My tips are as follows
1. = My prediction
2. = The Team I think will push them close
3. = Possible surprise contenders
4. = Possible surprise strugglers
1. Man City
2. Man Utd
3. Liverpool
4. Spurs will finish outside top 6 by a distance.
1. Bolton
2. Blackburn or Leeds (IMO it's a 3 horse race in this division)
3. Millwall
4. Sheffield Wednesday
1. Preston
2. MK Dons
3. Preston would be a big surprise.
4. Sheffield United
1. Rotherham
2. Fleetwood
3. Bradford City
4. Torquay United
.
1. = My prediction
2. = The Team I think will push them close
3. = Possible surprise contenders
4. = Possible surprise strugglers
1. Man City
2. Man Utd
3. Liverpool
4. Spurs will finish outside top 6 by a distance.
1. Bolton
2. Blackburn or Leeds (IMO it's a 3 horse race in this division)
3. Millwall
4. Sheffield Wednesday
1. Preston
2. MK Dons
3. Preston would be a big surprise.
4. Sheffield United
1. Rotherham
2. Fleetwood
3. Bradford City
4. Torquay United
.
Sorry Leo, I'm on a 10 day bender in Czech Republic for Xmas so my response time is very slow and dependent on wifi.
The only way really to lay it off is on Betfair, have you got an account? If so then just lay the 2.78 until the amount you win on Cardiff pretty much balances the amount you win on the others. If you have 10 on Cardiff @ 17.5 then you will get 165 profit back so if you lay about 60 @ 2.8 I think (I'm hungover and doing maths in my head, not a good combination) you'll cover all eventualities for a similar return ie about 50 profit.
The only way really to lay it off is on Betfair, have you got an account? If so then just lay the 2.78 until the amount you win on Cardiff pretty much balances the amount you win on the others. If you have 10 on Cardiff @ 17.5 then you will get 165 profit back so if you lay about 60 @ 2.8 I think (I'm hungover and doing maths in my head, not a good combination) you'll cover all eventualities for a similar return ie about 50 profit.
Cheers Pesam.
Just done that, now hoping for the annual Cardiff collapse.
Either way it's a nice profit.
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