I know it’s early, but based on the transfer window so far and just your hunch how would you rank the title chances of the top 4 teams (Liverpool, Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea) next season?
Liverpool
Last season’s points tally: 84
Additions: Wirtz, Kerkez, Frimpong, Mamardashvili
Potential additions: A new #9 and a like-for-like replacement for anyone leaving
Losses: Trent, Kelleher, Quansah, Jota RIP 🙁
Potential losses: Konate, Nunez, Diaz, Elliott, Chiesa
Arsenal
Last season’s points tally: 74
Additions: Gyokeres, Zubimendi, Madueke, Norgaard, Kepa
Potential additions: Eze
Losses: #Partey#, £
Potential losses: Martinelli
Man City
Last season’s points tally: 71
Additions: Reijnders, Cherki, Ait-Nouri, Rodri returning from the ACL
Potential additions: A new RB, another winger
Losses: De Bruyne, Grealish
Potential losses: Bernardo Silva, Gundogan, Nico Gonzalez
Chelsea
Last season’s points tally: 69
Additions: Pedro, Delap, Gittens
Potential additions: Every winger or striker under the s*n
Losses: Sancho, Chilwell, Madueke
Potential losses: Nicholas Jackson, Nkunku
Before I try to answer my own question, I want to make a general point that the fans and pundits alike consistently overestimate the importance of last season’s results to predicting the new one. When we finished 3rd in Klopp’s last season no one gave us a chance of being title contenders next season; when a team finishes at the top everyone assumes they will perform just as well next season, even though in reality it’s extremely hard to maintain consistent level of performance (I would say statistically a drop-off or an improvement of some sort is much more likely than standing still). I think there is more natural fluctuation in form and results between seasons than people realize and even absent any transfers teams and players can just have bad seasons and good seasons for no apparent reason at all - of course there are always underlying reasons, but they are usually quite subtle and mostly invisible to us fans at least until the season is done.
So all this to say I see no reason why Chelsea can’t jump from 4th to the top or why Arsenal or us are necessarily guaranteed a top-2 finish next season. I don’t see another team “invading” the top 4 at this point - the gap in quality between the best and the rest is just too big and is likely to get only bigger - but between those big 4, literally any combination is possible. So my answer, as unsatisfying as it might be, is that at present there is no clear favourite next season - anyone between us, Arsenal, Chelsea and City has a roughly equal 25% chance to finish at the top or in any of the 3 positions below. A lot will depend on luck, individual player form and fitness and starting the season well.
Liverpool
Last season’s points tally: 84
Additions: Wirtz, Kerkez, Frimpong, Mamardashvili
Potential additions: A new #9 and a like-for-like replacement for anyone leaving
Losses: Trent, Kelleher, Quansah, Jota RIP 🙁
Potential losses: Konate, Nunez, Diaz, Elliott, Chiesa
Arsenal
Last season’s points tally: 74
Additions: Gyokeres, Zubimendi, Madueke, Norgaard, Kepa
Potential additions: Eze
Losses: #Partey#, £
Potential losses: Martinelli
Man City
Last season’s points tally: 71
Additions: Reijnders, Cherki, Ait-Nouri, Rodri returning from the ACL
Potential additions: A new RB, another winger
Losses: De Bruyne, Grealish
Potential losses: Bernardo Silva, Gundogan, Nico Gonzalez
Chelsea
Last season’s points tally: 69
Additions: Pedro, Delap, Gittens
Potential additions: Every winger or striker under the s*n
Losses: Sancho, Chilwell, Madueke
Potential losses: Nicholas Jackson, Nkunku
Before I try to answer my own question, I want to make a general point that the fans and pundits alike consistently overestimate the importance of last season’s results to predicting the new one. When we finished 3rd in Klopp’s last season no one gave us a chance of being title contenders next season; when a team finishes at the top everyone assumes they will perform just as well next season, even though in reality it’s extremely hard to maintain consistent level of performance (I would say statistically a drop-off or an improvement of some sort is much more likely than standing still). I think there is more natural fluctuation in form and results between seasons than people realize and even absent any transfers teams and players can just have bad seasons and good seasons for no apparent reason at all - of course there are always underlying reasons, but they are usually quite subtle and mostly invisible to us fans at least until the season is done.
So all this to say I see no reason why Chelsea can’t jump from 4th to the top or why Arsenal or us are necessarily guaranteed a top-2 finish next season. I don’t see another team “invading” the top 4 at this point - the gap in quality between the best and the rest is just too big and is likely to get only bigger - but between those big 4, literally any combination is possible. So my answer, as unsatisfying as it might be, is that at present there is no clear favourite next season - anyone between us, Arsenal, Chelsea and City has a roughly equal 25% chance to finish at the top or in any of the 3 positions below. A lot will depend on luck, individual player form and fitness and starting the season well.