Betting Season 2015-16 predictions

[Pesam]

I used to spend every spare minute researching my football bets and watching EVERY televised lower league match. Having an 11 month old baby at home means that these days there's no such thing as spare time. For this reason I'm going to focus my attention on just one division (The Championship) in the theory that I only have 24 teams to focus on and not all 72. The main reasons I've chosen The Championship are because there will be more games shown than the lower 2 leagues and there is more liquidity in the betting market for this division.

I will do a bit of research on the lower divisions this week and post my predictions as I go along.

I've got Derby and Middlesbro heavily backed and a smaller bets on potential dark horses Leeds. I've also layed Burnley, Forest, Ipswich, Wolves and Reading.

If Fulham sign Dwight Gayle (he'd be awesome for them up top with McCormack) I'll be backing them too.

I'll expand on a few of these thoughts as the week goes on and I'll make a few predictions for the other divisions.

Anyone any suggestions/hunches?

 

[Athens]

I've a few questions, do people still play the pools these days & how successful are you at this?

 

[Pesam]

I've a few questions, do people still play the pools these days & how successful are you at this?

I never played the pools, I don't think it's still in existence. I was never even sure how it worked.

 

[Athens]

I never played the pools, I don't think it's still in existence. I was never even sure how it worked.

There's a version of it here that's still pretty popular. But it's not just Greek matches, they have matches from all over Europe. One day a relative of the wife asked me, who's better UCD or Cork city? I was in shock that he had heard of them until he explained what it was.

 

[Leo]

I've done 3 bets so far.

A double of Derby and Luton to get promoted at 6 ta 1.

Coventry to win League One at 25-1 not really a huge fancy but the league looks wide open this season.

Sam Baldock to be Championship top goalscorer at 74s matched just a small bet again so not really confident or anything but I really fancy the promotion double to click.

 

[nealmac]

The pools was basically an accumulator as far as I can remember. Never did it myself though.

I usually do 4 or 5 trebles per week, and usually at least 1 of them (2 if I'm lucky) will go my way. I always do them on unknown teams, picking the favourite each time, as long as the price isn't something stupid that would make it pointless. For example, I would back any teams with odds less than evens.

 

[Pesam]

I've done 3 bets so far.

A double of Derby and Luton to get promoted at 6 ta 1.

Coventry to win League One at 25-1 not really a huge fancy but the league looks wide open this season.

Sam Baldock to be Championship top goalscorer at 74s matched just a small bet again so not really confident or anything but I really fancy the promotion double to click.

I agree about League One being "open", it's proving very difficult to suggest a winner. I like Sheff Utd but their best player Done is out for 5 or 6 weeks and they still lack a good CB. Millwall look dangerous with Morison and Gregory up front and Doncaster have bought well but I still have my doubts about Dickov as a manager.

In the end I've gone for Doncaster @ 18/1 but not with any great conviction.

Sam Baldock is a very good shout in the championship because of the price. I don't understand anyone backing short priced players for this when an injury can rob you of any chance and if your player has 15+ by Xmas the EPL teams will be trying to sign him. Baldock probably won't attract too much attention from the EPL teams even if he does score loads by Xmas and he is capable of going on a scoring spree.

I'm waiting to see where Dwight Gayle goes as rumour is he's leaving Palace to go to Middlesbro or Fulham. If it's a season long loan then that will negate the worry of him being snapped up in the winter transfer window.

I can't see anyone other than Derby or Middlesbro winning the Championship. IMO their squads are significantly better than anyone elses.

 

[Pesam]

I can't back Portsmouth in the 2nd division....7/2 is far too short a price. I've gone for Luton (even though their price isn't too much bigger @ 11/2). They have signed one of my favourite (and one of the most criminally under-used/mis-used players in the lower divisions) Danny Green. If they play him in every game he will creat a hatful of chances for the forward(s).

A front 4 of .................
.........................Green..........Mackail-Smith...........McCourt
..........................................McQuoid*................................

They will score bucket loads.

*If Paul Benson is fully fit and not showing signs of wear-and-tear maybe him ahead of McQuoid.

Exeter are my dark horses @ 40/1..............If Lee Holmes and Will Hoskins are fit throughout the season (which they won't be as they are hugely injury-prone) I would back them ahead of Luton

 

[Pesam]

Right my league accumulator is

Liverpool 25/1
Derby 6/1
Doncaster 18/1
Exeter 40/1

Over 100,000/1

I have £10 on Falcao top goalscorer @ 33/1. This is a complete punt as he has looked useless since he came to England BUT I'm led to believe he was brilliant. If Costa's injury is gonna keep him out for a few games I'm speculating that Falcao will get the gig and if he re-finds his form.............

I have a very big bet on Ranger to win the Scot Championship at odds from 1/2 to 4/7. IMO this is a foregone conclusion. The appointment of Warburton was brilliant and he has signed some very good players. IMO they will have the league wrapped up by Xmas.

I have a couple of hundred on LFC to win the league at 30/1 and considerably more on us to finish top 6 at 1/3 (again i consider this a "certainty").

I have backed and layed nearly every team in the Championship.........I lose £800ish on Hull, Ipswich, Wolves, Forest, MK Dons, Preston, Burnley and Reading and I win £500+ on everybody else.

I don't usually invest this heavily on season-long bets but as I mentioned previously, with an 11 month old baby to entertain at weekends I'm not going to be able to do as much wheeling-dealing every week and will consequently be lowering my weekly bets considerably in favour of long term bets which will be easier for me to keep an eye on and adjust gradually.

 

[Pesam]

Speculative bets but I've stuck £5 on Ings top EPL scorer @ 130/1 and £5 Falcao @ 90/1.

Reasoning being Ings will probably start at home to Villa and I'm confident he'll score; if he scores 2 or more he'll probably get a decent run in the team even when Benteke and Studge are fit. I believe he's good enough to score often enough to force himself in the team.....after that who knows.

Costa has had a poor start to the season and now misses the next 3 games. If falcao gets a start at the weekend and scores a goal or 2 he could become their preferred striker.

With the favourites for the top goalscorer title (Aguero, Benteke, Rooney, Kane etc) all struggling nobody is setting the world alight and one of the 2 aforementioned could gatecrash the party.

 

[Leo]

Heh.
I was looking at this market too after the weekend.
I've stuck 20 quid on Lukaku at 33-1.
Everton are creating lots of chances this season and the way everyone one else is playing and most are injury prone it feels like a decent bet.
Might also back Falcoa looking at that price @Pesam it looks massive.

 

[Pesam]

Heh.
I was looking at this market too after the weekend.
I've stuck 20 quid on Lukaku at 33-1.
Everton are creating lots of chances this season and the way everyone one else is playing and most are injury prone it feels like a decent bet.
Might also back Falcoa looking at that price @Pesam it looks massive.

Up to this point in his career Lukaku has been far too inconsistent IMO to be considered a potential top goalscorer although maybe this will be his "break through" season. Unfortunately it looks like martial could be a threat.