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‘It is like quicksand’ – the inside story of Liverpool’s unravelling season and what it means
Adam Crafton and more Mar 12, 2021
Other contributors: Simon Hughes and James Pearce
On the morning after Liverpool’s sixth home Premier League defeat in a row, this time against 18th-placed side Fulham, one senior player confided in his representative.
“He said it is like they are playing in quicksand,” the agent says. “It is like they are sinking down and feel this total loss of control over what is happening to them at Anfield. Nobody has an explanation, nobody can pinpoint why or how it is happening this severely. It is as though they cannot stop it.”
In the space of 67 days, Liverpool’s domestic season has imploded. After leading the Premier League on January 4, Liverpool are now closer in points (17) to the relegation zone than they are to leaders Manchester City (25). Now eighth, Jurgen Klopp’s side are seven points behind the Champions League places and his team have conceded more goals than any other side in the top half of the division.
Since beating Crystal Palace 7-0 in mid-December, Liverpool have failed to win 11 of their last 14 Premier League matches and did not score a goal in eight of those fixtures. Prior to January’s 1-0 defeat by Burnley, Liverpool were unbeaten in 68 Premier League games at Anfield but have now lost six top-flight home matches in a row for the first time. It is the highest number of home league defeats since the 1953-54 season when Liverpool were relegated.
The decline is staggering and compelling in its speed and intensity. This week, just eight months on from Liverpool’s first title in 30 years, the back pages of newspapers carried stories about Klopp’s future. The club privately insist that American owners Fenway Sports Group (FSG) stand by the German coach and believe he can arrest the alarming slide. Klopp then distanced himself from the soon-to-be-vacant managerial role with the German national team. He has particularly appreciated strong personal backing from FSG president Mike Gordon.
Klopp’s side may be toiling but the manager’s stock remains high both on Merseyside and in his native Germany. Bayern Munich are long-time admirers and Klopp’s name is never too far from the thoughts of their chairman Karl-Heinz Rummenigge, who has made previous attempts to coax the coach back to Germany.
Indeed, should Bayern’s current coach Hansi Flick take up the German national team position, Klopp will likely figure high on Rummenigge’s wishlist for his replacement. All the way back in 2008, Rummenigge plumped for Jurgen Klinsmann, rather than Klopp, and regrets overlooking the latter coach to this day.
In 2018, Bayern asked Klopp to return to Germany but the coach declined. A well-placed source suggested that the executive’s interest in Klopp is so long-standing as to be a “burning desire” and some observers made a link between Klopp’s personal Adidas endorsement and Bayern also having an Adidas kit deal. This, however, is a misguided jump and Rummenigge has received no encouragement from Klopp to suggest Bayern is a destination in line with the coach’s short-to-medium term ambitions. As such, Bayern are greasing the wheels on a move for Red Bull Leipzig coach Julian Nagelsmann, should Flick leave the club this summer.
A source explained that Klopp’s commitment to Liverpool will only be intensified by recent setbacks. They said: “The less successful Jurgen is the more stubborn he becomes to get his team back to the levels and success they had before. Being in a bad position means he definitely will not leave.”
The mood at Liverpool was lifted by progress to the Champions League quarter-finals. Yet there is an acceptance from all involved that current domestic events are unacceptable, particularly when an absence from the Champions League will cost the club at least £40 million. Over the past week,
The Athletic has spoken to numerous sources close to the players, dressing room and club to build a picture over how those involved currently feel about a malaise that has gripped a team and a coach feted as heroes only last year.
Liverpool, as it stands, is not a leaky club. It is not the kind of viper’s nest that Chelsea became by the end of Frank Lampard’s period at the club, or Manchester United’s closing episode with Jose Mourinho, where accusatory fingers were pointed in all directions. Yet reasons have been highlighted, including a mounting injury list, a psychological comedown after three years of success, the unusual circumstances of football during a pandemic and the personal tragedies that overwhelmed the club when Klopp’s mother passed away in January and then goalkeeper Alisson lost his father in February.
There has been some constructive criticism, most notably over Klopp’s resistance to tweaking his preferred system of play, while the behaviour of Mohamed Salah’s agent and the club’s failure to recruit a centre-half before the close of the summer transfer window attracts scrutiny. Detailed accounts of January’s late trolley-dash for centre-backs Ozan Kabak and Ben Davies do raise justified question marks over the club’s recruitment policy for the first time in a long time. Liverpool, as they always do, will review internal practices to avoid a repeat of the injury crisis that ravaged their campaign. The accumulation of factors have conspired dramatically, to leave club icon Jamie Carragher describing a descent from “mentality monsters” to “mentality midgets”.
Ten matches remain in the Premier League and Liverpool, who are still to face Arsenal, Aston Villa, Manchester United and Leeds, must overturn a seven-point deficit to claim the fourth Champions League position. They are, of course, still in the Champions League and should Klopp’s side lift the trophy, qualification for next season’s tournament would be dramatically guaranteed. Yet internally, the club is bracing for impact.
It is complicated to assess how much, exactly, Liverpool would stand to lose financially by missing out, as the economic benefits often depend on how far a team goes in the tournament and the full commercial advantages of participation are not publicly disclosed.
The Athletic has made a calculation based on projected reduced Premier League merit payments, along with Champions League broadcasting payments and likely rewards for success within the tournament itself. Our calculation also presumes — albeit far from a guarantee — that Liverpool will qualify for Europa League football if they miss out on the Champions League.
Under this assessment, it is estimated that Liverpool would miss out on around £50 million but that figure excludes any potential ramifications in terms of the extra commercial impact that may affect revenue streams. Internally, Liverpool set the figure a little lower, with the overall impact considered to be around £40 million, should Liverpool manage to at least secure a Europa League place. Liverpool’s costs would be reduced in that scenario as many of Liverpool’s contracts for coaching staff and players include percentage reductions if the club do not qualify for the Champions League.
In addition,
The Athletic can reveal that Liverpool’s £30-million-per-season Nike kit deal does not contain a penalty clause if Liverpool spend a season out of the Champions League. However, should Liverpool fail to qualify for a second consecutive season, Nike have insisted upon a small percentage drop in the base income. In addition, Liverpool would miss out on incentives included in their deal with Nike, such as a £2 million bonus for winning the Premier League, in addition to a £4 million bonus for lifting the Champions League or £2 million for finishing as runners-up. The latter clauses are of course still available to Liverpool in the tournament this season.
Liverpool’s financial prospects have also been hampered by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on merchandise sales. Liverpool’s £30 million guaranteed income is lower than the £50-million-per-year deals that Tottenham and Chelsea previously negotiated with Nike and less than the £45 million base income included in their previous deal with New Balance. Liverpool expected to overcome this differential and make significant gains by securing 20 per cent of the net sales of Nike-produced Liverpool products. The club hoped this would outdo the higher basic income on offer from New Balance. Moreover, Nike insisted that influencers such as musician Drake and tennis star Serena Williams would support the promotion of Liverpool’s Nike merchandise.
Their hopes would have been boosted by Nike’s first kit for Liverpool being launched in the aftermath of the club’s first Premier League title. However, it is understood that initial income has been a little lower than originally hoped, partially due to the kit being launched later than usual due to the later start to this campaign while manufacturing and retail sectors were hit by the pandemic. As such, Liverpool’s hopes of yielding an overall return of between £60 million and £70 million would appear uncertain at this stage, although sources insisted the deal is “tracking well”.
Liverpool’s overall financial health does remain strong but it is also clear that the club do not have the financial muscle of Manchester City or Manchester United in the market. Since the 2019 summer transfer window, Liverpool have a net spend of around £4 million, while United, City, Arsenal and Tottenham have recorded net spend in excess of £150 million each during the same period.
This is not to say that Liverpool have not spent hugely significant fees on key positions, as we saw when the club signed Alisson, Virgil van Dijk and Diogo Jota, and it may just be that Liverpool have been in a different phase of their squad-building during the past two years. The club insist the money is available for Klopp to strengthen his squad this summer and insist it was there to be spent — on the right player — if he had been available in the past two windows. Reinforcements are now being prioritised at centre-half and centre-forward. Klopp is particularly hopeful he will be allowed to freshen up his front three positions.
A source close to Liverpool’s FSG owners insisted: “They are still 100 per cent behind Klopp. There is no chance of making a change this summer even being discussed. There’s a huge amount of sympathy for what Klopp has had to contend with this season. To lose three centre-backs to season-ending injuries is unprecedented. Yes, there are areas to address in the transfer market this summer but there’s also a feeling that things will look a lot different when Liverpool have players of the calibre of Virgil van Dijk and Joe Gomez back available.”
As Liverpool climbed to the top of the Premier League by the middle of December, leaving supporters dreaming of consecutive titles, the picture internally was not quite as unanimously rosy. There had been early season blips, including the 7-2 defeat against Aston Villa and three goals conceded in a home win over Leeds. Contrary to the current home form, Liverpool’s initial problems were away from Anfield, where they failed to win five of their first six away games of the league season.
A source close to several players recalls how, even then, players privately admitted they had started to feel “mentally drained” after three years in which the club had reached two Champions League finals and won the Premier League. On Sky Sports, Jamie Carragher demonstrated in February how senior players such as Trent Alexander-Arnold, Andrew Robertson, Georginio Wijnaldum, Mohamed Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mane had all played 83 per cent or more of the available Premier League minutes since the beginning of the 2018-19 Premier League season. It should be said that there are several players at rival clubs who have also carried a heavy burden for their own teams, while it is also the case that Liverpool did have a pre-season training camp in the summer, unlike the two Manchester clubs, who had European commitments going into the month of August.
In addition, sources at rival clubs identified the period between Liverpool’s defeat by Southampton on January 4 and the draw against Manchester United on January 17 as a time when the Liverpool players had space to recharge. This, they suggest, should have allowed players a reasonable amount of recovery time. In between, Liverpool had only a game against a heavily depleted Aston Villa in the FA Cup. Increasingly, however, sources close to Liverpool players speak not only of physical exhaustion but also a psychological malaise that has gripped the squad.
“They are spent and tired,” says a source. “Jurgen has to find a way to give these players a rest this summer. Pre-season will be crucial; there is always tension at leading clubs as commercial partners line up appearances but they have to get it right. Jurgen will want football first this summer.”
Indeed,
The Athletic understands that Liverpool are highly unlikely to appear in the International Champions’ Cup in the USA or China this summer, as the club will instead organise a training base in Europe. The club, at this point in the pandemic, believe that camps and opponents will be more straightforward to organise, despite the slow pace of vaccination on the continent.
The injuries have, by now, been well-documented. Liverpool players have endured 47 absences in the Premier League this season, with an absence defined by expert
Ben Dinnery as an occasion when a player has been unavailable due to illness or injury for at least one game, and this is the highest number in the division.
Liverpool’s players have missed a cumulative total of 178 Premier League games between them, compared to other leading teams such Leicester (121), Manchester United (109), Manchester City (93), Tottenham (68) and Chelsea (50). Crystal Palace are top but 40 per cent of their total is from three players.
The season-ending injuries to Van Dijk and Gomez triggered a chaotic situation in the Liverpool defence, where there have been 18 central defensive partnerships. In the more peculiar corners of social media, individual staff members have at times been castigated for the run of injuries, but internally there is confidence in the personnel who work in the club’s medical and conditioning team.
There is, however, an acceptance that the club’s run of injuries should be studied to prevent a repeat and the club is constantly reviewing its processes and searching for new innovations. In some cases, Liverpool have been plain unlucky. Van Dijk and Thiago suffered serious injuries as a result of poor challenges at Everton. Gomez’s season ended in a training session with England. In some cases, internal sources are questioning whether the requirement of playing in different positions, such as Fabinho and Henderson, has triggered different body movements to inflame strains and tears. Certainly, Liverpool are exploring what may be done to prevent any repeat of the muscle injuries suffered this season.
